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joebigbuck 450 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 27, 2016 6:04 AM Member since: Jan 22, 1999
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  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 29, 2016 7:09 PM Flag

    It's not in their transcript...it was in an analyst's note after the call.

    It's kind of secret SEDG would rather not publicize.

    I posted the quote here at the time before running with it ever since.

    Kind of like the 1.7% number.

    It's just part of digging.

    Would I lie to you?

    If you're really determined just check my posts since the C.C....it's there.

    Maybe later tonight I'll get motivated to look for it. Right now I have to pack for my two month trip (just in case you wonder why I stopped posting again).

    I'll be coming near to your country....I guess that's supposed to be secret also though.

    BTW....my confidence and research techniques come from experience. I've been through this before (a few times actually). A few years back I bought a stock initially for about 1 dollar and it dropped to 10 cents (where I bought a boat load). Many called me crazy (way worse things then others here as the share price tanked.....but I just posted where my research led me.

    I ended up selling most of my shares for 10 dollars a couple years later.....and changed my alias as I don't need or want anyone following me around (I still have the alias though).

    The time before that I started buying one for around 5 on it's way to 1....I sold most of those for around 50 (still have that alias, too).

    I'm still friends with both CEO's...but I have never spoken to Nahi (but he seems like a nice guy). I'll probably call him next year when the trends start to become more obvious to the market

    Anyway, I don't post here for me....I post here for guys like Beans that have no clue how to make money investing. It's OK if he passes, as it's OK to me if everybody passes.

    Because like I said...the share price will take care of itself if the trends remain intact (as I expect).

    So after I'm right here, please don't follow me around.

    However, if I am wrong I will keep this alias active. I also like for posters to remind me when I make mistakes. It keeps one humble:).

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 29, 2016 3:43 PM Flag

    "I have only one question to you: how come such a seasoned investor gets his ONLY information from quotes of executives of a company he is investing in, from the website and application notes of the same company and from distributors that are selling exclusively products of the very same company? I just wonder, do you really believe the due diligence you are doing is unbiased and makes a good service to you? I really do not care, just curious."

    What are talking about? I've leaned lots from you:).

    But I stick with what works for me.....

    And you'd be very mistaken if you think those are my only sources.

    Your mistake is thinking the share price is telling you everything you need to know about the company.

    Sometimes it is....as in SUNE....but sometimes the markets have a serious disconnect.

    But if this was easy everyone would be rich...including Beans.

    It's also why I don't get frustrated when the share price tanks. I don't really care about the share price today....I care about the business trends. What I've leaned a million times over is the share price will ALWAYS TAKE CARE OF ITSELF if the underlying trends remain in tact. The key to wealth is identifying those trends before it becomes obvious to the markets.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 29, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    I was speaking about SEDG's 10% decline in international REVENUES vs ENPH's 4% sequential increase.

    I've posted the link before...just not curious enough to dig since SEDG makes it hard to find.

    I just read it from an analyst that spoke with their CEO....always easier when the CEO answers the your phone call.

    I wish someone would ask them about their optimizer failure rate vs string inverter.

    Once SEDG gets near 28 I'll go look it up again...because I'll have a short vested interest at that time.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 29, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    "Instead of talking about a nebulous concept, what exactly is the advantage that Enphase data has over other sources that will help Enphase revenues?"

    Glad you asked, but if you doing your research instead of posting nonsense here all day you'd know that question was asked by an analyst during the C.C. a few weeks back.

    Notice how they state they "monetized" this feature for the first time...new future revenue stream?

    This also leads uninformed investors with misconceptions. For instance, if all they do is compare ENPH's price per watt to SEDG's price per watt you may think the numbers are standing pat when in reality they are moving rapidly together.

    "Right. It is a great question. We have long been a proponent of leveraging the solar systems out there as grid assets, and leveraging that for both increased visibility on the grid as well as more and more control and stability. To our point, our relationship with Hawaiian Electric has proven to be very beneficial, I think, to both parties, and it did represent the first time we've been able to monetize those features.

    We just recently presented at DistribuTECH, and the result there was probably just short of overwhelming. We are now engaged with multiple utilities all across the US in many different ways. Whether it is to help in terms of grid stabilization, whether it's to work with them on the rollout of solar programs in their regions, the solar systems there will also act as resources for the grid to help stabilize the grid. So there's a tremendous amount of work going on within groups inside of Enphase to accelerate that.

