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joebigbuck 280 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Jan 22, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Enphase Battery Pre-Orders

    by mrdoofytums May 25, 2016 9:29 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 31, 2016 12:30 PM Flag

    Honestly, I pay no attention to Beans cut and paste because he never has any idea what he's pasting and I really pay zero attention when you start with all your numbers because it's always garbage in garbage out.

    The other problem is half the time I have no idea what your point is in the first place.

    So....if your point this time was ENPH having 3500 extra cycles in battery life over the PowerWall in real life has nearly zero economic value then I guessed I missed it.

    It just didn't occur to me someone would start running numbers with that as their premise.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck May 31, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    "Enphase – which is using Australia as the global launch for its modular batteries storage system had planned to ship between 12,000 and 15,000 units in the next six months and the following six months. But it has now lifted that to a total of 60,000 units for the 2016/17 financial year. That equates to around 70MWh."

    I keep wondering why ENPH does not put out an official PR announcing this? Why the secrecy?

    If Taldan wants to run numbers on this vs the other top storage producers as comparison Tesla sold about 2500 Powerwall's last quarter....their first full quarter in the market.

    I guess no one figured that because of it's small size ENPH would pretty much own the small kW market....

    "It may be particularly attractive to those with smaller rooftop systems, 1.5kw to 2kW which were popular at the height of the uptake of premium feed in tariffs, or those wanting to keep a lid on storage investments."

    I know AUS is a small market but that fact is first indications are ENPH could very well become a major player what will soon be a rapidly growing multi billion dollar market.

    ENPH may currently be a company with only a 100M market cap and weak balance sheet but they've laid out a road map to become a major player in two rapidly growing multi billion dollar markets. So far everything (tech/cost advancements in microinverters, market release and rapid acceptance of their new storage line, rapid growth in their inverter sales) looks like it's going exactly as planned to me.

  • Reply to

    The talking heads have no idea whats going on

    by henslerwang May 27, 2016 11:22 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 31, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    test

  • Reply to

    Enphase Battery Pre-Orders

    by mrdoofytums May 25, 2016 9:29 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 30, 2016 5:38 PM Flag

    "I hope you were able to follow my calculations. Again, my point is that it should be economically viable, not just any arbitrage."

    So what you are saying is that with just two hour of use each day each ENPH battery will pay for itself in 10 years?

    So that would be (250 days X 1/2 X 10 years) to get the cycles used over that 10 year period?

    That's only 1350 cycles...so at the end of 10 years you still have about 80% of your ENPH battery life left.

    Meaning it will last about as long as your solar panels (25-35 years) with the last 15 or 20 years being free.

    How much solar was sold in the US when the payback time was 10 years? My guess is A LOT.

    But if prices fall 50% by 2020 you'd cut the payback time down to 5 years.

    Which is why Nahi has been telling everyone within a few years every solar array sold will come with storage.

    That is assuming, of course, that those rates remain constant (which they won't).

  • Reply to

    tried and true Enphase M215

    by r_dohr May 27, 2016 12:34 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 30, 2016 2:58 PM Flag

    If you do storage with one solarEdge inverter the price jumps up from around 1500 to 3500 for the SE7600.

    " 7600W StorEdge Inverter for Battery Tesla Systems

    SolarEdge Grid Tied Inverter SE7600A-USS

    Our Price: $3,500.00
    Watts 7,600

    Availability: Usually Ships in 2 to 3 Weeks
    Product Code: SE7600A-USS"

    Add another 500 bucks for a similar warranty and you get very close to a push.

    But then you'd still have the PowerWall and the fact it only cycles for about half of what the ENPH/Eliiy combo does (3500 vs 7000).

    The other problem with the PowerWall is for the last 5 years it's storage is cut in half...destroying any advantage it had anyway.

    Which is why ENPH is announcing sales are running 100% of expectations while you have't heard a peep out of PowerWall sales in AUS.

    "The German storage startup takes the fight to Tesla in 2016, selling 2,600 batteries in the first quarter to edge out Tesla, which confirmed earlier this month that it has sold 2,500 Powerwalls during the same period (Q1 2016)."

    I just don't see the PowerWall, a niche product, as having anywhere near the effect ENPH's storage will on have it's bottom line.

