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joebigbuck 456 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Jan 22, 1999
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  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 11:42 PM Flag

    " Based on current webshop prices for the Sunny Island, the Sunny Boy Storage should not cost much more than #$%$1,000 (US$1,100), to be a relatively inexpensive storage system, when coupled with the Tesla battery."

    I can see how this would appeal to SEDG customers who just want to go as cheap as they can initially (and not worry about the total lifetime costs).

    But I sure don't see it as a threat to ENPH.

    I moved it over to the SEDG board since that's where it belongs.

    It comes with a 5 year warranty and as far as I can tell is just a couple hundred cheaper than SEDG"s smaller string inverters.

    Again, nothing for ENPH to be concerned about but for those looking to save a few bucks on a string system it could be a big deal.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 11:26 PM Flag

    "What’s interesting is that Kallo came away from the Fremont factory tour convinced that Tesla is already outperforming the industry on battery pricing."

    What this means is less competition in the home storage market...nice find and more good news for ENPH.

    Of course, it's bad news for SEDG since Musk has already stated he needs all those batteries for the Model 3 when he start production next year.

    The better the model 3 sells the worse it will be for Powerwall.

  • Reply to

    People come and go

    by johnnie_beans Mar 20, 2016 11:11 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 11:20 PM Flag

    I think more important is why is ENPH experiencing insider buying while SEDG is experiencing massive insider sales (the CFO recently sold every one of his shares).

  • joebigbuck by joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 11:17 PM Flag

    I copied this from the ENPH board. Thought it might be of interest here since SMA directly competes with SEDG on Powerwall inverter front while ENPH has their own complete solor system (not a competitor). I think Beans meant it for this board:

    SMA unveils new low cost high voltage Tesla storage system.

    SMA cuts storage power electronics costs by half:

    German solar inverter giant SMA has unveiled its new Sunny Boy Storage 2.5 inverter, which can be coupled with Tesla?s PowerWall. SMA says that its AC coupled unit cuts Sunny Boy storage power electronic costs by half.

    Wins innovation award:

    SMA presented the Sunny Boy Storage 2.5 at the OTTI PV Symposium, in Germany last week. The new battery unit picked up an Innovation Award at the event.

    A relatively inexpensive storage system, when coupled with the Tesla battery:

    Compared to SMA?s existing AC-coupled storage product the Sunny Island, the Sunny Boy Storage 2.5 will come in at half the cost. Because some additional parts that are necessary for the Sunny Island are not required for the 2.5, SMA estimates the cost reduction totals 56%. Based on current webshop prices for the Sunny Island, the Sunny Boy Storage should not cost much more than #$%$1,000 (US$1,100), to be a relatively inexpensive storage system, when coupled with the Tesla battery."

    BTW, this is an SMA string inverter. It will also compete directly with SEDG string inverters.

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 11:12 PM Flag

    "Enphase was never an option due to their past quality problems and high cost."

    There were plenty of people who still bought Sony Trinitrons over flat panel TV's for the same reason as late as 2006.

    But it didn't stop Trinitrons from going the way of the dinosaur and it won't stop microinverters from doing the same thing to string inverters either.

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 11:08 PM Flag

    As for warranty obligations....

    You sure can backtrack in a hurry.

    First it was ENPH was cheating.....

    "Enphase in their current financial position are downsizing warranty obligations artificially."

    Now it's just an honest mistake.....

    "ENPH CFO does not cross the line. It is very difficult to have real estimation of warranty obligations. "

    But then backtracking seems to be a comon theme for SEDG pumpers here.

    Personally I don't worry about ENPH.

    Why?

    They already went through this with the problems from with their M190's. They didn't hide it....they jacked up their warranty obligations 100% in just one year's time.

    They played straight and took the share price hit because of it.

    They also learned a serious quality control lesson.

    Current generations simply do not fail.

    That's why warranty obligations are dropping, not rising like SEDG's.

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 10:57 PM Flag

    "What happens when there is a short between Line 1 and Line 2 on the output of microinverter. "

    First off, ENPH has their own high quality cables and connectors, so it's not going to happen.

