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Shanda Games Limited (GAME) Message Board

joebigbuck 224 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Jan 22, 1999
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  • If you want to compare TSLA's storage system to ENPH's start with battery itself.

    TSLA is 92% efficient and will last around 5000 cycles.

    ENPH is 96% efficient and will last over 11,000.

    As for cost....I have no clue but I do know employees cost money.

    TSLA's:

    Tesla is building a massive battery plant called the Gigafactory in the desert east of Reno, and is planning to hire 6,500 workers over the next eight years.

    ENPH:

    "At Kawasaki Plant 2, completed in June 2012, the manufacturing process is operated in a fully automated manner, from blending of cathode and anode materials to inspection of completed battery cells and wrapping of external film. The entire process is centrally managed and can be operated by a minimal number of workers.

    Outfitted with the latest manufacturing equipment, Plant 2 ensures a production capacity of 1 million battery cells per year, which, combined with Plant 1, enables us to produce 1.2 million battery cells per year."

    6500 vs minimal?

    Why the difference?

    "In the past, the fact that lithium iron phosphate had a lower energy density than other cathode materials was an issue. Using a unique method that we have developed, ELIIY Power has succeeded in increasing the energy density by making a thick coating of lithium iron phosphate possible.

    We have developed a unique stacking method for manufacturing equipment that folds the cathode and anode and separator together in a zigzag manner (patent applied for and open for public review).
    Using this stacking method we have realized high-speed manufacturing and large-size that would be impossible with the conventional winding method."

    There is also this from a few months back:

    Paul Nahi, Enphase’s CEO, says that ELIIY is "extremely cost-competitive.” And Belur noted that “with all due respect”, he is very surprised by the high prices being quoted for batteries from companies like Tesla or SolarCity."

    Bottom line: ENPH will be the price leader and superior product from day 1

  • Reply to

    Tesla hires battery brains

    by johnnie_beans Aug 28, 2015 12:30 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck 21 hours ago Flag

    "Who are all of the companies selling solar batteries right now?"

    At the moment home storage batteries are lead acid. It was never considered a big market until recently.

    ENPH has been working on it for over a year now but I guess Musk is the one that made it a big deal....billion dollar market potential.

    For all that talk of how superior the power wall will be to ENPH's tiny offering it should be noted that ENPH does not make batteries (or anything else for that matter...they outsource) and could have just as easily have chosen Panasonic (who is selling to TSLA) batteries (all batteries are DC).

    The reason they did not is because they found what they think is a superior product and made a deal with that company ( ELIIY Power).

    As a side note (and a pretty big one) ENPH is again spending large sums of money on expansion plans for Japan. For those that don't know, to make inroads into any Japanese market you have to partner with a Japanese company. Well, ELIIY Power is backed by Daiwa House...who just happens to be the largest home builder in Japan.

    Connect the dots on that one.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck 21 hours ago Flag

    "With all this bullish news for the solar industry and ENPH, can anyone provide a logical explanation for the continued price drop?"

    They just lost a customer that accounted for 30% of their revenue (Viviant).

    All the other issues listed sure didn't stop ENPH from growing revenues north of 50% in the past and won't stop them from growing in the future.

    But 30% is a big number.....how many small companies could survive that hit?

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck 21 hours ago Flag

    "This is a dead end technology that will never be price competitive for all the reasons that you state."

    Good reason to short the stock if that's your opinion. No problem with that.

    I'd just ask myself how a small start up company with zero marketing muscle going up against multi-billion dollar companies with huge marketing budgets was able to gain 40% of the US residential market for inverters over the course of a few years before I ran with that thought however.

    You think that was because of ENPH's huge advertising budget (zero)?

    You think that was because of ENPH's brilliant advertising campaign (never had one)?

    You think that was because they partnered with the largest installer in the US (SCTY....never sold a single micro inverter in their history)?

    They're just lucky?

    Or maybe because they really do have a superior product?

    BTW...I just discovered TSLA's battery is 92% efficient round trip. So it was TSLA"s battery Nahi was referring to when he mentioned 5000 cycles and 92% efficient for the competition.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck 22 hours ago Flag

    "Where did you read about SEDG's CEO commenting on ENPH's CEO's comment?"

    It's on the last C.C. from SEDG.

    "I think that as we proved from the beginning of our business that inherent advantage of the optimizer technology will always be cheaper in combination with a six string voltage inverter and compared to any micro-inverters. And therefore, I would believe that since it never happened on the opposite way, it won't change in the future."

  • Reply to

    QTTB

    by eusdond Aug 28, 2015 6:20 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck 22 hours ago Flag

    "Serial equity raisers are those that will raise capital to backstop their dividends or provide management with sweeter packages, which is far from NRZs stated objective, which is to raise shareholder value."

    I agree 100% or I wouldn't have taken a position here. But....no one comes out and states, "hey, we're doing this to enrich ourselves and could care less about shareholders."

    Regardless of how current shareholders interpreted the recent equity raise the markets clearly interpreted it as negative.....a share price north of 17 and moving higher turned back below 16 and started working it's way lower on the news.