    I also think you're missing the importance of the fact SEDG is clearly dropping prices of their products. That 7600 watt inverter can be had anywhere from 2000 to 1500. It didn't use to be that wide of range. They all used to be within 100 bucks when I checked a few months back.

  • Reply to

    tried and true Enphase M215

    by r_dohr May 27, 2016 12:34 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 30, 2016 12:12 PM Flag

    When I put I my system I combined M215's with 260 watt panels....I undersized the inverters. Given the same choice to today I'd pick the same combo (only would pay a lot less) for all the reasons you listed.

    It just seemed to me that in the beginning the odds of clipping would be very small and over time since the panels degrade at about 1% a year the odds would be "forever in your favor"....aka Hunger Games.

    However....if I was dumb/cheap enough to put a single point of failure string inverter in my garage and sensitive electronics on the roof that could take down my entire string I would have bought a larger string inverter.

    Why? Well, I'll cut and paste what I did before below but the main reason is because if I ever wanted to add...because prices of panels dropped or I sold my house and the new owner wanted to add....I would have have that option without worrying about having to buy a new string inverter.

    ""With lower PV module prices, the
    incremental cost of adding additional DC
    capacity to a system has greatly decreased.
    Since a larger array feeding a fixed size
    inverter will result in greater system
    annual production, the increased annual
    energy harvest is spread across the system’s
    fixed/semi-fixed costs, which include
    inverters, AC collection system, permitting,
    interconnection fees, engineering and
    overhead. As a result, project financials have
    shifted in favor of increased Array-to-Inverter
    ratios. The scales tip even further in favor
    of oversizing when considering time-of-use
    (TOU) utility rate structures, which place the
    greatest monetary value for energy delivery
    in the afternoon during summer months.
    Through oversizing, systems produce greater
    energy when energy has the greatest value.

    Effect Of Oversizing On Inverter Life
    Designers, developers and system owners
    should view the effects of oversizing on
    inverter life and Mean-Time-Between
    Failure (MTBF) through practical lenses.
    Large array-to-inverter ratios cause the
    inverter to work harder for longer hours.
    In addition, most commercial three-phase
    inverters operate less efficiently when
    operating above the maximum power point
    voltage, resulting in greater internal-heat
    rejection. Common sense tells us that this
    can cause some of the temperature-sensitive
    components to age faster compared to a
    lightly-loaded scenario."

  • Reply to

    tried and true Enphase M215

    by r_dohr May 27, 2016 12:34 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 29, 2016 10:17 PM Flag

    Pretty clear if you're buying a string inverter it would it would be prudent to over size it...for the reasons I previously listed.

    With microinverters are those reasons don't apply....and under sizing makes perfect sense.

    Given that...they are pretty much at price parity now with the lower wattage numbers.

    What's interesting to me is the prices on the internet for various models of solarEdge products.

    A few months back almost all the retailers had similar prices. Now I'm seeing around a 20% price difference
    between some stores.

    For instance the 300 Watt optimizer is goes between 62 and 82 dollars. The 6kw inverter between 1500 and 1200.

    ENPH's microinverters shared a similar scenario before their margins tanked......prices at all stores are not updated rapidly when the manufacture starts lowering prices rapidly.

    Not sure if this trend is playing out for SEDG yet...but it sure is something to keep an eye on.

    Oh...and I noticed the price of the SEDG 7.6 kW inverter that matches up with the PowerWall goes for 3500...and not 1500 like the basic 7.6 model. How is that not a HUGE advantage for ENPH? Late next year when they stick the S300 in those batteries add up 5 of them and it's going to cost ENPH all of 150 bucks at 10 cents a watt to produce. They could market that up about 1000% and it's would still be half that of the SolarEdge inverter.

    My brain tells me I'm missing something here....but I'm not picking up on it.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck May 29, 2016 10:01 PM Flag

    Ok, I read it and the 14 Million comments that followed. Seems there are more people than just Beans hanging around message boards that claim to be battery experts.

