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Samson Oil & Gas Limited Message Board

joechentva 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 15, 2014 10:12 PM Member since: Jul 26, 2007
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  • Back to my favor penny oil stock. The two 3-Fork 1st bench wells (Bootleg 4 & 5) IP avg 550 BOPD, for a thin 30' sand stone 1st bench 3-Fork, they are right on par. The lower 2nd bench is thicker, should produce more. Then the much thicker 3rd and 4th benches. The tricky part was to find these 4 benches among the interbeded 28 formations in a total of 550' thick 3-Fork pay zones. The laterals could be drilled way off the target depth. Congrats to Slawson & SSN.

    The Rainbow project located in the northern tips of Williams cnty is close to the edge of the rich central Bakken bowl, thus a 500-600 IP rate is also on par from a thin 20' mid Bakken layer. However, there are still thicker 3-Fork four benches laying underneath mixed in the 28-formation 500' thick pay zones. You can't go wrong with CLR in charge.

    By the end of 2015, IF all 3-Fork benches are developed, SSN should have more than 3000 BOPD net from their deep ND leases (excludes the shallow South Prarie project).

  • SBOG has 180 K total acres and FST has 244K total acres. Their Cotton Valley (CV) acres were next to each others but now are one. So are their Eagle Ford (EF) acres. Since SBOG (private) will have 73% voting rights in the new FST, it's easy to sell their combined leases to foreign gas importers where $8 unit price is considered cheap. The foreign oil/gas companies can acquire US land leases through their US partners or subs, easily. They have plenty of cash.

    The SBOG 104 K CV acres + FST 163 K CV acres may worth $1.1 B conservatively. Their 40K + 23K EF acres may worth $700 M on the markets. It's very possible to sell these for debts reduction. After that, all revenues will be true income for the company without paying the high debt interests and due notes (2015).
    Cash positive in 2015, then go private by buying off the remaining 27% commons floating outside.

    If these event occurs, the common bag holders who entered around $2 pps would make good profits.

  • This is a major decision for SSN and partners since Bluff test well stopped at 8850', even oil shows at 8090', 8430' & 8650'. They wre going to hastily plug from 8350' to 8850', but now their brain is talking.

    Going deeper to 9500' they are in the lower Permean age which may first encounter Wykert formations, then Admire A, B & C formations at the lowest level of Wolfcamp group. There are producing wells of these formations within 50 miles. Underneath that are Upper Virgil (Red Shale) then Marmatom (Cherokee A, B & C) formations of upper Penn age. These proven production reservoirs are scattered in NE D-J basin, not far from the Hawkspring area. The approx 80 townships along the SE Hartsville Uplift (Hawkspring included) is the only area where these proven producing formations have not been located.

    The vertcal test wells are cheap drilling, going 10,000' is an easy task, worth a try.

  • Reply to

    Now it starts to make more sense

    by joechentva Jul 21, 2014 5:04 AM
    joechentva joechentva Jul 21, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    DVN, ex-GMXR and CHP , etc. all have large leases near by, some are up for grab. Hmmmmmm.........

  • SSN will evaluate the deepr gas cap at the top of the enclosure of the original Perm and Penn target zones. There were plenty of oil show at 8090', 8430' and 5% at 8650' drilling mud analysis. Why did they hastily try to plug from 8350' to 8850', without further investigation of the 150 bbl mud loss at 8836' and gas kick at 8400', it passed the salt washout and drill mud has oil shows. The later unsuitable rock type announcement contridicts the in-progress evidences during the drilling. Either someones messed up or purposely hiding info.

  • The 44% of commonshares were sold to Power Pex which is a sub of Wuxi Industry group, a state own company controlled by the Communist Party.
    The 2013 world copper production top 4 were Chile 5.7 MT (million tons), China 1.65 MT, Peru 1.3 MT & USA 1.22 MT. Most of the Chinese copper was produced around Wuxi area (Wuxi means this mine has no tin, but all copper) which has been producing copper for more than 1500 years. Copper still is the main stay for export and employment in that areas. Thus copper products are critical to the local economy and the state owned enterprise. Wuxi Industry has $23B in assets, backed by the stae owned banks.
    It is a common practice in the 1990s that new industrial companies were 50/50 ownership where the local state/city govt backed by local state banks provides 50% capital, i.e. land, factory structures, labors and local wages. The other 50% capital was foreign technical shares (equipment, technicians, export vanues, etc.) and some other Chinese financial institutions which includes some non-local state owned banks. Lihua probably was started in the similar manner then it IPO on Chinese and foreign markets to attract more investors. The ex-CEO and many ex-directors are probably very closely related to the governing core of Wuxi Industry who are the local communist party officials.
    Therefore, when things go bad, the local govt wanted its 50% back but got 44% common shares and the facotries, instead. Lihua is just a very small part of the Wuxi areas copper industry, but its revenue of $900M (2013, probably true because it has to turn the mined copper to marketable products.) is not a small part of the local economy. The only missing parts of this mess is where did the cash go?? The local govt will probably never announe the truth found to avoid involvements.
    The bottom line is the copper must be turned to products for the world markets, so that the local govt (communist party heads) will not have big unemployment.

