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FAB Universal AO Common Stoc Message Board

joebigbuck 224 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Jan 22, 1999
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  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    If the lockup date sept 26th?

  • Reply to

    $12.7 M market cap

    by hotonstocks Aug 13, 2015 11:58 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    That would be the case if they didn't have to shell out about 10M worth of shares to Hudson...which means this is getting diluted 50% from here at the current price. So the market cap is really twice that.

    There are only 9 months left of this mass selling so in the end you guess the total number of shares. If Hudson can knock it down another 80% in that time then what would be the share count?

    The good news is what's left in that time will still pay management their full salaries as long as they don't go BK.

    What would be normal at that point is they'd do a 10 or 20 to 1 R/S to stay listed, then move on.

    If I was management and wanted to keep getting paid that's what I'd do.

    The only other option is to pay them in cash...which they will never do because management gets paid from that amount and their are no guarantees the markets will replace that with a secondary.

    Bottom line...they'll keep this up for the next 9 months regardless of the damage to the share price....which is meaningless to management's survival at this point.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    The envoy controls where the power goes....right now it's passed into the grid.

    My guess is it's a simple software update on the envoy to tell it where to send the power to.

    If they couldn't why would they say the new battery storage system is compatible with current systems...with no upgrades? They have to be able to direct the energy to the grid or the battery or that wouldn't be possible.

  • Reply to

    BWG is becoming a

    by zbgb952 Jul 7, 2015 3:06 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    They only have 14% exposure to the Mexican Peso and that is also hedged.

    The strong US dollar has clearly hurt BWG, but how much stronger is it going to get?

    Right now you can buy BWG for a 17.5% discount to NAV. That's a pretty good spread.

    So far this has been a horrible investment....but past results do not always equal future returns.

  • Reply to

    New 52 week High

    by aka_stockracker Aug 12, 2015 11:08 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Buy what? That'si the problem. I see some REIT's are paying in the 10% range (GOV and SIR) but don't know enough about balance sheets for REIT's to know what I'm getting into.

    NG seems like a nice play in the pipeline area (KMI, OKS).

    But I agree with you, refiners are the place to be which is why they have been moving north for quite a while now.
    But still, around 30 seems to me to be a fair price vs the risk here.

    I'd have to hold my nose and sell some there.

  • Reply to

    Even I'm Laughing, and I'm Long

    by jobe1098 Aug 13, 2015 9:57 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    I"m going to guess Hawthorn is manufacturing guy and not a finance guy. My guess is he had no clue how the Hudson deal would work out. He was thinking it would be, maybe, a couple million shares (no big deal).

    Tough lesson to learn.

  • joebigbuck by joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    This is what the CEO of SEDG had to say when asked about the ENPH's cost reduction plan and what will happen to them if ENPH is really able to follow through on their plans to sell micros below a central system within a year or so and are not just blowing smoke.

    "I think that as we proved from the beginning of our business that inherent advantage of the optimizer technology will always be cheaper in combination with a six string voltage inverter and compared to any micro-inverters. And therefore, I would believe that since it never happened on the opposite way, it won't change in the future."

    This is why ENPH keeps describing themselves as a disruptive technology. It's also why I compare any central system to a horse and buggy.

    " And therefore, I would believe that since it never happened on the opposite way, it won't change in the future."

    That's exactly what the best builder of the horse and buggy stated over 100 years ago when the Model T started showing up.

    It's not about how well SEDG preforms or how efficient they build their product. If ENPH performs all other competition will vanish. Micros (not just ENPH) will then own this space. Just the way it is.

  • Reply to

    Dear Paul

    by johnnie_beans Aug 13, 2015 6:47 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    ENPH did not build and has no plans to build their own battery factory. Even if the market for them does not develop, contrary to world's opinion, ENPH will only be hurt by the fact they won't generate future sales from them (which the market is giving them zero credit for anyway).
    So, worse case scenario they've spent huge amount of R&D money on this project in the past and the share price has suffered because of it. ENPH's gross margins are higher than SEDG yet SEDG has 5X the market cap.....why? The reason is they spend over twice what SEDG does on R&D. If ENPH spent the same they would have make over .21 cents last quarter and blown away estimates and the share price would soar.

    Now TSLA will have a serious problem if the battery market does not develop, but that's another story.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 12:23 AM Flag

    So the 5th generation inverter for the battery is going to retail for 60 bucks?

    That seems way too cheap. The last conference the CFO was speaking about a one or two
    year plan to get down costs below central inverters....not next month.

    " Bi-di 5th generation Enphase inverter is $50/kWh seems low but quoted?"

  • Reply to

    New 52 week High

    by aka_stockracker Aug 12, 2015 11:08 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 13, 2015 12:17 AM Flag

    For a boring MLP this is pretty volatile. In the last two years it's run from 30 to 20 to 30 to 20 and now appears on it's way to 30 again.
    I love this company and the returns, but at 30 even I will probably pull some off the table..

  • going out 90 days are unchanged?

    Yet in the time the share price has dropped from the 28 range to the 17 range?

  • Reply to

    ENPH and SEDG

    by johnnie_beans Aug 12, 2015 3:14 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 12, 2015 9:18 PM Flag

    The battery issue is another story/market altogether. No one knows how that will play out. All we know for sure is ENPH has spent a lot of their profits developing a product to compete in that market. Clearly the market is valuing that R&D expense as money wasted at this point.

    As for why all other inverters will vanish if ENPH is able to reduce costs enough to be straight up competitive?

    Because all other systems, including SEDG's, use a central inverter. Can't get around it.

    ENPH's micros are superior in every way to a central system. They are more efficient, they last longer, they are easy to install and modify the system later...blah, blah, blah.