    I thought this part was interesting....as it applies to ENPH:

    "[I]t's notable that one of the best run, most profitable companies in history (Apple) does not make their own batteries. Their supply chain is a marvel, allowing them to churn out 1/4 billion devices annually. Battery cells are a commodity, available from any number of reliable suppliers who scramble to compete for tiny profits in that industry. Why does Elon think he can do it better and cheaper? How long would it take to realize any return on the $5 billion investment he envisioned? And when Lithium-Ion technology is superseded by something else, how quickly can the GF adapt?"

    From all the battery chemistry I've read about so far Eliily has to be right at the top....no wonder ENPH choose them. Don't know if it will stay that way as the clearly battery tech is evolving rapidly. ...but it's nice to know they can switch if the world does evolve faster than they envision.

  • Reply to

    tried and true Enphase M215

    by r_dohr May 27, 2016 12:34 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 29, 2016 3:53 PM Flag

    Doesn't matter if it's a few hundred dollars cheaper....the fact is SEDG didn't gain any ground on ENPH because they were a few bucks cheaper. The fact is two years ago microinverters were twice as expensive as SEDG's string plus Optimizer solution. They gained ground on ENPH for two basic reasons. 1) they were cheaper by 50% (but even that wasn't enough to move their needle in 2012 to 2013 (flat revenues) and 2) SCTY and their 400M plus marketing budget and their 1000% growth rate that showed up in late 2013.

    That's the combo that pushed them into the black and gave them their only profitable year in their history (2015).

    Even today here is what SEDG's web site lists as the main reason to buy Optimizers over microinverters:

    "On an average system, Microinverters will cost twice as much as a comparable solution powered by SolarEdge."

    Ok...so we all know that isn't remotely true anymore and ENPH is only 1/4 of the way into the 24 month 50% cost reduction program.

    I just see zero way out for SEDG. Tigo/SMA is going to be nipping at their heals and ENPH is already gaining back their market share. In commercial I just don't see where they have any advantage over over central inverters....someone please enlighten me if they do.

    As for the Power wall....clearly Musk is fixated on TSLA. Everything else is chump change to him at this point. All his grand dreams will turn to dust if that fails and if it succeeds he'll have plenty of cash to head to Mars or whatever he wants. To that end all those batteries from Neveda are headed right into the model 3 and not into the Powerwall. In any event their battery chemistry sure look inferior when compared to Eliiy to me (half the cycles).

  • Reply to

    tried and true Enphase M215

    by r_dohr May 27, 2016 12:34 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 29, 2016 2:53 PM Flag

    "As for me, I was in the business for 8 years. Enphase kept trying to convince us that their system installed faster (and that we should reduce our prices to make them competitive). But reality showed that it saved exactly zero time in the real world of solar installation."

    Well, there's real world for you and then real world for everyone else the way I see it.

    ENPH is especially popular because it is so easy to install. Hard to not find that advantage in just about every blog. It's also why almost all "do it yourselfers" go with ENPH (snap and click).

    The move to integrating the microinverter in the panel would just make it that much simpler...for most of the planet anyway.

  • Reply to

    tried and true Enphase M215

    by r_dohr May 27, 2016 12:34 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 29, 2016 2:42 PM Flag

    For a big dummy you sure make a lot of absolute statements. There is plenty of debate on the internet on whether to oversize or undersize inverters..but do use one simple formula is just plain silly (there are way too many vaiables in play).

    This is how one site says we should undersize, and to what extend. But even these estimates are iffy..because you still have the angle of the roof and distance from the equator to take into effect (another 5%)

    1. Manufacturer’s power tolerance. (1%)
    All panels have a power tolerance. In the panels that hans is using, this is -1%/+3%. So worst case is that the specifiedpower output is actually 1% lower than spec.
    2. Temperature Loss. (10%)
    I wrote an entire blog post on solar panel temperature losses. To cut a long story short, solar panels don’t like to be hot. Most solar panels lose about 10% of their rated power on a 25°C day, more if it is hotter. Let’s assume 10% for this estimate.
    3. Dirt (5%)
    When your solar panels are put on your roof, airborne particulates like dust will settle on the panels’ glass. These particulates block the amount of sunlight reaching the solar cells behind the glass reducing your power. The reduction in power from particulate build up typically lies in the 5%-15% range. Hans’ panels have just been installed so we’ll assume only a 5% loss.
    4. Wiring Losses (voltage drops) (2%)
    All the solar panels on your roof are interconnected with wires, then a long pair of DC wires connects the final solar panel to your inverter. All these wires have a small electrical resistance, which means the electricity flowing through them will suffer a voltage drop. This will reduce your power proportionally, typically by around 2%.
    5. Inverter Efficiency (4%)
    Everything goes through your inverter so the inverter efficiency will directly affect your system output. Hans is using an SMA Sunny Boy inverter. If he has a modern, transformer less model, he can expect an inverter efficiency of about 96%, giving a 4% loss."

