RSX is not following oil now. Oil was up big Friday and RSX was down. They don't always follow each other. RSX failed at resistance and now will fall all the way back to 10.
Parsley was slammed twice in the span of two minutes, dropping 30 cents each time at 11:27 and 11:28AM on no news and light volume. SEC is asleep at the switch -- again!
I bought ABX Oct 16 calls a few weeks ago when Barrick was $12.62. I paid 45 cents. It's down 2.5%, and the options are down 64%. Seems a bit excessive to me for an out-of-the-money call, but I guess WS knows best!
When a mining exploration company makes a big discovery, the stock pops, and then it tends to drift lower as reality sets in that it takes years and billions of dollars to build an operating mine. Investors lose interest and the stock flounders for a while, sometimes years as the company raises capital, finds a JV partner, and then goes about building the mine. The stock usually bottoms just before production begins, and that's the best time to buy, just before things start getting really good. Mannkind reminds me of an exploration company about to begin production. The stock has plummeted at exactly the moment investors should be getting the most excited and earnings are just around the corner. So sit tight and be right!
I like your numbers better. I don't remember where I saw the 175 million number. According to the American Diabetes Association, as of 2012 there were 29.1 million diabetics and 21 million diagnosed cases. Since the US is around 5 percent of total world population, my 175m figure is probably pretty accurate. If you have a better source, please cite it. 5% of total diabetics (and remember, 25-30% of them will be undiagnosed if US is any guide) using Afrezza would be a huge victory for this drug. Let's get to 5% penetration first.
Yes, by 2030 there will be many more diabetics. Unfortunately, the patents on the Afrezza inhaler runs out around 2032 unless they can extend the patents. I'm not banking on that.
Why is it a recipe for disaster? We have only one real asset: Technosphere. Why not just maximize that asset by collecting tax-free royalties on its use?
I am not a tax expert by any means, but I'm wondering if we can farm-out the manufacturing of Afrezza to a spinco, which MNKD does at-cost anyway, and collect our share of the gross profit from SNY as a tax-free royalty. Any ideas if this is possible?
I'm grappling with this very issue. I look at it this way: 175 million diabetics in the world. If 5% go on Afrezza, that's 8.75 million users. If an annual prescription costs $2700, that's revenue of $23 billion for the JV. SNY's gross profit margin is 70%, or about $14 billion. X 35% = $4.9 billion for MNKD. After taxes, $3.6 billion, or $9 per share. 14PE = $126.
So Sanofi and Mannkind split profits and losses 65/35. If Afreeza is a blockbuster (big if) and sells $5 billion annually, what is the profit? What kind of margins are we talking about here? Thanks.
I also remember in 2002-2003 reading the stock quotes in the NY Times (do they still quote stock prices?) and noticing that Priceline was a buck. I thought, "Gee, that's awfully low. I love their commercials and their service is popular. They won't go bankrupt. Maybe I should buy some." Since I would've sold it a million times on its way over $1000 (for a potential 1000X profit), I'm glad I stayed away from that one.
I've got you all beat: I bought MasterCard at $48 pre-split and sold it at $51. I'm afraid to check the current stock quote. I also bought Teck Cominco at $3 and sold at $9 for a triple. It went over $60 a year later. I own MNKD. Bought at $9 and doubled-down on Friday at $4.05. I won't be selling. Good luck to all.
I don't follow Sanchez, but I have followed Parsley in the past and yesterday I swapped out of my ROSE (thank you, Noble!) for Parsley. Parsley hasn't needed to do a dilution and their acreage is very high-quality and oilier.