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Affymax, Inc. (AFFY) Message Board

joenobody02 2515 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 46 minutes ago Member since: Dec 22, 2001
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  • Reply to

    MEMP to declare dist today?

    by keltus1952 Jan 23, 2015 12:56 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 2 hours 46 minutes ago Flag

    Group 1 Strong balance sheet strong asset
    CXO XEC FANG CHK
    Group 2 Strong balance sheet weak asset
    NFX PDCE QEP SM WPX
    Group 3 Weak balance sheet strong asset
    AR EPE LRE OAS PE RRC ROSE WLL
    Group 4 Weak balance sheet week asset
    AREX XCO GDP HK MHR MPO REXX SOGC SD SFY

  • Reply to

    MEMP to declare dist today?

    by keltus1952 Jan 23, 2015 12:56 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 24, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    Goldman Sucks has a piece out today dividing Shale oil companies into four groups according to the balance sheet and asset quality. Your AREX and REXX are both in the fourth group - a group with weak balance sheet and poor asset quality. This group remains me of the phrase - a bug looking for a windshield.

  • Reply to

    Eventual Distribution

    by edisney3344 Jan 23, 2015 4:22 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 24, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    Why is everyone assuming EVEP will be able to buy quality asset at distressed price ? There are lots of entities out there watching as well. Super majors looking to shore up their portfolio , hedge funds with money to throw at bargains, other less leveraged MLPs with the ability to borrow to buy. What advantage does EVEP has over these other entities ?
    What is plan B is they cannot beat out competitors in pursuing distressed properties ? What if EVEP's banker want a pound of fiesh for more fund to go shopping

  • Reply to

    Congrats Longs!

    by tedfiorito Jan 23, 2015 2:46 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 24, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    Thanks to Chandler and Byker, we have a buying opportunity like this even after all the good news. As is, we are at a sweet spot where a bottom is found and the share price has not yet moved too far away. Personally I think a 3 handle will soon be a memory. It may take some back and forth but there are 4 million shares short still need to get out at a decent price and this is it. ( And we have a whole weekend to think this through carefully ).

  • Think how EVEP will respond when it announce a cut in its distributioin. Got in at 12.25 this morning, got back out at 13.35. I will wait to get back in after the management announce what they want to do , one way or another. Keeping quiet is not helping anybody.

  • Reply to

    Suspect

    by jbcguy Jan 22, 2015 1:01 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 23, 2015 2:28 AM Flag

    LOL, that is called buy low sell high !

  • Reply to

    Byker blowing out 100,000 shares (at least)

    by bonkthegrups Jan 22, 2015 9:59 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 22, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    LOL some readers give you an automatic red thumb no matter what. Seems like you need to polish your image a bit so people do not run away the minute you appear.

  • Reply to

    Byker blowing out 100,000 shares (at least)

    by bonkthegrups Jan 22, 2015 9:59 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 22, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    That is great news. Now that the irrational drop has subsided there will be 100K+ shares someone itchy to buy back.

  • joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 22, 2015 2:46 AM Flag

    Man, you are good. Not in terms of catching the bottom but having the discipline to sell. Wish I trade more like you do.

  • joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 20, 2015 1:43 AM Flag

    What is your goal ? a 2X ? 4X ? or long term hold for distribution ? Elsewhere I read, GST keeps on getting mention as a 3-6X if oil recovers in mid 2016.

  • Reply to

    Too ALL.....Hope everyone is diversified!!!!

    by reality_gerald Jan 15, 2015 8:57 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 20, 2015 1:02 AM Flag

    Besides trying to be silly like Peter Lynch was, I am trying to point out the market is very tired at this point and is quite dangerous. Diversification may not even protect you. In this market, the best diversification is probably CASH. I have real estate, cash and 7 stocks but I hate it. I actually do not want to be in the market if not for getting dividend to pay bills. IOC is by far my largest and I am trying to retain the potential and minimize the risk ( Sell way in the money PUT, buy LEAP calls, sell the common etc.)
    I DONT TRUST THIS MARKET ! Diversification did not save anyone in the fall of 2008. I am trying to protect with SPY puts. Makes sense ?