    Then there is this guy that tells you oversizing is the only way to go.

    "With lower PV module prices, the
    incremental cost of adding additional DC
    capacity to a system has greatly decreased.
    Since a larger array feeding a fixed size
    inverter will result in greater system
    annual production, the increased annual
    energy harvest is spread across the system’s
    fixed/semi-fixed costs, which include
    inverters, AC collection system, permitting,
    interconnection fees, engineering and
    overhead. As a result, project financials have
    shifted in favor of increased Array-to-Inverter
    ratios. The scales tip even further in favor
    of oversizing when considering time-of-use
    (TOU) utility rate structures, which place the
    greatest monetary value for energy delivery
    in the afternoon during summer months.
    Through oversizing, systems produce greater
    energy when energy has the greatest value.

    Effect Of Oversizing On Inverter Life
    Designers, developers and system owners
    should view the effects of oversizing on
    inverter life and Mean-Time-Between
    Failure (MTBF) through practical lenses.
    Large array-to-inverter ratios cause the
    inverter to work harder for longer hours.
    In addition, most commercial three-phase
    inverters operate less efficiently when
    operating above the maximum power point
    voltage, resulting in greater internal-heat
    rejection. Common sense tells us that this
    can cause some of the temperature-sensitive
    components to age faster compared to a
    lightly-loaded scenario."

    For me the decision was simple. If I decided to go with the cheaper inferior system (string/Optimizer) I would have oversized my system for the above reasons. Another reason to oversize string is if you even ever want to add panels and you undersize in the first place you're stuck with buying a new inverter.

    Since I went with microinverters I decided to undersize as if I decided to add later it wouldn't matter and undersizing microinverters doesn't stress them like three phase inverters.

  • Reply to

    Movement to buying over leasing

    by magoothemagnificent1 May 28, 2016 5:32 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 28, 2016 10:14 PM Flag

    If you think about it VSLR jumped up over 50% just because some guy who is rated in the bottom 1% of all analysts upgraded it.

    Now compare that news to ENPH, who just last week announced through an interview that initial battery sales in AUS were running 100% above what were already high expectations.

    That moved the share a few pennies higher, if that.

    But which news was more important?

    I wonder what the share price would have done if ENPH had released an official PR touting their sales instead of though some obscure interview down under?

    BTW, I never did get around to shorting VSLR Friday as I got distracted. If it trades around 4 when I get up Monday I am going to have to short it. There is no way that nut's upgrade is going to have traction.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck May 28, 2016 11:23 AM Flag

    "SEDG and ENPH technology and company cost curves or not in sync which is highly unfavorable for ENPH at this moment, as the critics point out."

    String inverters have been out since, well seems like forever, and has many multi Billion dollar companies fine tuning it over the years. It is a very mature tech.

    The Optimizers SEDG sells today is their 3rd generation and were released in 2012. If a major upgrade, or even minor one, were easy surely they would have done it by now (next generation expected this year sometime)?

    Microinverters clearly are not mature, not even close if the cost/part/weight reduction curve Nahi laid out a few years back turns into reality.

    I agree with you in the past the cost curves of both companies were not in sync, but microinverter tech is about to blow string inverter tech out of the water going forward as it matures.

    ENPH at his point appears to be right on track with their new generations and cost curves. Compare that to SEDG who delayed, once again, their new string inverter and Optimizer. Their claimed advances in production efficiency related to their new Mexico factory also were bogus...shifted production back to Asia.

    As for GaN tech and ENPH...it's not like ENPH ignored the tech it just appears they found a better alternative. They claim they spent four years and 100M developing their own bidrectional inverter and on the surface so far it appears to be performing flawlessly. How do you argue with that?