    The only challenge there is that utilities by definition tend to move a little bit slower. So I think that in terms of materiality, we're looking at probably 2017, but there's a tremendous amount of work going on today, and we are going to be in trials with multiple utilities across the US, both for storage as well as solar as assets and as controllable assets on the grid this year."

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 29, 2016 1:31 PM Flag

    "1. They are not making money selling microinverters after 10 years."

    Really, so where did the 100M they spend developing new products (storage) yet to hit the market come from?

    "2. A newer architecture has been developed that splits the functions between the roof and the wall and that is so far selling much better."

    What we know is SEDG had 1.7% of the market until SCTY pushed them hard (450M per year in marketing). Some have bought into the misconception SEDG's dramatic growth the last couple years is related to their superior tech when it was really just simple marketing.

    "3. The initial reviews of the battery are more negative than positive."

    They are not even on the market yet....reviews I've read are good.

    "4. Management has put the company in a very high risk financial position"

    Don't be stupid. They have over 100M in working capital available to them and their new product line has not even hit the market yet.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 29, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    I've just never heard this from any other company...or the Hawaii experience. I'm thinking ENPH does have a serious advantage that's yet to be monetized.

    "“We collect 850 Gbs of data per day, almost a terabyte of data per day on 250,000 systems in 80 countries. We have an incredible amount of intelligence out deep in the network that now we’re starting to leverage,” Belur said"

    As for India and M215's...aren't they like most like some European markets (Germany) where the new "S" inverter is required? I don't know for sure...but until that model was released the sales in India were zero.

    It's also pretty cool you can see exactly in India where the sales are occurring. Right now it's centered in one specific area of Sir Lanka. My guess is Enphase set up shop there with one installer and he's going to down.
    The beauty of this is if one tiny area can have that much action that quick after setting up shop what will growth in the other areas look like going forward?

    If India really is going to become the largest market for solar in a very short time I'd say Enphase is hitting the ground running.

    It will be interesting on their next C.C. as to how the international markets are playing out. My guess is the trend will continue where ENPH is showing growth and SEDG declining.

  • Reply to

    3 More Enphase Systems Online in India

    by solarkings Mar 2, 2016 10:06 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 29, 2016 3:45 AM Flag

    Enphase's microinverters and battery can be set up to be used as back up power. It's not an issue for me, and clearly not a market ENPH is going after, but if someone wanted to go through the extra steps it certainly can be done.

    "AC Coupling allows use of Enphase Microinverters with off-grid and battery-based photovoltaic systems. These applications require a battery-based inverter to create a “micro grid” that the microinverters can then be connected to. This is generally referred to as AC coupling because the Enphase Microinverters and the battery-based inverters are “coupled” on their AC outputs.
    While these systems are more complicated than traditional grid interconnected systems, they can provide power during power outages, in emergency situations, and to remote locations. Enphase Microinverters, when AC coupled to a battery-based inverter system, offer advantages over other inverter technologies. This is because a microinverter system is divided into branch circuits to provide a tapered charge to the batteries. Offering more flexibility than string inverters, Enphase Microinverter systems can be AC coupled to a battery-based inverter system after installation, and the production capacity and critical loads can be increased or reconfigured to fit storage needs. Enphase Microinverters also offer the design flexibility, increased safety, and increased performance that come with modulelevel maximum power point tracking and monitoring."

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 28, 2016 9:18 PM Flag

    Anything that will increase solar usage is good news for ENPH since by 2018 their microinverters will be dominating the solar landscape.

    It's the just the way tech works.

    String inverters will simply not be able to compete when you can add a microinverter that will outlast the panel at factory level and it costs 30% less.

  • Reply to

    3 More Enphase Systems Online in India

    by solarkings Mar 2, 2016 10:06 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 28, 2016 9:04 PM Flag

    India is going to become the largest market in the world for solar in a very short time. I suspect ENPH will have a much easier time selling here since again there are no SCTY headwinds.

    Since SEDG has declining growth internationally (where they is zero benefit from SCTY), I suspect they'll concentrate their resources on the US market.

    As you know, SEDG had only 1.7% of the US market (with year over year flat revenues) until SCTY pushed them out of the minor leagues. On an international and country by country basis I wouldn't expect them to fair any better. Their declining international revenue may be a sign they are not even trying to compete.

