Have been buying the KoolAid at $.89-$.93. Here's to them getting a contract (any contract will do) by end Q1. If Hugoton works out by end Q2, we may see further announcements of planned plants in/outside of USA. These two announcements should be good for $2-$3. If there is another contract done in 2H2015, I'll be pleased with a $4-5 price. More achievable if they get uplisted by 2H. Could turn out to be turnaround year. If not, then 2016. It will happen sooner or later. Need lots of patience with this company.
That $10M was a very nice insurance policy to keep it from completely keeling over. That $.25-$.35 was looming in the distance. I think January will bring some positive news. If Plant 1 goes operational by Feb, and Solar deal actually happens, we go back $2.50+. Here's hoping.
They're paying $2. They could have bought Under the market. Novartis is #1. Jackpot. $10 18-24 months.
$.70 low today. Looks like you are right and we hit $.65 next few days, and I beat the 12/31/14 deadline.
Wow, this is falling bayonet. How low do we go from here? I'll wager by 12/31/14 we hit $.40-$.50? Don't know if it's worth putting more into this sorry investment at those prices. Loses at tax loss time ...can't stop the bleeding with slow mo R&D programs.
Article in today's Seeking Alpha, discussing the paid for pump article, and their prediction $.01. Bottom line, management not coming clean, and shareholders are in for a very rude awakening.
good advice. ceo in deep weeds unless they execute, so i am counting on him to cya. otoh, the ceo is handcuffed in what/how he can communicate. until Jan 1, we are at the total, absolute mercy of tax loss selling. it will get uglier, probably much uglier. hopefully the plant starts running in early Jan, but who knows? no one wants to touch this with a 10 foot pole.
Waiting for capitulation. We haven't seen it yet. 1million+ shares under $.50, and I get interested in adding. Maybe.
The story is interesting, but the financial strategy/execution is foul-ball. Investors are caught in the ringer. Dilution by a factor of …..times. Take your pick, 5x, 10x, etc. $20 MILLION debt overhang. Report was a sleight of hand.
Maybe one day the management will come clean (hah). I see that they are smart enough to avoid conference calls. I would too if I were them. Pepi
There was a "research report" out yesterday. Nothing new in it that wasn't in CEO letter. It is meant to create an upside bounce before the pricing for the stock split. Highly questionable report. The company issuing the report may receive compensation or take shares before they publish their report. Wow, talk about an unbiased source! They claimed a $5 price target….without any financial tables to explain how they got their number. They did not discuss 1 single financial element of the company's path to profitability. One number did stick out in my mind, the outstanding debt is equal to the market cap. I noticed that the CEO said NADA regarding the company financials and how it remains solvent. I believe that this is a temporary high, and is more fairly valued at 1/3 of the current price, as an extremely high risk situation. Debt is ceiling high and going higher every quarter. Debt now close to 2 years of revenue. How do they begin to close this gaping hole? No discussion of how they even achieve break-even operations. What is Silverman doing now that he left the CEO spot? Chairman means he is watching his stock position..not sure of day-to-day involvement.
I was off on the sub-$1.00 achievement by a couple days. With tax loss selling, and plant #1 not "expected" until Q1 (March?), I'll split the difference ($.30 downside risk - $.95 today) with target downside of $.65 by December 31. Unless there is major news over the next 3 weeks, we are getting there….unfortunately my basis is over $2. Today's price at $.95………….at a all-time market high.
And why did they pull their listing application?
I thought they were ok from a financial perspective. I think the ag deal gets done in Q2 and starts generating some income Q3. Also, at least they get some revenue from Abengoa in Q1.
Bottom line, no rush to buy anything until late Q1 or Q2.
More downside risk here than upside in the near-term.
Lastly, Emelfarb seemed worn-out and not particularly upbeat on this cc, whereas the prior call I thought was exceptionally good.
At $.28 we're beginning to get closer to fair value…$10m market cap. $.13-$15 might be a good gamble if it gets there. This story is very, very murky. Hard to tell if they are meant to survive.
If we don't get news by Thanksgiving looks like we go sub-$1. Hate to think what the salvage/scrap value is for this investment without CHP. No plant up and running by XMas and this is really toast….$.25-.35?
One direction only until uplisting sometime in Q1. Recent quarterly news was another sleeper. Big quarterly losses. A shame that Hugoton was almost a full year delayed. This looks like it won't get its legs until 2016-2017. Ouch. OR if some contract(S) result in a significant revenue stream then 2H 2015 could be ok. The incremental R&D progress alone may not support a stock price over a buck.
What would risk be:
HTGZ - rates rise, bond declines, but hold until maturity 2019…get your 6-7%, if calamity strikes bondholders get first dibs; but upside limited to approx 7%.
Hercules Tech Common - market decline, stock dips, potential dividend cut..double whammy.
So….buy bond when stock above NAV/stock market at historic high
Questions: What is par?How do you ascertain: good entry price for the bonds; NAV for the common?
Hope you're right about an "ordinary" problem. That's clearly what the spin is. If it was so ordinary, then the President of BBLU should have gotten on a plane, gone to Germany, and ensured that the part came back with him that day on the plane. I think there is an untold story here, and the stock price has been deservedly hammered. I am still fearful about my investment. This is truly bush league baseball.
The problem is that they literally can't throw the switch to make the plant run on BBLU. They are lacking the necessary parts/technology to get the plant up and running. The longer this drags out, the greater the risk of keeping this project on the rails. This is an embarrassment that has the potential risk of becoming a fiasco, i.e.. a company stopper. This is the real risk, not a blog article. EVERYTHING hinges on getting that plant up and running.