seb..not only do the debtors have to agree to a prepack which they will but .the shareholders have to approve a prepack by a 2/3rds vote....i do think these shares are worth 50 cents..and in time maybe 1 dollar..i disagree with your 4-7 dollars scenarion..still predicting that the common will be given 1 percent of the new company
only 2/3rds of the shareholders need to approve as opposed to 100 percent..its looking more and more like a deal will be reached...my revised prediction is as follows...the collective bonds, both secured and unsecured will be cut by 70% face value..such that there will remain only about 600 million in face debts, payable at a low interest rate..thus the old amount of bonds that have been swapped for new equity will have a par value of 1650 million,,1645 million in new shares will be issued and the current shareholders now will retain a 1% ownership interest, the old secureds will now have a 90% interest and the unsecureds will retain about 8-9%...once the company gets all this debt monkey off its back..it will hit 50 cents in short order, prolly after a few quarters
what I meant is that the new company with the 2 plus billion in new shares ..the market will most likely trade those shares to 50 cents..why? we have 400 million in cash on the books no debts a 200 million in ebitda (with a multiple of 4-5) so that's how I got 50 cent stock price..400 plus 800 (200 ebitda times a multiple of 4.5) divided by 2400 newshares////seb 50-60 cents is as good as its going to get..i doubt we will ever see 1 dollar again
again...if I were those lenders I would take a leap of faith and do a full swap...and watch the new company..NO DEBTS AT ALL..a newly restructured co. with just a fraction of employees and also the vast wasteful cost structure that joe walsh tore from the business last year and now in addition to having 400 million in cash on the books, NO DEBT , we now have massive free cash flow and also darn good net income...and a stabilized rev and margin picture just like yellow media has....there will be an earthquake in the stock price.the only question is how much of an earthquake? the newly issued 2 billion plus shares at a price of 50 cents ..we will easily see that and notice at that price the greedy lenders stock will be 50% of their par old bonded debts..look where they are now? not anywhere near that level..thats why I say these #$%$ holes greed is getting in the way of their common sense..if u lender #$%$h o les are reading this,....do us all a favor and do a full blown swap u will thank me
only 50 million shares have been authorized to be issued in addition to the 17 million now..so they will need our permission to authorize the 2 billion plus that will be necessary for a full swap....let them have all the voting rights, and let them stack the board with their choices...give us 1% with options down the road and everyone would be happy..if any of u debtors out there happen to be reading these words, I guarantee that anything LESS THAN a full blown swap will not work....eventually the revs and income will stabilize..i would say at 200 million in ebitda a year..just like yellow media of Canada..and with a 3 yr runway of strong cash flows will increase the cash to at least 700 million from where they are now..so do the calculation...700 million in cash and a multiple of 4.5 (that's the yellow media multiple) on 200 million in ebitda or 800 million is a total of 1500 million..divide that by 2400 total face debt)now the new equity) and we get a price of about 65 cents..thats the best that's going to happen
if the debtors did a full swap, the co. would go on debt free making strong free cash flow and strong net income and the stock price would react..the doubters here say that would be short lived cause its a dying business..if u believe that, tell them about yellow media of Canada ..same industry, same problems etc etc and their revenues have stabilized..the problem is that had these lenders did a full debt for equity swap 3 yrs ago, their stock would have been easily worth the par price of their bond investment....we have spent about 1 billion servicing these #$%$ HOLES DEbt the last 3 years...some on here will say they are owed this as they are contractually entitled ..yes they are, but had they done a full swap to equity and allowed the company to exist debt free the equity would have been equal to the par price..look at the jr and sr debts now..they are trading at #$%$ levels that's why their greed is getting in the way of their judgement...
7 or 4 dollars is a pipe dream...I agree that our shares cant be cancelled unless we go through a full bk, and the lenders know that would be a suicidal move as they would get much less in that process as opposed to doing a deal...I predicted that there would be a deal and no bk back in November when the co said it would stop paying..others said it would be..5 months later they are still trying to do a deal..i will now try to predict what that deal will be..the secured lenders will get 90%, the unsecured debt will get 9 percent and we will get 1 percent..they have to throw us a bone or else we could make a lot of trouble...now the fine points I think that are delaying these negotiations are the amount of the debt to equity swap...