    But say it did...I would say yes...if you went up on the roof and started cutting cables (both inside or outside the microinverter) then you could shut down the entire system. Water wouldn't do it...the microinverter is sealed and the cable is sealed.

    Cutting cables can cause lots of problems.

    But if the microinverter malfunctions it cannot bring down the string. ENPH states this as clearly as SEDG does that an Optimizer malfunction can bring down the entire string...I just quoted their own web site.

    More important here....and I'm glad you brought this subject up.

    What happens if there is a short in the cable for SEDG (or any string inverter) vs an ENPH microinverter?

    Google...enphase arc

    It has a video of what will happen on your roof if there ever is a short.

    Scary stuff.....

    Which is why I read somewhere that if string inverters were invented today they'd be banned because of fire codes.

    Who wants that on their roof?

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 10:43 PM Flag

    "You are quoting an installation manual. This is a troubleshooting before the inverter is connected and operating (measuring string voltage with the voltmeter). "

    What difference does it make if it malfunctions in 10 minutes or 10 years if it still brings down the string?

    You said that wasn't possible yet even SEDG's own literature says it is.

    As for posting night and day here....so you're like Beans now (seeking your pound of flesh?).

    You're #$%$ a year ago someone here made a post or two over there knocking their products so now you feel the need to post your lies here as revenge?

    Waste of time and worst not a healthy activity if you ask me.

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 10:20 PM Flag

    "To put it in context, I am talking about quality problems on the scale of the 190/210. Every company has a few bad units that make it out the door - it's the nature of high volume manufacturing. However, high numbers of failures means there is a fundamental design issue."

    I tend to agree with you. The question I have is what did ENPH change to have them go from a high failure rate to almost a near zero value rate (now the gold standard for inverters)?

    I suspect ENPH leaned tons from their first generation inverters. I believe it's also why they have the highest test standards in the industry now....new generations are tested for an entire year under extreme conditions before being released to the market (the S290 has been tested for months now yet won't be released for at least another 6).

    I think this obsession they now have with quality is a good thing for shareholders today. I believe it is also why they are far superior to SEDG (less than 1/3 the warranty obligations) in reliability.

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 1:45 PM Flag

    Back for more, huh?

    I think this discourse is good as long as in the end if you're an investor you'll follow SEDG CFO's advice and sell all your shares or if you're a customer considering DC Optimizers you'll pass.

    Ok...so:

    "Optimizers have patented mechanism that bypasses electronic failure and make the optimizer seamless without taking string down."

    Really, except if they malfunction:

    "The only possibility for string to go down is physical disconnection of the output."

    I doubt that is the ONLY way, but this is what SEDG troubleshooting advises when an Optimizer malfuctions:

    "A malfunction of one of the power optimizers"

    !) Disconnect the wires that connect the power optimizers in the string...boy this sound easy. I have to go on the roof and disconnect all the wires in the string (up to 16? of them). Geez, I would be thinking at this point why I didn't go with microinverters so I knew exactly where the problem was before even going on the roof.

    2)Measure the output voltage of each power optimizer in order to locate the power optimizer that
    does not output the 1V safety voltage....OK, so I have to hook up and check each one individually. With Moore's law you just know it will be the last one that has malfunctioned.

    3)If a malfunctioning power optimizer is located, check its connections, polarity, module and voltage.....never just one thing that can go wrong.

    4)Do not continue before finding the problem and replacing the malfunctioning power optimizer...how come? Maybe because it takes down my entire string?

    5)If a malfunction cannot be bypassed or resolved, skip the malfunctioning power optimizer, thus connecting a shorter string....again, how come? Because it takes down my entire string...that's why.

    ENPH clearly states it has NO SINGLE POINT OF FAILURE. Now that doesn't mean if you go on the neighbors roof with a wire cutter you can't take down their system.

    "Line 1 and Line 2 of microinverters are shorted bringing the string down.

    As for Warranty Obligations....

    " IMO Enphase in their current financial position are downsizing warranty obligations artificially."

    So you think their CFO is risking jail time to make balance sheet look better by a few million?

    "A CEO or CFO signing a false Section 302 Certification potentially could be subject to an SEC enforcement action for violating Section 13(a) of the Securities Exchange Act..."

