I'm OK with that strategy, I use a similar one.....
When a share price drops or rises 5% or more, with the sole reason being an analysts upgrade or downgrade, I play the other side. Normally within a week the share price is right back where it started.
That said, I have no problem buying around 20. My thinking is the distribution this quarter will be around 1 dollar. The last time the distribution moved from .45 to .97 was a year ago and the share price moved from the 20 range to the north of 25 range.
I'm thinking history is going to repeat itself.
I don't pay attention to analysts and I thought everyone else learned that lesson back during the tech bubble They're paid to make money for the firm they work for, not you.
My thinking is the drop in the price of oil today is only going to widen the crack spread as I'm not seeing gas drop in my area.
So my thinking is CVRR should be headed north today, not south.
I bought a few more shares.
NTI, over the last 4 quarters, has returned 2.90 cents to share holders.
That's north of 14%.
Year ago they did .41 cents and the low share price until the next distribution was north of 23.
In the end none of this will matter because Western is going to buy NTI. They paid a .30 cent dividend with
a share price nearly twice of NTI.
Which stock would you rather hold if you're looking for dividends/distributions?
NTI got hit to the tune of 73M for holding that stopping the hedges at the worse of all possible times but barring that, their other numbers all indicate this will pay north of 3 dollars in distributions going forward (and increase from there).
While those hedges hurt NTI big time last quarter they would have hurt them to large extend this quarter. Oil has moved up 20% from the Dec lows meaning NTI is now benefiting from the move.
Last quarter NTI would have distributed over 1 dollar per share is not for the write down (and yea, it was real cash not just a balance sheet adjustment) and I expect they will do that or better this quarter.
There is simply no way WSN is not going to buy NTI, and probably sooner rather than later. It's turning into a cash cow and the market is WAY undervaluing it for it's potential. WSN can float a bond at less than 4% interest in this environment and pick up NTI's cash spin off of over 12%....even at 30 dollars a share a buyout of the 60% they don't own already is inevitable.
Oil prices rose initially 30% causing an immediate spike in gas prices. But oil prices have fallen just as rapidly as they rose yet gas prices are still hovering near their highs.
Just the way it is.
IMO buying refiners is a no brainer at that moment.
Who else is making all the money.....it's not the oil drillers, suppliers or gas stations.
We'll find out in about 6 weeks as they all start reporting. If I'm right the first one that reports will put the investor world on notice and as usual they'll be late to the party.
Whatever you guys feel the estimates are clearly the analysts aren't seeing it the same way.
Revenue estimates for growth between 2015 and 2016 amount to all of 1 million (less than 5% for the year).
" Shortly thereafter, the Bakken exploded and NTI got access to cheap oil feedstock and started to make a fortune."
That's what the market has not digested yet. They saw what i did, a very high dividend believing it was completely unsustainable and then just moving on without digging.
I just happened to be in the mood to dig, and I liked what I saw.
NTI of five years ago is not the company of today and my belief is they can continue to post 3 dollars a share or more in dividends going forward.
Not so sure about this quarter....I'd be shocked at .75 cents because of the nearly 10% shutdown for parts replacement and buying up that 1.2M barrels at over 70 (maybe 80) and tighter crack spread....I'm thinking closer to half that number.
If it's .75 cents just sell everything and buy as much NTI as possible, because as each quarter goes by and they continue to post dividends like that the market will slowly become a believer.
Nice explanation...but I was just thinking.....on that last C.C. I remember someone stating something about how Oct was a better month for them than any in Q3 (or something to that effect...my internet is slow as I'm traveling out of the country at the moment or I'd double check it).
If they really ran through that entire 1.2m in early Oct, and if my memory isn't fading, maybe they will beat my estimate (.40).
While this quarter will remain a wild card until they report, the good news is everyone will have an idea of how NTI performs in a volatile commodity market going forward.
Kind of shocked the share price did not respond much to those numbers. The big money must be waiting for earnings and the final audit to be complete before buying in.
I bought a few shares today, looking to add more if it drops.
and it reads like a hundred other discrimination suits I"ve read.
They all have a mean boss, they all go to counseling and they all want to be compensated.
Also, the home deport story makes zero sense. So the home depot rep messed up, admitted it, but then still asked for 4M to cover his rear, and the poor depressed lady said no while the mean CEO stepped in and gave it to him? What the heck?
The reason she doesn't want to quit is she makes lots of money and doesn't want to give it up. She knows she's going to be fired after the audit committee stops supporting her..if they ever did....maybe they just wanted to avoid a discrimination lawsuit so they were placating her.
In any event, if what she states is true the audit committee is fully aware of everything Yan is doing business wise and doesn't seem to have any problem with it....or I'm sure the reversal of all his decisions would have been mentioned.
I've never head or read where NTI is shopping for another refinery. When they speak of "acquisitions" they are referring to acquiring additional gas stations and minimarts/bakery stores.