    The only way to prove a market wrong is by performance. The last earnings were a good start, as the HLSS purchase immediately was accretive to earnings.

    As for being in the right place at the right time (lucky)...Ben Hogan used to say the harder he worked the luckier he seemed to be (golf). Seems you're placing NRZ in that boat.

    As for my opinion of the share price....for what it's worth.

    NRZ over the last couple years has traded around a 10% yield pretty consistently. Now maybe management will get that down to the goal of around 8%, but maybe not.

    But my guess is they make a bit north of 2 dollars a share for 2016 and pay 95% of that out in dividends (on the low side).

    Giving me every reason to reinvest whatever dividends NRZ pays out back into the company anywhere near the current prices.

  • Reply to

    Exercises

    by exski99 Aug 28, 2015 11:15 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 28, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    " said Ryan Ashton, co-founder and Chief Executive Officer. “We believe our recent stock performance represents a technical inefficiency related to unit separation, not the underlying fundamentals of the Company’s performance."

    This is the idiot that signed the deal. He still hasn't figured out what hit him.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 28, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    " Sometimes I wonder how this "Professional Traders" get their jobs.."

    Professional traders and analysts get and keep their jobs by generating commissions.

    Look at the highs and lows of not just ENPH, but other small cap stocks. To see a range of 300% from high to low is not uncommon.

    Then look at their earnings and revenues over the course of a year.

    Most of the times you'll see some pretty consistent numbers.

    If ENPH never left the 4 range and stayed here for the last 2 years volume would probably be around 100K shares a day, maybe less.

    But by running it up to 18 then down to 4 the average volume is now nearly 10X that.

    Now multiply that by the entire market.

    If you got paid by commission and had the ability to to create volatility would you?

    Over all it's probably close to a trillion dollar industry.

  • Reply to

    QTTB

    by eusdond Aug 28, 2015 6:20 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 28, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    Nice trade. I wasn't smart enough to sell before the tank, but I did add 10% to my position below 14 (no where near the bottom but good enough for me).

    I just have no intention of selling any shares for a long time. If we get paid 12% to hold it why sell?

    The only time I would consider selling is if they the CEO became a serial equity raiser. He swore that would not happen during the last conference call but you never know. Although I really like the HLSS purchase and viewed the money raised for that as a positive....or I wouldn't be here.

    But deals like that don't come around every day. I just think NRZ was in the right place and the right time (HLSS had to sell).

  • Reply to

    Whiting restarts

    by jrad52 Aug 26, 2015 8:50 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 28, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    Yup, gas prices will jump immediately then gradually decline.

    Just like what is happening now with the price of oil.

    Gas prices will jump immediately, then gradually decline if this rally is another head fake.

    Anyway you look at it NTI is about to post it's third consecutive distribution of over 1 dollar.

    Last time it did that it hit 33.

  • Reply to

    Take NRZ dividend this year, $1.80??

    by notalllivesmatter Aug 21, 2015 10:48 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 27, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    My take is the dividend will be closer to 2 dollars over the next four quarters. The game changed when they bought HLSS. Those numbers are already flowing to the bottom line and they will only increase (management is thinking in the 25% growth range for dividends next year).

    I thought the markets had a figured out when the share price was moving rapidly towards 20...but I guess it got scared when they did the secondary at 16 to pay for most of the purchase (better then debt IMO).

    It may take a few more quarters for the markets to figure out NRZ of today is not same as the one pre HLSS purchase....but that's what makes a market.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 27, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    'Essentially, this was a recapitalization that wiped out the then current equity, which really had no value.'

    Which is why the current share price is probably going to near zero....unless a while knight steps in or the company is able to get a straight up loan for 40M or so.

    The current warrants preclude a secondary.... the only option is a loan.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 27, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    When the CEO of SEDG was asked about ENPH's CEO comment about how micros will eventually be priced below a straight string system (never mind optimizers) he stated, in essence, that since it's never happened before he didn't expect it to ever happen.

    But that's what disruptive techs do? They disrupt the normal way of doing business.

    Don't expect this to happen overnight, because it won't.

    If I remember right the CFO mentioned something about a 2 year time frame for it to play out.

    In the end ENPH's micros have been dropping about 10% a year while inverters have been dropping about half that. But in order to catch and pass not just optimizers but a system without optimizers ENPH would need to cut another 30% off that number...in addition to the 20% they are currently on pace for.

    50% in 2 years is a HUGE number....especially since Nahi has stated he expects eventually margins to run from 32% to 40%.

    The home run here would be if ENPH wasn't just blowing smoke and really hit those numbers. Even if battery sales are zero at those price points they would own the space.

    Based upon the current share price one thing is very clear....the market thinks Nahi is blowing smoke.

  • Reply to

    analysts est drop

    by chhegu Aug 18, 2015 2:40 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 27, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    The analysts are trailing indicator here, not a leading one.

    They only dropped estimates after the share price got crushed.

    They had no clue on the way down and they'll have no clue on the way up.

    The only reasonable estimates are what the company gives one quarter out, then the analysts just
    dump that number into their estimates.

    Beyond that they have no clue. They didn't predict in 2013 that ENPH's growth was going to drop from 50% to 10% and they sure didn't predict it was going to jump right back to 50% the next year.