  • Reply to

    Bluff-1 may become a cheap producing test well

    by joechentva Jun 23, 2014 10:01 PM
    joechentva joechentva Jun 26, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    MHR had two good buying opportunities, in Jan 2010 (I got some) and May of 2013. But now it's at all time high. I would sell 1/2, if I got in at $2.5 last summer. I did sell in 2011 for $3+.
    MHR is NG /NGL heavy. Marcellus shales and Appalachian shales are both NG rich, while Utica shale is NG/NGL rich with spotty oil cuts. MHR's $2.5B EV is 80% NG/NGL (presented in MBOE so few can tell the truth.)
    MHR's ND Wiliston leases are in Divide cnty and Canada, mostly 3-Fork/Sanish (100'-150' total depth). They are good long term producers in 150-250 BOPD 90-day range. SSN's 3-Fork wells probably are better since they are in Williams cnty.

    MHR has $600M 2012 debts due 2020, near $500M pref stocks and $226M 2014 debts due 2016. Commons are $90M. Yearly rev is $330M, $27M cash in June 2014. If MHR management is willing to sell Utica shales (the hot one among 3) which they got it cheap ($4400/ac). Then their heavy debt interests will be OK in the long run. Strapped for cash to pay debt interest is a problem. The $180M 2014 debt was for paying just that. The major differences between MHR and SSN are the load of debts + pref stocks, and NG/NGL heavy Vs oil heavy. Unless the NG/NGL prices go up signinificantly, I don't see any reason MHR commons would go much higher than the current pps.

  • Reply to

    Bluff-1 may become a cheap producing test well

    by joechentva Jun 23, 2014 10:01 PM
    joechentva joechentva Jun 25, 2014 12:24 AM Flag

    Oil/gas containning leases: Possible + Potential + Proven = 3P.
    1P = Proven , 2P= Potential + Proven.

  • Reply to

    Bluff-1 may become a cheap producing test well

    by joechentva Jun 23, 2014 10:01 PM
    joechentva joechentva Jun 24, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    Lynch, it was a total management selfish mess up at GMXR. Good leases with good 2P & 1P ratings, but they refused the sale proposals in summer of 2012 @ $20K/acre for 7K acres and @ $12K acres for 16K acres. It was the "dynasty" mindset which killed its financing. I lost $20K but learned a lesson. They have 35K leases in Chugwater WY not far from SSN WY leases, it is probably for sale now by the NYC financers/owners. Yes, we were cheated out by their managemnt family.

    SSN is a different case, it's a public owned company, no family "dynasty". They are here in the US to make money. They will sell anything for good cash to fatten everyone's wallet. I made more than $500K in the last 4 years. The Hawk Spring vertical wells can be @ 10-acre spacing, may produce more than 80 BOPD/well by surface pumps. Simple perf (or add frac) near the pay zones above the concrete plug could make Bluff-1 a producer. Drilling and completion of these shallow vertical wells are very cheap, SSN uses farm-in to share costs & risks is a safe & conservative plan. Of the 17K acres, at least 150 drill sites can be located. But after the leases becoming 1P, selling at prime prices may be their goal.

  • The lower Cretaceous and upper Jarussic groups ( Dakota/Lakota + Morrison formations) have 95.5' of pay zones. These formations are proven producers in the past. But how to complete this vertical well is yet to be determined. The drilling costs of vertical well is very cheap when compared to those long deep lateral bores.

    The Perm formations (may be Cherokee group) are known to have more than 20% porosity, but could be water logged as preventing the flow of oil from adjacent reservoirs. These formations are below the salt washouts, which the Spirit of America test well did not achieve. If these Permian formations can produce, it's icing on the cake.

    While cheap producing test wells earn revenues, drill more cheap vertical test wells to de-risk the leases from 2P to 1P. A good plan in place.

SSN
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