    " ......where a false Section 302 Certification was "willfully" provided, the SEC may refer the matter to the Department of Justice for possible criminal prosecution under criminal statutes that existed prior to enactment of the Act. The Act increases the criminal penalties (fines up to five million dollars and imprisonment up to 20 years) for a "willfully" false Section 302 Certification."

    But even if you think they are doing it "willfully" today then why didn't they do it back in 2013 when they bumped up their warranty obligations 100% year over year when the problems with the M190 surfaced...causing their share price to lose 80% of it's value?

    Just makes zero sense they are cheating now.

    The truth is just what's in front of you.

    SEDG had 360% the warranty obligations of ENPH for 2015 because their products are far less reliable.

    As for ENPH and labor....for the 100th time...it's in their 10K just released. I've posted it how many times now???

    ""We have a separate program that allows third-party installers to claim fixed-dollar reimbursements for labor costs they incur to replace failed microinverter units for a limited time from the date of original installation. Included in our estimated replacement cost is an analysis of the number of fixed-dollar labor reimbursements expected to be claimed by third party installers over the limited offering period."

    As for monitoring....

    The beauty of ENPH is you don't have to monitor anything if you don't want to. Since there is no single point of failure it's simply no big deal.

    If I'm lazy and just want to call the installer or ENPH once a year and ask them to check my system, why not?. So what if I lose one or two microinverters (3 to 6% of my total generation)? ENPH is going to write me a check for the energy lost anyway. What do I care?

    Compare that to SEDG's single point of failure everywhere system. Yea, I want to check that everyday since they won't reimburse me a dime when it fails.

    But even if I stay up with it every day I still have to be worried. What if SEDG chooses to just write me a check for the remainder of the warranty (which it clearly states in their warranty) and leaves me hanging on the labor????

    Which begs in an even bigger question.

    How do they account for this under warranty obligations???

    Say they know 10% of their optimizers will fail within the warranty period. Now that's a full day's job (see their own trouble shooting steps) for two people for each one of those (500 bucks?). Or...they can simply send the homeowner a check for a few bucks (30 or so...remainder of the warranty/price paid). So on the balance sheet you can put 30 dollars or 500?

    BIG DIFFERENCE is you are selling millions of those and know they are going to be a future problem.

    Bottom line: There's a reason why SEDG only was able to get 1.7% of the market with flat revenues (2012 to 2013) before SCTY came along. They sell the same products today as then. They are no more efficient or reliable today than they wer
    e back in 2013. It's the same reason their international revenues declined last quarter 10% sequentially while growing rapidly in the US....no SCTY tailwind overseas.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 2:33 AM Flag

    I really like Raghu, he's failed at start up's before...but when he hits it's usually a home run.

    Raghu has more than 20 years of experience in the clean energy and high technology industries. Prior to Enphase, he developed high-speed optical communication technology for Cerent, which was later acquired by Cisco Systems for $7 billion. has more than 20 years of experience in the clean energy and high technology industries."

  • Reply to

    Yet another battery competitor

    by johnnie_beans Mar 19, 2016 10:56 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 20, 2016 12:14 AM Flag

    "Credibility would be given to Enphase's approach if some other battery company would adopt the modular / microinverter approach using Enphase microinverters. '

    If you just watch the video and pay attention the CFO mentions how ENPH spent 4 years and 100M developing their AC battery concept. He stated how difficult it was to develop a small bidirectional microinverter.

    Now clearly the markets give ENPH less than zero credit for that money spent but it sure doesn't appear to me the CFO was having second thoughts on spending that money.....including recently buying ENPH stock.

    ENPH is taking a risk, but I'm all for it. I just agree with their overall vision. I understand the world is not going to embrace it in a day and it's not going to be a straight ride up.

    But it's going up...and the vision will come to fruition. It just makes too much sense to me not to.

    But compare that to SEDG who just basically strung a wire between their already developed string inverter and the Tesla PowerWall.

    Now maybe it will be a hot seller for them....but everyone and their cousin is jumping on board with that concept (easy to duplicate) but no no is jumping on ENPH modular AC concept (very, very difficult to duplicate).