WNR will buy this soon enough, which will be a shame IMO. This is managed efficiently, they own everything downstream after the oil extraction (pipeline to refinery to gas station) and they have a great location (MN) which allows access to discounted oil (ND).
Luxor doesn't care about the short term direction of the stock or what they sell it for. We already know last week they dumped almost 50% of the total volume in one day. No stock can handle that type of selling without taking a hit. It took about 5X normal volume to knock out the 52 week low yesterday and 2 hours into the trading day today we're already at the normal volume levels.
With zero news this is not a normal trading pattern. The last news from the company just a couple weeks back was very positive, I seriously doubt there's been any bomb shells since then.
My firm guess is this is Luxor dumping again. The only question is when they''ll be done.
At this value level the volume should stay well over 1M shares a day. Last I checked they had around 9M shares so this may last a week or so....or end in the next few minutes.
You need to look a little harder then just under Yahoo.
Luxor dumped about 450K shares and filed a form 4 on April 2nd.
No idea if they were the ones that dumped shares the last couple days but we'll find out soon
enough as if memory serves me right they have 3 days to file a form 4.
By the looks of today's volume they done selling, at least for now.
This just needs to base a bit or wait for news. It will recover soon enough.
The big news in the C.C. to me was they broke the 5 dollar barrier for a 60 watt LED bulb....selling it at home depot retail for 4.88.
That will be game changer for this company.
Q1 will be flat, but Q2 will start to show growth north of 20% and it will stay that way for a long time.
You don't understand the purpose of the puts.
Luxor just took a 25% interest in a "distressed" company.
They are looking for protection on the downside.
It's normal for funds to hedge their bet with large positions in puts.
If RCAP tanks down to 7 or 8 or bad news a 10% position in out of the money puts
can make up most of the loss for them.
If RCAP moves rapidly up (or just stays in it's range) puts would just be viewed as an insurance policy and
would expire worthless (which is probably what will happen).
Moody's kind of put a damper on the move up today related to RCAP's release last week. Should be a short lived damper, those numbers are impressive and will move the stock higher into earnings (and take RCAP off the Moody's radar).
For those that think SSYS tanked from 130 down to 70 because of their business prospects dried up I suggest you look at the last earnings to see why the stock tanked.
Growth and earnings came in as expected (for the most part), but once they mentioned they were going to be spending 100M in CAPEX all the investors ran for the hills.
SSYS is growing 25% organically and even faster through acquisitions. It's not a software company, they need to make things.
CAPEX jumped from around 20M 2012 to 30M 2013 to 50M last year...to an expected 100M this year.
It's increasing because the growth for this year alone is expected to be greater than the entire revenue in 2012.
The bottom line is SSYS dropped about 3B in market cap because investors were scared of 100M in CAPEX.
I know, it makes no sense. But that's the way the markets work.
As a side note, I have no idea if 70 will be the bottom or it goes straight back to 100. All I can say is if a stock drops like a rock very little resistance is formed so the way up can happen just as fast as the way down.....see NFLX as an example.
Geez, twenty minutes after the halt they post their advertisement on Yahoo.
I doubt they even know the claim is chump change (25K).
They just look at the hit on the stock price and throw the PR against the wall and see if it sticks.
They have no more clue the inside details as to why she wants 25K any more than anyone else here.
I expect the company to come with a full story early tomorrow with the details.
I think .49 cents was great considering all the headwinds they faced for the quarter.
I'm guessing the run rate was around 90K with close to a two week shut down. Then factor in the reduced crack spreads, dropping the hedges at the worst possible time and then being stuck with 1.2M barrels at the
high and I'd say .49 cents was darn near spectacular.
Overall, I see this quarter about as bad as you can get on every front and nearly 9% works for me.
But I'm with you, if it tanks on Monday I'll be buying my final position (I was holding back thinking the number could have been near zero with all the issues they faced and the fact the share price tanked a couple bucks after the quarter ended and the fact it's not recovered like the other refiners...most are 30% off their lows vs 10% for NTI).
You have to be patient. Most don't want to buy since Q4 earnings are going to be poor.
That's why when OCN tanks ASPS tanks. When OCN is up ASPS is flat.
IT's painful to watch, but it's also temporary and just setting up for a huge move up if....
earnings estimates going forward are solid.
My thinking is only good things have happened since they gave that presentation outling earnings between 4 and 7 buck next year.
If they were truthful then the forward guidance should remain intact.
And that's why investors are looking for.
Cooperman is an interesting character with a big ego. He lectured management about a "colossal misallocation of funds" when they bought back shares at 100 yet failed to note his own stupidity by buying 250,000 between 39 and 47.
So now the question becomes is he smart buy selling those shares around 15?
My thinking is he wasn't so smart the first time and suspect history will show a similar result for his latest actions.