    "IEEFA’s report, however, anticipates a China-like solar expansion in India, with the next five years characterized by accelerating growth that will echo China’s meteoric rise of 1 GW in 2010 to close to 33 GW at the end of 2014, says Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

    "India is replicating Germany’s and China’s systematic electricity sector transformation, with the added advantage that the cost effectiveness of this is accentuated by the fact that the price of solar electricity has dropped by 80% in five years," said IEEFA director of energy finance studies, Tim Buckley.

    The wider energy goal of the Indian government is to ringfence the country’s energy security, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has targeted renewable energy as the most likely route to energy independence. The goal is to hit 175 GW of solar PV, wind, and biomass generation by 2022, and the country has earmarked around $200 billion in investment required."

  • Reply to

    Why talk about batteries as sp continues to slide?

    by jryoung28 Mar 28, 2016 11:02 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 28, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    Other companies may follow ENPH's lead, but I have yet to hear of one that collects the amount of data every single day ENPH does (850 Gbs and growing) . I have also yet to hear of a single one do what ENPH did in Hawaii last year.

    The central role of data in a complete energy system of the type offered by Enphase and others – solar, storage, inverter (or micro-inverters) and a software-defined control and management system – means the solar industry could be well-positioned too.

    “Data as it relates to renewables – it is one tool to help in the integration of DG with the grid itself. The grid was not designed for this. Now for the first time, not only do we have generation occurring at the end nodes, in the distribution and transmission lines, but generation is now heading back into the grid,” Paul Nahi, Enphase’s CEO, says.

    “The ability for renewables to actually add to grid stability is what I think is being missed by most individuals.”

    We know more about what’s happening inside the network than even the utilities know. They don’t have access to this data
    Nahi says the usefulness of data collected by micro-inverters and other parts of a solar energy system at all scales could help smash a common perception that adding diverse distributed generation resources means losing visibility of what is going on in the network, versus a few centrally located, centrally dispatched assets like coal and nuclear.

    “The reality is that now, with those solar assets out there, we can leverage those assets to monitor the grid. Remember, in most cases we know more about what’s happening inside the network, in the distribution and transmission lines than even the utilities know. They don’t have access to this data.”

    Here is bit of another article:

    "“What we did in Hawaii, the first thing we did is we showed them [Hawaiian Electric] what’s going on in their networks. It was a visibility that they did not have prior to that. The inverter itself is capable of providing data on the DC side, the panel side, of the inverter itself as well as the AC side, so I know exactly what’s happening with the grid, I can pick out particular waveforms, I can do a lot just in terms of visibility.

    “So we were able to show Hawaiian Electric where the challenging spots were and where it wasn’t so challenging. They were able to open up a queue in the areas where it wasn’t so challenging, and in the areas where there were more issues – obviously with a lot of work with Hawaiian Electric – we were able to issue a command, with the proverbial push of a button, I would say almost literally a push of a button from our corporate offices, we were able to upgrade about 800,000 of our inverters to a new grid profile to help stabilise the grid.”

    As the utility later said, the Enphase project saved Hawaiian Electric a substantial sum of money, thought to be in the tens of millions of dollars, over what it would have cost to physically visit each site, assess and upgrade the inverters.

    Enphase has been evangelical about its devotion to data collection for some time. Nahi’s colleague and co-founder of the company, Raghu Belur, told PV Tech at the PV Expo show back in February that Enphase is constantly looking to use the vast amounts of data it collects through its installations in a number of ways to manage energy systems.

    “We collect 850 Gbs of data per day, almost a terabyte of data per day on 250,000 systems in 80 countries. We have an incredible amount of intelligence out deep in the network that now we’re starting to leverage,” Belur said.

  • Reply to

    Why talk about batteries as sp continues to slide?

    by jryoung28 Mar 28, 2016 11:02 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 28, 2016 11:53 AM Flag

    "1st order of busines for the new CEO - sell the battery business and cut R&D related to batteries."

    That horse has long since left the barn. The storage side R&D is basically over with....all 100M of it.

    The money being spent on R&D today is focused on cost reduction of their microinverters.

    The battery storage tech was also developed to compliment the rest of ENPH's "energy management system".

    At this point it would only have value to a company buying the entire company.

    Nahi thinks that in a few years every system using ENPH microinverters will have a storage side to it.

    At the moment that 100M spent is generating zero in revenues. But be patient. They've been working on putting the product together for four years and it will just hit the first market starting next quarter.