    Remember in that little box challenge the inverters only had to last a few hours in an A/C room....not 25 plus years in harsh conditions.

  • Reply to

    SolarEdge testing process vs ENPH

    by joebigbuck May 27, 2016 12:29 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 27, 2016 9:38 PM Flag

    Here is what SEDG stated about their new HD inverters in a Sept 2016 PR:

    "SolarEdge's first inverters powered by HD-Wave technology will be available starting December 2015. SolarEdge will unveil the first inverter powered by its HD-Wave technology at Solar Power International in Anaheim, CA, September 14-17."

    So...that would give them about 3 months of testing....which is what they stated here:

    ""Testing is the most important thing: Many testing procedures run all day to put single components, complete power optimizers, or inverters through their paces and make suggestions for improvements. It takes up to three months to test new components until they are finally approved for further use in R&D and production."

    But as we know their testing hit a snag....and will continue to until it's released and their warranty costs skyrocket.

    So this is what their CEO said at the C.C. in Nov of 2015 (after fiscal Q1 2016) referring to the HD inverter.

    "For December quarter, there won't be any impact from the new inverter. We'll ship very small quantities by the end of the quarter. So practically everything that we'll ship will be the current generation."

    Ok...so not Dec like they stated just a month before. OK, when then?

    "We believe that to fully ramp it up will take three quarters. So I would expect that by the end of Q3 (March 2016), 80%, 90% of everything we'll ship will be already the new HD technology inverter. We're very mature with the production stages and I believe that the ramp-up will be quite smooth. The only thing that can in a way reduce these percentages, if we'll see demand which is dramatically above what we are expecting, but if we estimate the demand properly, I think that we'll be able to almost fully ramp up to 80%, 90% – we'll be able to ramp up to 80% or 90% in three quarters. As for cost, you understand that we won't share this in great details but I can tell you that the potential is overcoming in a big way the 7.5% to 10% ASP reduction that we believe we'll have to offer during 2016."

    Well, fast forward to May (two weeks ago) and now here is the new update:

    "So we are rolling it out slower than expected mainly because of the fact that we need to adopt the production line to it and due to the high demand it takes us longer than expected. I think that in Q3 calendar (Oct 2016) the majority will still be the current values are selling which is a very attractive great inverter and we keep reducing its price. And we will get to the majority probably a couple quarters later (April quarter 2017?)."

    So it was announced in Sept of 2015, expected to be released in Dec of 2015...and now it's maybe it will be released in April of 2017?

    When SEDG announced this new "revolutionary tech" many of us felt it was a bogus announcement. The tech is really from the 1070's and was abandoned by everyone shortly thereafter because it was deemed unreliable and expensive. My guess is it will never be released....but if it is there warranty costs will skyrocket.

    The bottom line is everything SEDG puts out has to be taken with a grain of salt. Sure, they have been profitable for one year in their history (because of SCTY) but that hardly makes them anything special.

  • Reply to

    tried and true Enphase M215

    by r_dohr May 27, 2016 12:34 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 27, 2016 8:50 PM Flag

    I put M215's on my roof paired with 260 watt panels. They work great without clipping.

    Since panel wattage has not been increasing very fast I wonder if ENPH will eventually offer around an S250?

    Seems logical, but then maybe not if you can make an S300 for 30 bucks (10 cents a watt)...... is saving 5 dollars all that big of a deal...and have to open another production line to do it?

    But selling for under 90 dollars today that M215 is really at price parity with Optimizers....making it a no brainer if that was the choice for me.

    As for the LG panels...I was thinking they were waiting for the S290 to be released. Guess not.

    The cheapest I could find that panel without the S280 attached was about 150 cheaper (390 bucks). The cheapest I could find a S280 on the internet was a one time sale of 130....most were around 160.

    So....is it worth 20 bucks to have the S280 already integrated into the panel (one SKU, ease of installation and ordering)?

    I'm going to guess yes.

    I also see that LG can be paired with the DC optimizer for 80 dollars less (465). If you figure about 1200 bucks for a string inverter it's a push at 15 panels (4.7 kW system)....after that the Optimizers are cheaper by 80 bucks per panel.