  • Reply to

    Too ALL.....Hope everyone is diversified!!!!

    by reality_gerald Jan 15, 2015 8:57 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 19, 2015 4:07 AM Flag

    LOL . What did Peter Lynch say about diversification? Buy one , it is too risky. Buy two and both of them go down.

  • joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 19, 2015 4:02 AM Flag

    Thanks for spending the time doing the projection and for generously sharing. Looking back to Seeking Alpha comment section on this dog, there were a lot of underwater investors eagerly agree it was a bargain at 11.74 and they swear they will buy more. Same when it dips to $7 and change. Now at $4 and change, it become once again a "bargain". IMHO, MCEP will have no choice but to cut its distribution. When that happens, you will have a bargain of $2.
    MCEP should just close shop and hibernate until oil price recovers. Seriously the beating will not stop until more E&P go bankrupt. It will take a while.

  • Reply to

    Thank you, Kaliboo

    by mspieks Jan 17, 2015 3:01 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 17, 2015 11:12 PM Flag

    I sell puts too. My $27.5 2015 put just expired made me over $30K but my $50 killed me. A lesson I learnt repeatedly is not to underestimate how low a stock may become. That $27.5 and 50 put was sold Dec 2013 when the share was at $90. Consistently the lowest LEAP PUTs were the only ones made money.
    I bought some $40 2016 calls yesterday.

  • Reply to

    Thank you, Kaliboo

    by mspieks Jan 17, 2015 3:01 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 17, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    I think your concern for even lower oil price is at odd with facts. If you take a look at oil future, it is in contangon, It makes no sense to produce and sell into low prices when you can fetch more by letting the oil or gas sit underground. Elsewhere I read there is the argument that if you stop producing the well will run into permeant decline. Others with hand on experience refute that notion. Turns out it is even a common practice for a drilled well to " soak " to enhance production, including turning non productive wells into productive ones.
    Reportedly, some small private companies simply stop producing.
    Apparently oil traders are not as concerned about oil going further down as several of them traders started last week to buy (at $50) and lease tanker to store oil. The one year cost of staring them is about $5-7 /barrel. Talk is cheap. Experts in oil trading bet their cold hard cash.
    Regarding IOC future price , the fundamental says buy but the price is manipulated so the OSH arbitration outcome may be seized as an opportunity to inflict panic and get money out of fools. There will not be a lack of buying to take advantage of the dip if it comes. Even now I am starting to pick up more low cost call (leaps). Investing in IOC is never a short term endeavour, that should be clear to anyone by now.

  • Reply to

    Thank you, Kaliboo

    by mspieks Jan 17, 2015 3:01 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 17, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Most of US Shale oil is NOT hedged. For 2015, about 14.5% is hedged.

  • joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 16, 2015 3:31 AM Flag

    You assume someone know something extremely serious the management has not disclosed. That is just BS.

  • joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 14, 2015 3:44 AM Flag

    I wonder if T.Boone Pickens might not have sold already before it crashed to $2. When he bought GST for $7 a share oil was at $70. If he held on and rode GST down from 7 to 2 would you trust his judgement ?

  • joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 11, 2015 12:40 AM Flag

    Russia's financial mister, Anton Siluanov, is the one person who spend the most time with Putin. Putin may not be a financial genius but he is not stupid and he is paying attention. Wish I can say that about our Dear Leader who spend the same amount of time practicing golf as Tiger Wood.

  • According to Reuter some of the world's largest oil traders Vitol [VITOLV.UL], Trafigura [TRAFGF.UL] and energy major Shell (RDSa.L) have this week hired supertankers to store crude at sea for up to 12 months. They were able to get a low rate of $40000/day when they booked them vessels for 12 months. Storage capacity of these vessels range about 2-3 million barrels. That translates into a $5-7 per barrel for a years storage. At this weeks oil price of about $51, it implies these large oil trading firms believe oil will fetch more than $56-58 per barrel in a year. Shipping sources said more oil traders have also been making enquiries in the past week.
    As mo one in their right mind would enter a trade for a year if they believe it will only break even, these oil traders believe oil will substantially higher than $60 a barrel in one year.

    Will MLPs hedged out to end of 2015 be able to survive then ? Elsewhere I read, the true cost of shale oil is $80-85. Personally I think OPEC may allow oil to recover to, at the most, $79.99 to prevent shale fro coming back.

AFFY
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