    Now maybe it will be a dud. But maybe not.

    But residential solar storage is going to rapidly become a multi-billion dollar industry (which is why everyone is jumping into it). Even if ENPH strikes out (I doubt it...but maybe) they won't be any worse off going forward because of it. It's not like the share price is reflecting some huge anticipation of growth from their storage line. Rather...it looks to me like it being a dud is already priced in (1/10th that of it's main competitor).

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 27, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    "Enphase management has decided that if it can't be done with microinverters, Enpahse can't do it. There is a lot that cannot or should not be done with microinverters."

    You do know Sonnen battery is VERY similar to ENPH in that it has an inverter enclosed within it's package?

    Sonnen just buys the battery from Sony then packages it with another companies inverter (don't know who's but it's not very inefficient 93%).

    While this is better than buying all the packages separately and throwing them together and messing with the warranty....why would I want a string inverter in my battery when I can have a microinverter that will last over 3X as long?

    The other huge advantage ENPH has it's battery fits perfectly with it's microinverters.

    ENPH is growing rapidly in AUS (probably number one for inverters) and once you install ENPH microinverters why would want anything to do with an antique string inverter that is going to fail while the battery still has life?

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 27, 2016 1:23 PM Flag

    "Here is Gregg from Sonnen who tells a completely different story about backup than Gregg from Enphase."

    Seems to me Sonnen sees the world exactly as Nahi does for ENPH.

    "Our goal is a world in which everyone is able to cover his energy needs with decentralised and clean energy source. Everyone can connect with each other to share energy where and when it's needed. This will emancipate our world from the dependence on fossil fuels and anonymous energy corporations."

    This goes completely against the idea that the future is large utility solar farms (ENPH's CTO call these dinosaurs along with string inverters).

    SEDG's believes farms are the future...which is why they keep spending their R&D money on building larger and larger central inverters.

    If you like Sonnen then you have to love ENPH.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 27, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    "You cannot solve a problem if you do not know you have one. Enphase learned that the hard way with microinverters."

    My wife was watching a recorded American Idol last night (she likes Sia) when a former winner stated something that I thought was very applicable to SEDG.

    He was asked what winning the title meant to him. His reply was he had labored for 10 years in small clubs and now was able to do concerts in front of thousands. It was a big deal to him.

    So who does this relate to SEDG?

    SEDG was also relegated to the small time (1.7% of US market share and flat) until SCTY pulled them out of the shadows.

    It's the power of marketing.

    At the time when ENPH made the decision to direct resources to their battery development they pretty much owned the module space.

    You call this taking their "eye off the ball".

    Clearly ENPH did not anticipate the effect marketing was going to have on SEDG's growth rate.

    SEDG already had pushed the fact their products were half the price of microinverters and more reliable...but still, no one bought them until SCTY came along.

    The question is can ENPH come to dominate the market once again?

    The fact SCTY is scaling back their growth rate dramatically (in half) going forward will be huge help to ENPH regaining their market share.

    This should help this year's revenues....price reductions + SCTY scale back is a nice combo package for ENPH.

    The following years ENPH's tech advances should take hold....at that point I'm not sure there is anything that SEDG could do to retain their market share.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 27, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    "Gregg should point out that the first unbiased reviews of the Enphase battery conclude: "Very low power output per battery.......expensive."

    I thought this was the first unbiased review?

    "The Enphase AC battery is part of a fully integrated energy management system, meaning that there is no need to match a hybrid inverter with it from another manufacturer as is required in many DC battery storage systems. If any warranty issues arise these can be addressed with a single supplier as opposed to having to potentially deal with multiple equipment manufacturers. This is particularly important when dealing with battery warranty claims because battery manufacturers often point the finger of blame at the device controlling the charging and discharging of the battery."

    "So in summary, we believe the Enphase AC Battery will be hugely successful in the Australian marketplace when it is released in 2016 due to the following factors:
    – Flexible, modular and easy to install
    – Superior battery performance (and therefore economics) guaranteed by a single system manufacturer
    – Low entry cost – enabling high quality energy storage to be installed starting from well below $2,000 (cost to the homeowner)
    – Unmatched monitoring and integration with the Enphase solar generation and home energy management platform"

    As for backup when the grid goes down...as you know, ENPH has a white paper on their web site explaining how to do this. But 99.99% of customers will have no interest in this since there is really no market for it...as Tesla discovered.