...the by laws only authorize 50 million more shares without shareholder approval...in other words, we can only be diluted by like 75%...without a full blown bk, to do a deal, they will need our votes to authorize a huge dilution, on the order of 2 billion shares before a reverse split...we will do it cause we have absolutely no choice...also read my post last week re Paulson...that divestiture of 5% of his stake in the company to that merger law firm was in my humble opinion a way to allow the current shareholders to vote to do the coming deal and simultaneously allow him to escape breaching his fiduciary duty as a majority shareholder to us minority shareholders...come deal time there will be an earthquake in the share price....there is a lot of value to unlock here for all stakeholders involved if these debtholders have the faith that the stock market will value the new equity fairly .... case in point yellow media in Canada has 100 million in cash and 500 million in debt...the stock market is valuing their share price at 4.5 times their ebitda....but there is no elephant in their room seb..their debt is only 500 million.....the market will not go near DXM stock unless these bondholders do a full blown swap
john..i would agree with u that DXM may get 4-7 dollars a share in a buyout only if the co. had a debt level of a few hundred million, but you have to talk about the elephant in the room..the face debt right now is 2.4 billion and that doesn't even include the missed interest payments and penalties since November..so we are now probably at 2.5 billion..im sorry to say this, but there is a very very excellent chance that the shares will be wiped out or as I have predicted get 1% of the new equity and MAYBE just maybe trade to 50 cents ..but that's really being optimistic///these shares will never go over 50 cents and may just get clocked
from the 8k..."As of September 25, 2015, the Company had a cash bank balance of approximately $251.6 million, which provides substantial liquidity to fund its current operations." Ok, DXM is throwing off 25 million of cash each, and every month..so since 9/25/15, we have added to that 251 million approx. 100 million bringing the total cash pile..end of jan 2016 to about 360 million...now with feb and march u can expect another 50 million so by the time they file the 10k in march we should be approaching 400 million or thereabouts in total cash..now of course we have about 2.1 billion in face debts..again if these greedy debt holders would swap all debt for equity...leaving us peons with 1% of the new equity sans NO VOTING RIGHTS..They would control the board of directors...with the run rate of 2 years easily throwing off 500 million we would have 1 billion of cash in the spring of 2018....then if the revs and cash flow of this melting ice cube could stabilize into what say 100 million a year...slap a multiple of 8 onto that new equity and the old bondholders aka new equity would rise to their par investment and we current stockholders could squeeze about 1.25 out of this
tell that to the ny law firm which bought 5% of the whole company from Paulson..did they buy almost 1 million shares so they could just gamble? after all they are a restructuring merger/ workout firm...I agree with you, DXM stock will NEVER NEVER pass a few bucks...but it could go up to 65 cents or so in a heartbeat if a deal is announced soon
the example I gave is just one of hundreds and hundreds of strategies that could be pursued and tweaked to UNLOCK the value here...at least more value for all involved even if that means we get 75 cents...its not inconceivable that we could get that, its looking very grim roght now..but joe walsh did say when he was hired that he would 1. downsize the entire company from top to bottom doing mass layoffs and getting rid of the wasteful cost structure in 2015 (He did that exactly, and 2. restructure the balance sheet in 2016-which he is doing right now...so at least he doesn't appear to be winging it...im in at 15 bucks..i will never see that again..but we may see 1 dollar
nah they stopped paying everyone..the debtors greed is actually getting in the way of their common sense..if they swapped 100 percent of their bonds for equity...the company would not only immediately start making 25 million per month in cash gains building up a huge huge cash pile, they would also start making net income, (untaxed by the way b/c of their huge defeered tax assets) meaning that not only would they have strong ebitda as they do now, they would also have net income (I think the interest paydowns are on a depreciation schedule).....I think the debtholders should swap for 100 percent stock, then they could control the board to tie Joe Walsh's hands so that all free cash flow goes into some kind of reserve and cant be spent..this way...year after year the cash pile would be built up...and not wasted like in the past..this way, this may entice the bondholders to do the exchange of course we all know this is a melting ice cube..BUT lets assume we have a 3 yr runway they make 600 million added to the 350m million by end of march..or 1 billion...then the co. going forward in 2019 makes only 100 million in fcf...then we would be saved halleluiah
John Paulson reduced his stake in DXM by 5% from 12.5 to 7.5%.He sold those shares to a restructuring/stock merger law firm (I guess whom Paulson has hired in the past) Is it possible since Paulson is both a major debt holder and a major stock holder, that a conflict of interest would arise if he voted his debt shares for some deal, but realized that that approach would contravene his duty of loyalty that he owes to minority shareholders being that he is a majority shareholder? By selling off his 5% shares, that conflict would possibly be avoided as those 5% shares would be in the hands of others who would vote those shares in unison with other third non Paulson shareholders?..methinks this recent divestiture of paulsons DXM share position into the hands of his law firm etc etc, was a chess piece move type thing to get a deal done without compromising his ethical duty vs a vs a conflict of interest
all interest payments are being horded..since payments are roughly 12-15% on a collective debt pile of 2200 million per annum, by March, the cash pile should grow at least by 100 million, such that DXM should be approaching 350 million in cash when they file the 10k. Now there are also highly valuable tax assets too...who knows...maybe the yellow pages is putting together some kind of offer to assume most or all of the collective debts and throw us a bone paying us 75 cents or so...I think 75 cents is the best case scenario and that looks almost like a miracle....