    You may see this as a negative....I see it as a BIG positive (one concept has zero barriers to entry and one has a huge 100M and 4 years of research barrier to entry).

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 19, 2016 5:32 PM Flag

    "You are an idiot and a liar."

    I know you are, but what am I?

    Geez, name calling without any follow up humor?

    You throwing in the towel?

    BTW.....

    I'm also up a 1.50 on my SEDG short.

    I wonder if I should hold it until their CFO resigns (if the warranty obligations are really a ticking time bomb...like Optimizers on the roof.....that day can't be too far off) or just wait for the markets to realize their growth rate is rapidly slowing down?

    Listen to Chris (ENPH CFO) speech to some engineering students in AUS. I think you'll learn something.

    Just google this, you'll find it:

    ""Putting the Sun in the Cloud: How Big Data is Driving the Next Energy Revolution"

    In the video Chris compares String Inverters to dinosaurs.

    Wonder if I should start referring to SEDG as Jurassic Park.....since that's where dinosaurs are made?

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 19, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    "Will see you in q4 when this company will borrow more money or dilute your investment."

    You know, that's exactly what that Ener guy stated on his SA hit piece.

    "The ongoing losses mean the equity from the company will disappear mid-year and a capital raise is mandatory."

    He just likes to write in Wall Street jargon ("capital raise") and add in "we" whenever he makes conclusions...

    Lots of want-a-be analysts use this type of language. They think it's add credibility to their individual post.

    When you typed "will"....I was just wondering.... did you mean "we'll"?

    So....instead of "Will see you in q4....

    You meant...."We'll see you in q4...?

    Because you and Ener Guy have a lot in common.

    I wonder who "we" is though?????

    Analysts use the term to give credit on the report to their research team (or direct it away from them when their picks sour...which is often the case). Simpletons use it in postings garbage research to make their conclusions sound like they have more depth.

    Personally, I find it amusing.

    "WE expect ongoing negative cash flows and destruction of shareholder wealth."

    "WE have considerable doubt..."

    " However, WE are skeptical...."

    I asked the Ener Guy just who "WE" was (his cousin Vinny?) but he put me on ignore. Maybe you can ask him (or yourself).

    I wonder why Ener Guy just doesn't step up and take responsibility for his posts like I do?

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 19, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    The beauty of growing rapidly in India is they are like AUS/NZ in that solar storage makes economic sense there today.

    It's also easier to grow there since SCTY (SEDG's tailwind component) is US bound....ENPH still grew internationally last quarter even though US sales slumped nearly 40%.

  • Reply to

    Yet another battery competitor

    by johnnie_beans Mar 19, 2016 10:56 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 19, 2016 1:42 PM Flag

    Strange to find you pumping ENPH this morning....you do know you're pumping it, right?

    Since ENPH is battery agnostic (that means they can plug the best battery tech on the planet into their storage solution....which is fantastic when you consider how fast the battery chemistry world is going to change/improve over the next decade) any new entrants into the battery manufacturing arena are only good news for us. I hope venture capitalist (and large companies) spend billions and billions (Carl Sagan) of dollars over the next few years and come out with batteries with energy densities we can only dream about today.

    "Eos has reached an exciting point in the company’s growth. With the EDA’s support, we are now scaling up operations to produce commercial batteries in volume and to continue developing next generation improvements to our Znyth technology."

    But as for right now...at this moment....I agree with ENPH. ELiiy has the best battery on the market when you add up all the important factors (safety being job one).

    "Enphase has selected ELIIY Power, a Japanese battery manufacturer backed by Daiwa House, as the chemistry provider for Enphase AC Battery. Daiwa House is Japan's largest homebuilder. ELIIY Power is dedicated to the development and manufacturing of large-sized stationary batteries, putting safety above all else.

    "We wanted to find a battery partner that would provide us with the right technology for stationary storage, especially around performance and safety," continued Belur. "After an extensive evaluation of different energy storage companies and battery chemistries, we chose lithium iron phosphate and ELIIY Power. The batteries' long cycle life, high performance and safety features, as well as the company's impeccable quality standards, fit in well with Enphase's strong commitment to reliability, performance and continuous improvement."

