I seriously doubt the CEO is going to BS anyone....he never has before. I think this was the year they were planning to be solidly profitable but that plan went out the window the middle of last year when he decided the battery market was going to be so huge he just had to enter it.
In the end ENPH will benefit from it, as it won't be viewed as a one trick pony anymore.
Let's hope all the experts, and our CEO, is right....and the battery/storage market is an untapped explosion just waiting to happen.
Of course they're manipulating the price down....they're shorting it knowing they can just cover with the extra shares they get. It's not called a death spiral deal for nothing. UNXL management was either very stupid or very desperate to make this deal. But it's completely legal. Usually this is a funding mechanism of last resort, and it almost always results in the death of the company. The reason is the lower the share price goes the more shares they accumulate. To get out of it you have to raise cash....and how many shares would UNXL have to sell to raise 10M at this point?
The problem now is they acquired debt...first time for that. Once you take on debt it forces you to perform or die.
SCON has played the game for 15 years, but never with debt. Always R/S (to stay listed) and new equity issued.
If management is smart and wants to keep getting paid they'll do a R/S and a secondary here very soon to pay off that debt.
"Are their batteries ready for prime time in Q1 of next year?"
I'm going to say, yes. I think it's pretty clear this is not a rush job for them. They've put a lot of thought and engineering into this project (and their profits for the last year....remember, they have higher gross margins than SEDG) and if you check out the end product it looks pretty solid (just plug it in and immediately integrates with current software).
But I thought ENPH was ridiculously priced at 10 (where I bought in), so what the heck do I know.
Based upon the share price...and the fact even good news can't move it....I'd say the idea earnings are going to be bad is baked into the minds of investors.
At this point I'm thinking the markets are so sure ENPH is losing market share that even one good earnings report won't change thinks....it will take two or three.
TSLA took a hit on the news, but from my standpoint this is great for ENPH. The overall market has to be huge or these big time players would not be attempting to enter it.
As far as I can tell, for the home market ENPH has a leg up on all of them with it's ease of installation and already available customer base.
It's still two or three quarters away, and we may trade down to 3 bucks in the meantime, but at some point if their battery sales take off I get the feeling the big institutions will take notice (where they seem completely disinterested now).
It's pretty clear that is exactly what the analysts on wall street think....as evidenced by the share price.
it's down twice the percentage of oil and 3X times the NASDAQ....and hit a new 52 week low today.
So yea, it does still seem to be hurting.
The good news, if there is any, is that the volume is finally starting to dry up (sellers exhausted). Last time we hit a new 52 week low a few days ago the volume was well over 1M.
Shorts and MM know how to play the game. If it cost them 200K share to knock out the low they'll go with it as long as they can pick up large amounts of shares (cover) below that. Last time it worked perfect, this time the volume just wasn't there to justify spending the capital to knock it lower.
I think they're going to need a catalysts like another downgrade or bad earnings to knock it lower with volume again.
MD has kind of been on auto pilot for the last three years. It's cheap, it works and banks love it...because of that. It's an easy sell.
But management needs to do something to justify their existence. If t hat's all they had to show for their efforts then why so many options? So they spend large amounts of cash generated from MD on new pet projects that make for good sound bites.
Thorton needs to dump the CEO and hire a marketing guy that can sell, not a tech guy (like the current one). Why? Because they need to raise the prices of MD...which will generate negative feedback and generated harder sales going forward. The banks will adjust, but it's take guts and sales moxy to make this move...which the current CEO does not have (and has proven it with USAA lawsuit).
It's not like this stock has not been very volatile before. Right after the IPO it dropped from 8 to 2 (75%) then ran 500% (2 to 10). Management never stepped in and I don't expect them to now.
Their growth rate is just as volatile, as was jumping up over 50% then dropped down to only 10% two years ago (when everyone concluded micros were dead (like they do now).
As for the analysts, they have no choice. Even though they look like idiots they'll look like even bigger idiots by having price targets of 400% gains. That makes them look "unprofessional" in the eyes of the investment community (their bosses).
They'll readjust later, if ENPH does recover (doesn't completely blow this quarter) and the share price recovers....which is why they always seems to downgrade at the bottom and upgrade at the top of large share price moves.
But hey, maybe this is the one time they're right and ENPH will miss and guide lower. That's what makes a market.
Say they did 95M and guided to 105M and lost 2 cents (possible). I wonder how the market would react? It's already trading for .5 times sales and has zero debt.
OKS is hedged for 4 dollars for NG for through 2015 (trading around 2.90 now) so they're fine for the rest of the year even if oil stays low. Since they are over 75% fee based (and increasing) my thinking is the distributions/forward projections are fairly safe. But even if they lose the hedge for 2016 and the price stays in the current range (which it has all year) the hit is only 50M (distributions are closer to 1B a year...meaning a few very small hit and one that will be dwarfed by other fee based projects coming on line).
I've been buying on the way down...averaging into a position of a tanking stock. I also plan to take the distributions and buy more anywhere under 40 dollars.
NG is usage is only going to grow in the US over time, completely replacing coal in electrical generation.
Reminds me of ASPS a few months back when I bought it around 23, convinced I was buying near the bottom and thought it was worth at least 30. A month later it nearly hit 12 before bouncing back. Two earnings announcements were the key....one just today.
My other comparison, which seems to be a few weeks trading ahead of ENPH is VJET. It's down from 70 a couple years back...but really from the 10-12 range a few months back. Both settled in the 7.50 range for a bit, then tanked again. VJET bottomed a couple week back at 5.58 (at least for now) whereas ENPH has bottomed (at least for the next few seconds) at 5.55.
As a side note, ENPH's RSI has really been in the oversold range for a very long time now (30)....since it last traded at 9....over a month ago. That's a long time to stay oversold...but doesn't mean it can't stay there longer.
My opinion at this time is not to expect any movement until there is some serious news (buyout or merger) or earnings. A chart as ugly as ENPH's over the last 3 months needs time to heal.
It's kind of strange right now. Some REIT's are selling for prices that will get you a 10% dividend going forward.
Maybe everyone wants to be in tech?
I'm OK with that....I already lived through one tech bubble, I"m not interested in living through another one.
They also have the market rigged for small cap stocks. A classic example is if I want to buy 5000 shares of ENPH my order has to show 5000 on the bid. If an institution wants to buy 5000 they can show 100 shares on the bid and hide the rest. The logic is if they had to really show they were buying 50,000 shares the price would run away from them and institutions would simply move away from ever buying small cap stocks. Of course, this logic is worthless considering they do it will all stocks.
So what are you implying? The 60% price drop in that time was a conspiracy to get rid of the small investors?
If that was their goal, guess it worked.
ENPH did not even have a commercial product until Q1 of this year. They've been using the smaller residential micros in the commercial area. With the release of the C250 that has changed and they state expectation are commercial sales to run from 15% of their business to 20% by the end of this year.
"You probably do not want to hear this, but perhaps 15-20 years to return to all time highs."
If they keep paying me 9% plus for the next 20 years I"m perfectly OK with the share price going anywhere it wants.