    With all the advantages those S280's offer over the string set up I'm going to guess most will pay the difference....until they get above 30 panels or so.

    Once the S290 is paired (about 20 bucks cheaper) the panel parity number should rise from 15 up to about 20 panels (6.3 kW system). That should be close to enough for most residential systems.

    I'm also thinking that if those panels start selling like hotcakes it won't be long before LG makes a play for ENPH.

  • Reply to

    SolarEdge testing process vs ENPH

    by joebigbuck May 27, 2016 12:29 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 27, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    "1. When they talk about three months testing they talk only about new components. Optimizers and inverters are NOT components."

    Look, I don't make this stuff up. Take it up with SEDG. They are the ones the state...."COMPLETE power OPTIMIZERS, or INVERTERS through their paces..."

    I suspect that's why they fail at 4X the rate of microinverters (warranty obligations 2015 for ENPH and SEDG).

    ENPH leaned an expensive lesson from their M190 experience. Since then their microinverters simply do not fail....I still can't find one report of an M250 failure anywhere on the internet yet that on individual stated he had 3 Optimizers fail (current generation). I suspect this is the reason:

    "" Enphase products undergo 1 million power-on hours of accelerated, long-term reliability testing prior to release. "

    Aren't you also the guy that stated a failed Optimizer couldn't take down an entire string? And if they were as equally as reliable why does only ENPH guarantee 100% power production all the time?

    And while we're at it...how come SEDG and their rock solid balance sheet only spends half of what ENPH does on R&D? ENPH spent over 50% of their market cap on R&D last year while SEDG spends like what, 1/100 of their's...you do the math.

    You suppose that has something to do with the fact microinverters are more reliable than Optimizers....they can't be less reliable, I mean just don't break?

  • Reply to

    VLSR big move today with upgrade.....

    by joebigbuck May 27, 2016 3:20 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 27, 2016 3:28 PM Flag

    The analysts wrote, “With the tax equity environment for VSLR improving, we believe the company remains in a strong position to achieve its 2016 installation targets. Additionally, after a slow seasonal start, fundamentals in the US resi market are improving,” analyst Vishal Shah wrote in a note.Shah said Vivint has 514MW of operating assets in the current portfolio, which he believes are worth about $5/share (assuming 8 percent discount rate). This implies that at current levels, shares are assuming the devco is worth ($2.50)/share.Related Link: Gordon Johnson On Trina Solar: Time To Press The Shorts”Even if we do not include renewals, VSLR’s operating assets are worth ~$3.50/share which would mean ~($0.90) value for devco,” Shah noted.The analyst highlighted that the most recent tax equity round enables the company sufficient tax equity funds through Aug ’16 time frame. Shah said company needs $2.60–2.80/W of project financing, of which $1.50–1.70/W is in the form of tax equity financing. The analyst noted that additional financing announcements are likely as the company had said it was working on $200 million worth of tax equity transactions. “We believe the amount of capital needed to achieve 2016 objectives is easily achievable and more importantly, the shares are clearly not discounting this amount of capital raise at current valuation levels”

    Other analysts have also issued reports about the company. Credit Suisse reissued a “hold” rating on shares of Vivint Solar in a report on Sunday, March 20th. Bank of America reissued a “sell” rating and issued a $2.00 price objective on shares of Vivint Solar in a report on Monday, May 2nd."

    I'm going to guess there is a 90% chance my short is profitable. Shah has bounced around between firms for the last few years....I can't believe Deutsche Bank didn't can this guy after the SUNE BK.

    Of course, being complete wrong on SUNE didn't slow down that "WE" guy over on SA for more than a week before he bashed ENPH again

  • VSLR is up about 50% today...the sole reason this guy upgraded it.

    Who in their right mind would even consider an investment that this guy recommends. What, you like to lose money?

    I'm going to short that stock near the end of the trading day....hopefully right before daytraders exit.

    This is from a couple months back. I'm going to guess his ranking has dropped from the bottom 99.8% of all analysts to 99.9% of all analysts after the SUNE BK.

    "Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah was out pounding the table on Sunedison Inc (NYSE:SUNE) Friday, reiterating a Buy rating and a $6.50 price target, which implies an upside of 170% from current levels.

