The value of the RICE stock is almost the per-share price of ANR stock, implying zero net value for the coal business. I would like to see the market price ANR stock post-distribution at zero. I don't believe that.
Stocks are frightened, dumb retail money. Bonds are conservative, smart institutional money. ANR bonds haven't budged. The news was almost no-news. But the stock has been obliterated. I don't like having frightened retail investors determining the value of my portfolio on a daily basis. I may not be a gentleman, but I definitely prefer bonds.
I hold the 2018 bonds and they're selling for 91 cents on the dollar. BK if it happens won't be until after 2018. But don't hold your breath. ANR isn't going anywhere.
We won't trudge higher -- we'll zoom. 35% short interest means lots of panic buying ahead. I agree with your theory, though.
Hey, maybe he could put a windmill on his head and catch all the wind coming out of his mouth! By 2030, there will be a new president, a new Congress, and utility prices will have adjusted back to world rates. Half the reduction in carbon pollution has already been achieved anyway. Big yawn from Obama. This was just another political move with no real-world effect. Once the last of the brain-dead traders sell their shares, we can go back up.
The year is almost half over. Stocks discount the future. If ACI is a better long-term bet, its bonds would be trading better than ANR's. Clue to the clueless: they're not.
Obama is a paper tiger without the guts or more importantly the power to demolish the coal industry. The regs to be proposed are not final regs. Once they are made final, a dozen state AG's are lined up ready to challenge them in court. Meanwhile, threatening to put an American industry out of business will almost guarantee a Republican victory in November. With a Republican Congress and many Senate Dems more afraid of their voters than a lame-duck President, the EPA will be neutered.
Look, this stock is being "walked down." You see it on the chart. It's not in free-fall. It's being very carefully manipulated down (along with the news, btw) to scare mom and pop out of this stock ahead of Monday. Once Monday comes, it'll be a classical case of buy the news and ANR will pop higher.
Think for yourself and don't let WS steal your money.
Government doesn't solve problems; it only makes them worse. By talking about eliminating coal, he is going to drive up the price of natural gas. The higher natural gas goes, the more the utilities switch back to coal. Already coal use is up sharply over 2012-2013 and that is going to accelerate after Monday. Short-term coal use is going up. Long-term it's still going up. Low will be made today or Monday.
You're an idiot. Obama can't bankrupt coal even if he wanted to. He'll be long before he can force any meaningful reductions in coal production. Coal generates over 40% of US electricity. It can't be replaced. Not now. Not 20 years from now.
I underestimated the wariness of investors to buy coal ahead of the new proposed EPA regulations. I don't see how Obama can restrict coal without sending utility bills through the roof and the lower atmosphere, but I am always early. Once the regs are released, investors will see the sky isn't falling and they'll come pouring back to buy the coal stocks they just sold the hell out of. It's a volatile industry and we longs just have to wait the scaredy-cats out. Unfortunately, there are a lot more of them than there are of us.