    "First and foremost, ELIIY Power makes safety a top priority in the development of our products.
    All large-size lithium-ion electricity storage battery cells included in each of our electricity storage systems are manufactured at our plant in Japan.

    Olivine-type lithium iron phosphate, which offers superior safety, is used as a material for cathode. Our lithium-ion electricity storage batteries are the first of their type in the world to have passed international certification organization TÜV Rheinland’s product safety test.

    In the event of a loss of function with the battery management unit (BMU), we believe it is most essential to ensure that the battery cells remain safe, and we are therefore developing and manufacturing batteries that meet high safety standards – even if punctured with a needle (internal short-circuit), crushed, or overcharged, there is no risk of thermal runaway and they do not catch fire.

    What’s more, they offer an extended lifespan: even if charged and recharged repeatedly for 10 years (approx. 12,000 times), they will retain 80.1%* of their electricity storage capacity.
    You may therefore use our products safely over long periods of time. *Estimated value assuming 23ºC room temperature and three full charge and recharge cycles per day (depth of discharge (DOD) = 100%).

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 18, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    Just put me back on ignore Woody....thinking takes a lot of work and I don't want to stress you out.

    I'm headed out into the forest again (different continent but similar surroundings) in about two weeks for two months. I'll still check in...about as much as last time.

    Please feel free to post all your misconceptions while I'm gone. Maybe someone will believe your story and sell their shares and you'll actually get a shot to buy back in a 1.50.

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 18, 2016 3:17 PM Flag

    "Your ignorance has no limits..."

    Ok, just off the top of my head let's think about this:

    Who said a fialed Optimizers can't take down a string...that would be you.

    False...yes it can.

    Who said SEDG has the more reliable products...that would be you.

    False...they have 360% greater warranty obligations for 2015 with 10% less sales.

    Who said ENPH warranty does not cover labor...that would be you.

    False....they just pay the installer instead of you.

    Who said I will be unable to track single microinverter failure without module level monitoring...that would be you.

    False.... I can make a one phone call and get all the info I want.

    Who said SEDG covers labor on their warranty.....that would be you.

    False...It covers it if they want it to...it's their choice of the three options.

    I'd give more...but Yahoo only lets you post so much before cutting it off.

    But thanks for coming to this board and clearing up misconceptions many may have about microinverters.

    If you're and engineer and believe SEDG's propaganda what chance does the average homeowner have of discovering the truth?

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 18, 2016 3:06 PM Flag

    "Since the inverter monitors all optimizers at the module level and is connected to the monitoring app, all events are notified by different types of messaging (SMS, email etc.). No one has to go and look into the garage."

    I guess with the language barrier (English not your first language) you missed the point.

    It was stated sarcastically..... not literally.

    I get you can monitor SEDG without looking in your garage....until your antique inverter fails (of course).

    As for the 500 little box plugged into my AC outlet and hooked up to my wifi....it's not an envoy (which you can buy all day long on ebay for 200 bucks).

    It's about a 1.5 inch cube. I don't even know what it's called...don't care.

    Just know I can monitor my system 24/7 with my smart phone and they charged me 50 bucks for it and no monthly fees.

    I guess I could upgrade and spend the 200, but what for???

    I like not thinking about my system.

  • Reply to

    Single point of failure and Enphase warranty

    by taldan16 Mar 17, 2016 10:51 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Mar 18, 2016 2:19 PM Flag

    "Then why did Enphase stop reimbursing installers on the labor (which is by far more expensive than the equipment cost)?"

    That's not true....this is in their most recent 10K just released last month.

    "We have a separate program that allows third-party installers to claim fixed-dollar reimbursements for labor costs they incur to replace failed microinverter units for a limited time from the date of original installation. Included in our estimated replacement cost is an analysis of the number of fixed-dollar labor reimbursements expected to be claimed by third party installers over the limited offering period."

    Don't believe everything read on the internet. There are plenty of SEDG's pumper spreading lies out there. ENPH not covering labor is just one of them.

    If you want to just rationalize your investment fine...keeping believing that #$%$.

    I just want to make money.