    As long as margins stay in the 32% range ENPH will be just fine. What that means is they are not sacrificing margins for revenue growth.....and what that means is they are still offering a enough value in their products to command a premium price.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 27, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    "Sorry, but from a purely tech point of view that does not hold water."

    Until you know all the details how can you make a comparison?

    My guess is what Nahi was stating is the battery they have chosen is superior to TSLA's by quite a bit.

    When he was talking about cycles of 11K vs 5K we figured out later he was referencing TSLA's battery.

    Suppose the round trip number 97% vs 92% is for TSLA also.

    Even if the S inverter loses 3% in and 3% out...it's still a push.

    And that's with everything else being equal....which it won't be since micros are already 3 to 4% more efficient than string plus optimizers.

    The other issue is how the heck is the other battery configured? So the DC comes off the roof, 100% runs into the battery, then out again to the central inverter?

    So if just in and out of the battery is 8%...there goes 8% right there for the competition 100% of the time (not to mention the hit on the life of your battery).

    Because ENPH's system is "smart" it can be directed. A "dumb" system only heads one way all the time.

    My thinking is when it boils down to smart vs dumb sometimes dumb wins...but not usually in this day and age.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 26, 2015 10:47 PM Flag

    That issue was brought up in the last C.C.

    "In addition to that there are other solutions out there and there are, as an example, some optimizer solutions out there that in fact have 7 stages of conversion. So if you look at the efficiency of our solution, we will always be more efficient and produce and generate more energy than another solution out there. In fact if you look at everything from the performance of our battery, which is north of 96% and close to 97% round trip efficiency compared that to some recently announced battery solutions that are down to 92% round trip conversion efficiency. If you look at the number of cycles that we have over our lifetime, somewhere in the neighborhood of 11,000 versus 5K for our competitor solutions, it speaks to the support of our system to be able to do multiple cycles every day."

    We don't know the all details yet, they have not been announced (we know nothing of the "S" inverter except it is bidirectional), but we do know the 5000 cycle battery was from TSLA.

    Remember, ENPH does not sell big dumb boxes like other inverter companies. They are chip based and can be programmed to meet various needs.

    I still don't know all the details of the battery..they haven't been released. But the CEO sure doesn't seem to feel he's putting an inferior product on the market. If it is, it would be a first for ENPH. They've always put a far superior product out there...it's why their margins are so high.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 26, 2015 10:33 PM Flag

    Luxor has a toxic finance deal in place. They call collect unlimited shares for the 120M they are owed.

    The only way to hose Luxor is make those shares worthless, but then guess who also loses?

    Yup, they would be shareholders.

    If you want to see what toxic financing can do to destroy a company check out GBSN. They signed a toxic deal a year or so ago that just went active.

    It's amazing how stupid some of these CEO's are when it comes to these deals. RCAP could have just paid a higher interest rate and still got the 120M (or floated another secondary when they were trading around 20), they didn't need to put a toxic deal in place.

  • and what it does to the share price.

    They were trading north of 3 dollars a few weeks back.

    I have no clue what managers take these deals....unless they are down to zero options.

    GBSN was not down to zero options...legit company.

    UNXL was not down to zero options....they were trading north of 6 bucks a share.

  • " Had the cashless exercise provision been exercised by all holders of our Series C Warrants at June 30, 2015, the Company would have had to either pay $47.7 million in cash or issue 15,392,014 shares of common stock. The number of shares of common stock that would be required to satisfy the cashless exercise provision increases as the price of the Company’s stock decreases and decreases as the price of the Company’s stock increases."

    This from the company's website.

    You can run the numbers from there based on the share price. It won't be exact, but it will be close.

    At 2.25 it's 15M shares.

    At 1.12 it's 30M shares.

    At .225 it's 150M shares.

    You get the idea.

    Bottom line...until this plays out it's best to stay away. When you're talking about hundreds of millions of shares who knows what the real market cap will be? Right now it's just day traders playing bounces, there is no value to judge....how would you judge it with an unknown and potentially limitless share count.

  • Reply to

    Market cap less than 2 quarters of Rev?

    by apemn88 Aug 25, 2015 3:14 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 26, 2015 1:25 AM Flag

    Remember Vivent used to be exclusive to ENPH and micros.

    The problem was they were fighting the 800 lb gorilla in SCTY.

    I guess they decided rather then just fight it why not let go along with those customers that drink SCTY's kool aid....micros are inferior in every way.

    The strategy worked, at least in the short term as their revenues jumped over 50% sequentially.

    It's clear the small installers love micro inverters (ENPH) and are good at presenting their product as superior to SCTY. They also can offer a lower cost because they don't have the huge marketing budget over hang that needs to be fed.

    But VSLR has the big marketing budget and did what they felt was best for their company. I don' t see that as a knock on ENPH products, just a marketing decision.

    ENPH stated they expected their sales to VSLR would start increasing after this quarter to match the numbers from their other distributors.

    Meaning growth may slow or even be flat this quarter, but will resume again next quarter.

    The big jump should be Q2 of next year when battery sales are in full swing....starts in Q1.

GAME
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