acting more like Charlie Sheen every day - just before he checked himself into rehab. Of course this guy could just be congenitally stupid.
short answer: I'm a firm believer in irrational exuberance.
That and the collective negativity of traders shorting EXEL because they view EXEL valuation as "bottom-line" and show-me-the-money when these same traders wouldn't know the bottom line valuation if it was shoved into a place where the sun don't shine. Immuno-onc has been hyped and sold as the cure for cancer and it just ain't so. Small molecule therapeutics will continue to play a dominant role in cancer therapeutics for many years to come and possibly always because most cancers are not immunogenic. As far as resistance to paying the companies that develop effective therapeutics goes - watch the money pour into any and all companies working on Zika virus or antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Obama just launched a new cancer initiative - more billions into the pot. Effective therapeutics will be paid for and EXEL has developed effective therapeutics.
one of the more intriguing aspects of EXEL is the enduring connection to Biogen. George Scangos and Stelios Papadopoulos are on BOD of both - these guys are some of the best in the biz. Connection to ARIA is Alex Denner, former Carl Icahn protege and head of Sarissa Capitol, a hedge fund. Denner is on BOD of both Biogen and ARIA. I still hold a significant position in ARIA and watch both EXEL and ARIA daily. Most days they trade in lock-step to the hour and in after hours trading to the minute - typically large number of shares traded in both companies at the exact minute for both. Usually ~ 4:30pm. large number of shares 10s and sometimes 100s of thousands of shares traded or "settled" at ~ 4:30pm. Coincidence? I doubt it.
Denner is especially interesting. Bought huge number of ARIA shares when FDA stopped pulled ARIA's drug for tox - blood clots or heart attacks or both. Stock lost ~ 90% of value and Denner bought them up. Forced the CEO and founder out and became CEO last month. Denner had already doubled his initial investment in 2014 and thinks there is room for more. btw. ARIA's drugs are kinase inhibitors and Denner has PhD from Yale and did his undergrad at MIT - dude's a scientist.
For all the justified complaints we longs have about EXEL management, MMM is only the face, not the brains behind EXEL business decisions. BOD is in charge and you can bet there is a lot going on behind the scenes. We should be happy they haven't sold out cheap to Roche. I still think decision on JV has been complicated by entertaining offers for a BO.
btw Ernie, I still think your wrong about EXEL's prospects and hope you jump back in. all serious longs are fed up with amateurish mistakes made by EXEL's management but I think they will be successful in spite of themselves.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge and thoughts. Been following and discussing with you for almost 10 years since Medarex days. I don't always agree with your interpretations but glad to hear them. Our kids are also grown but my work is very demanding and it's rare that i have the time to share my knowledge and thoughts. I also enjoy posting and should contribute more given my thirty years of research in immunology and oncology in academia and industry; esp. in these days of immuno-oncology. Makes me feel guilty that I don't contribute more after reading all the great posts from you, wilder, duck, etc..
today's announcement and subsequent discussion has been interesting albeit fraught with speculation on "true" OS value, validity of clinical trial comparisons and competitive landscape. I tend to believe in a more simple interpretation - seems to me the final numbers are not in yet or final analysis is not yet complete. 90+% of patients may be accounted for in cabo arm and it's clear cabo treated patients achieved stat sig OS advantage. All of which speaks for overall positive result as suggested by today's "OncoLive" post.
Hopefully, EXEL management has learned form past transgressions where they have over-promised and didn't deliver. Final results/analysis will tell us if management has learned their lessons. My money is on EXEL.
kali - you're clearly one of several idiots here. Captain is genius.
right there with you ff. great to see you here defending SQNM. Hoping for the best!
Sometimes publications come out due to pending layoffs or once a compound has been killed (decision made not to develop further). It gives the chemists a chance to get a publication out that would not have been possible if the compound was being actively pursued. This way the chemists have something to show for their work.
Of course another possibility is the patent was issued to EXEL/BI for those particular structures and chemists now have opportunity to publish. BI may be actively developing these compounds for clinical development. A milestone payment would be great.
word of caution here, EXEL does not list XL-541 as one of their "partnered" compounds. Any info on status of agreement between BI and EXEL?
I will always be grateful for your efforts. I've learned a tremendous amount from your posts over the years. Your ability to predict the timing of clinical trial announcements well in advance of public disclosure is phenomenal. I hope you make millions $$$$$ with your trading.
I still don't see Lev/Evo as a threat to cabo revenue stream. My bet is: if FDA grants approval it will be conditional on starting and completing P3. I doubt Eisai will take the chance of spending that kind of money given current competitive landscape.
Thanks again for taking the time to post your thoughts.
it may not be simply the availability of nivo as the delayed immune response in many, many patients treated with anti-PD1. Some patients do not respond for months after therapy has ceased.