    Heck, what's not to like? Why on earth would anyone not buy one given a choice (they only account for about 2% of the market so clearly the rest of the world is holding back for some reason).

    Well, the initial cost....they are already cheaper everything considered over the life of the system.

    If that doesn't work then the answer is marketing.

  • Reply to

    ENPH and SEDG

    by johnnie_beans Aug 12, 2015 3:14 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 12, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    I think SEDG is fine...for a year or so.

    Once micros (if they ever do) come down in price there simply will not be any reason to
    any other type of inverter or hybrid system (SEDG).

    SEDG just reported. Looks like solid numbers to me. They are preforming just fine....as I would expect.

    But no major growth jump and ENPH still has the higher margins and revenue.

    The big difference, of course, is their profits flow to the bottom line while ENPH"s are gobbled up
    by R&D.

    I sure hope Nahi knows what he's doing entering the battery/storage market, because current shareholders
    are enduring a lot of pain at the moment because of it.

  • Reply to

    Acquisition for Millennial inevitable.

    by majesticprinz Aug 12, 2015 9:26 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 12, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    They need to find another sucker company like MM....which bailed out those other losers companies over the last few years.
    Problem is finding one with management that stupid AND flush with IPO cash.

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by stockbet_com Aug 9, 2015 3:28 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 10, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    I'm sure there were plenty of smart combat ready managers of horse and buggy plants back in the day of the Model T.

    I"m also sure they prospered long after other horse and buggy makers failed.

    I'm sure their bet was the limitations of the auto (no fuel stations, broke down, expensive, noisy, ect) would eventually cause it to fail.

    Micros are that much advanced than the central inverter. ENPH's has cracked every nut so far presented to them except the cost factor.

    When that is cracked it won't make any difference how efficient or how great of managers or efficient the competition is....they will vanish.

    That does not mean ENPH will have the world to themselves, just as Ford's dominance did not last. Other players will enter, but it won't be new horse and buggy players it will be micro players.

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by stockbet_com Aug 9, 2015 3:28 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 10, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    One thing to keep in mind is Musk's entry into the battery/storage market was really initially just a desperate attempt to find a market for those batteries for that 5B factory they were building. When that was planned TSLA was expected to need all those batteries for their cars...nothing else. When it was clear their production numbers were falling behind schedule this was their plan B. They are partnering with anyone at this point that wants to build architecture that will work with their batteries.
    The question now is what will happen to that market if/when their production ramps up and they actually really need those batteries. Musk has clearly stated his cars will have priority if/when it comes to that.

    This is opposed to ENPH, who has been working this issue for years to come up with the optimal solution for amarket they've been selling into for nearly a decade.

    I'm guessing in the end ENPH has by far the better product. Doesn't mean it will compete and win (hey, hype and marketing are as or maybe more important), just means they got a shot.

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by stockbet_com Aug 9, 2015 3:28 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 10, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    " Is it not possible that in 2016, Enphase can be generating more revenue from its batteries than from microinverters? Can anyone explain why this will not be the case?"

    No one has a clue what the revenue numbers will be and the markets pretty much are pricing in zero at this point....and probably lower.

    Nahi has said the company has had 100 engineers working on the bidirectional inverter over the last 3 years so this clearly has been on his mind since then (why else would they need a bidirectional inverter?).

    So thus far the only thing this battery/storage market has done is crush ENPH"s stock price since they would have been very profitable for years now (including much further along in their cost cutting measures for their main product) without such a high R&D expense.

    But as far as a BK option here, that's nuts. They made money last quarter, are still growing, have very little debt that will paid off from cash flow this quarter, pretty much own the micro inverter market and 40% of the over all residential market. My guess is if they wanted to they could sell this company for a minimum of 500M right now. It's just there is not way the insiders would let it go at this point. They 've rolled the dice for the storage markets; you can bet they want see those numbers as much as the rest of us.

  • Reply to

    Adjustments were painful, but had to be done.

    by le_the_ceo Aug 7, 2015 10:03 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 10, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    The CEO and CFO left because they see the writing on the wall. They borrowed money for liquidity because if they did not they'd break covenants on the main debt. They took additional funds from luxor (more death spiral) because the markets would not allow for an equity raise any other way with their debt load.

    The company has value, but probably not enough to even pay 100% of the debt at this point. But regardless, luxor will continue to short even more since they know have new ammo.

    Maybe new management will pull a rapid out of hat...you knows?

  • Reply to

    The Enphase battery

    by dparr40 Aug 9, 2015 11:27 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 10, 2015 12:53 AM Flag

    None of previous generations of ENPH's microinverters were bidirectional. Nahi stated somewhere he had 100 engineers work for 3 years to develope this 5th generation inverter.

    It had to be bidirectional whereas the others had no need to be. It was designed mainly for their storage system, but I suspect at this point they will find other uses. It's why I was wondering if they will become the new stable of ENPH's lineup.

    No, I'm not saying the current generation can limit the conversion process. It's pretty clear the 5th generation can.

    All the other bidirectional inverters I"ve seen are expensive, large, inefficient and have two year warranties....none of which will apply to ENPH's.

    But if there are some out there that are similar to ENPH"s I"d like to know about them.

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by stockbet_com Aug 9, 2015 3:28 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 9, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    BTW, this is Musk opinion of the energy storage market:

    “The sheer volume of demand here is just staggering,” said Musk. “We could easily have the entire gigafactory just do stationary storage. But we need to do cars too -- we have this whole plant in Fremont making cars. Cars get the priority. But it feels like, man, the stationary storage demand is just nutty. Like worldwide, it’s just crazy.”

    This what Nahi says about the storage market:

    "And because our solution is so simple, so cost effective, and modular that can fit exactly the right place at the right time, as we've talked about, the demand is just really, really stunning."

    I'm giving the nod to Musk on pumping/marketing.

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