    Shah wrote, “The Appaloosa case was one of the biggest overhangs on SUNE shares and a favorable decision clears the way for SUNE to close the VSLR transaction as well as should enable the company to focus on execution. In terms of timing, we expect the VSLR deal to be closed by March 18 and post the close, we really see one of two scenarios playing out – either SUNE finds a buyer for VSLR operating assets or TERP will be required to buy these assets. We believe there is a high probability that SUNE is able to find a buyer for these assets which would be a significant positive for both TERP and SUNE, in our view.”

    According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Vishal Shah has a yearly average return of -23.2% and a 23% success rate. Shah has a -68.7% average return when recommending SUNE, and is ranked #3658 out of 3675 analysts."

    This is also the guy who says ENPH can't compete and has something like a 2 dollar price tag on them.

    It just bothers me to no end that investors continue to listen to analysts.....especially the ones that have proven themselves time and time again to be idiots. In my decades of investing I have yet to find a single analyst that I feel is worth following around. Someone knows one please share.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck May 27, 2016 3:03 PM Flag

    I think there is zero chance SCTY will buy SEDG but think there is a legit chance they'll buy ENPH (200M or 300M would be chump change to them) for their tech.

    Remember ENPH dominated SolarBridge in sales (like 10 to 1) ...and was suing them for stealing their tech when the buyout occurred.

    "SunPower Buys SolarBridge To Leverage Its Technology

    SunPower announced Monday that it has acquired microinverter manufacturer SolarBridge Technologies.

    San Jose, Calif.-based SunPower (SPWR) builds utility-scale solar projects and is the No. 2 manufacturer of solar panels in the U.S., behind First Solar (FSLR). SunPower makes solar photovoltaic panels that generate direct current (DC), so it will use SolarBridge’s inverter technology to convert DC into alternating current (AC) power.

    SolarBridge, based in Austin, Texas, develops microinverters that can be built into individual solar panels. The microinverters can be installed directly into solar panels, eliminating the need to mount or assemble additional components on residential roofs or sides of homes, SunPower officials said in a statement.

    Terms of the acquisition were not disclosed.

    SunPower stock was flat near 30 in midday trading on the stock market today.

    In March, SolarBridge said that it had closed a $42 million round of funding led by Constellation Technology Ventures, part of energy provider Exelon (EXC). SolarBridge said at the time that it would use the funding to expand sales and marketing, and to continue the company’s focus on research and development as it rapidly scales its customer base across North America and Australia.

    Sales of photovoltaic microinverters, which are more efficient than conventional inverters, are expected to jump amid growing demand in foreign markets, market research firm IHS reported.

    Microinverter shipments worldwide are expected to increase to 2.1 gigawatts in 2017 from approximately 500 megawatts in 2013, IHS reported."

  • Reply to

    SolarEdge testing process vs ENPH

    by joebigbuck May 27, 2016 12:29 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck May 27, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    "As usual, you read something, you do not understand and then build a theory around it. How about comparing apples to apples: the statement that you quoted is about NEW COMPONENTS selection, not the product testing."

    Ok, fine. I read it again.

    "Testing is the most important thing: Many testing procedures run all day to put single components, COMPLETE power OPTIMIZERS, or INVERTERS through their paces and make suggestions for improvements."

    I guess complete Optimizers and Inverters really just mean new components in them to you.

    Complete to me means the entire Optimizer or Inverter.

    You got something else?

    ENPH takes a year and states this about their testing:

    "" Enphase products undergo 1 million power-on hours of accelerated, long-term reliability testing prior to release. "

    As for warranty obligations...you're basing that 2 year labor only warranty on hearsay from a blog. I know for my system I have a 25 labor warranty through my installer.

    Now even if ENPH is really two years....it kind of makes a major statement that the installer is willing put up his own money to cover labor for the other 23 years.

    ENPH also give a 100% energy guarantee...if the systems fails they'll repay you for lost production.

    SEDG clearly has reliability issues or their warranty costs would not continue to be 4x or more ENPH.

    BTW... my guess is that blogger was mistaken on the two year number. Any installers out there want to chime in?