    "When Enphase talks about batteries not being suitable for back up they should make it clear that Enphase batteries are not suitable for backup due to the fact Enphase batteries have very low power output per battery and are expensive."

    While it may make a nice sound bite the fact is no one's battery is suitable for back up power. What if the power goes out right after the battery has been discharged?

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 26, 2016 12:10 PM Flag

    Fine....instead of 20 years I should have said 17 years (1988 to 2005).

    A few lawsuits during those years is not proof of anything.

    The proof lies in the OCN's financials....which you are too lazy to look up.

    Earnings and share price exploded after 2009...that's when they started to make money off foreclosures instead of just servicing loans.

    My point stands....OCN for a very long period of time (decades) serviced loans just fine without any more problems than any other company in their industry. To deny this is to deny history.

    The question now becomes whether they can do this again in the future?

    It just seems to me since they have done it in the past the odds are they can do it in the future.

  • Reply to

    Revised guidance

    by commander_cornelius Mar 24, 2016 3:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 25, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    "Because they look like PR stunts. Not revised projections."

    Remember ENPH did that analysts day presentation....professional looking slides, all the major executives of the company present covering all the angles on how and why their cost reduction road map will happen.

    No one cared.

    Well, I did. But it sure didn't "move the needle".

    Many either did not believe or understand the significance of it (they'll come to dominate the 7 Billion dollar inverter market if they really can produce a cell phone size inverter putting out 300 Watts with a production cost of 30 bucks).

    ENPH stock is currently just bouncing around the 100M to 150M market cap. In order for that to change we'll need to see some financial numbers indicating a change in direction (revenue up, margins up, earnings up). There are a million stocks trading in the world and while we all know about ENPH 99.9% of the investor world either does not know or does not care about it. Once those trend reversing numbers get posted stock screeners will pick up on it and investors will start snooping around looking for details. At that point you'll start to see major upside movement...just as it played out in 2013 (up 800% from bottom to top).

    There are no guarantees this will happen....it's a big if. To me it's not about the share price it's about will the company perform or not? If they do the share price, eventually, will more than take care of itself. It always does.

    But that is what makes a market.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 25, 2016 11:17 AM Flag

    "Ocwen cannot service mortgages in a lawful manner. The whole Erbey scheme was built on making money through foreclosures, NOT properly servicing loans."

    OCN has been around for nearly 30 years (1988). Their first 20 years was spent servicing loans...where they basically traded between 2 and 12.

    It was after the financial crisis (2008) that they moved into the foreclosure business.

    But to say OCN cannot service loans legally or profit from it is to deny 20 years of history.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 25, 2016 12:22 AM Flag

    The first issue with LG's battery is it's paired with someone different company's inverter.

    That bring back into play this:

    "This is particularly important when dealing with battery warranty claims because battery manufacturers often point the finger of blame at the device controlling the charging and discharging of the battery."

    The only price I could find for it was 8000 AUS...so add in 1000 or so for the inverter (SMA builds one) and 500 or so for installation and you're still pushing 10,000 to start.

    So it's not really all that cheap.

    The other issue is warranty. It's 7 years....or 6000 cycles.

    The economics of that will be difficult if it really only lasts 7 years cycling once a day (2.5000).

    I think all that density they've managed comes at a cost of length of service.

    Eliiy says there battery can last around 12,000 cycles (80%) and ENPH warranty is for 10 years and 7000 cycles (80%).

    LG is supposedly going to build the battery for GM's new volt...so it's probably a good battery. I'm going to guess ENPH looked at them seriously (LG has plenty of plant capacity left).

    The density is nice....the life cycle length not so good.

    But again, if someone does come up with a better mouse trap all the better for ENPH. They'll just switch manufacturers.

  • Reply to

    Revised guidance

    by commander_cornelius Mar 24, 2016 3:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 24, 2016 5:07 PM Flag

    Good or bad I"ve never seen a PR from ENPH revising any previous estimates.

    So I wouldn't expect to see one now...good or bad.

    What was interesting is they gave out a few hints of battery guidance.

    10-20M for AUS/NZ only 2nd half 2016.....then global up to 300M by 2020 (pretty impressive if you ask me considering that's about what ENPH's entire revenue for 2015 was).

    That didn't seem to move the needle.....I think most want to see what their inverter numbers are going to look like going forward.