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Affymax, Inc. (AFFY) Message Board

joenobody02 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2015 2:05 PM Member since: Dec 22, 2001
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  • According to Reuter some of the world's largest oil traders Vitol [VITOLV.UL], Trafigura [TRAFGF.UL] and energy major Shell (RDSa.L) have this week hired supertankers to store crude at sea for up to 12 months. They were able to get a low rate of $40000/day when they booked them vessels for 12 months. Storage capacity of these vessels range about 2-3 million barrels. That translates into a $5-7 per barrel for a years storage. At this weeks oil price of about $51, it implies these large oil trading firms believe oil will fetch more than $56-58 per barrel in a year. Shipping sources said more oil traders have also been making enquiries in the past week.
    As mo one in their right mind would enter a trade for a year if they believe it will only break even, these oil traders believe oil will substantially higher than $60 a barrel in one year.

    Will MLPs hedged out to end of 2015 be able to survive then ? Elsewhere I read, the true cost of shale oil is $80-85. Personally I think OPEC may allow oil to recover to, at the most, $79.99 to prevent shale fro coming back.

  • joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 4, 2015 6:48 PM Flag

    I have Avi on ignore for as long as I remember but I am going to put you on ignore also. I dont need to see his name every time I come to this board and you keep bring ing it up.

  • Reply to

    Did LNCO open the door for MEMP to cut?

    by keltus1952 Jan 2, 2015 9:38 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 2, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    Justification to cut ? How will MEMP justify cutting dividend while buying back shares ? Makes no sense. LINE on the other hand is known to have survival issues with its high debt. They are smart choosing today to cut taking advantage of the new year buy back by tax selling crowds. How is LINE going to survive its debt longer term if oil price remains down.

  • Reply to

    MEMP got a good mention in Barrons today

    by bicepsbunny Dec 31, 2014 2:45 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Jan 2, 2015 1:17 AM Flag

    Not to mention VNR uses 3 way collar hedge. At current price that is as good as not having hedged.

  • Reply to

    EROC

    by joenobody02 Dec 30, 2014 3:18 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Dec 31, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Really ? How is it possible the wells in all four four regions within the United States EROC operating on run out of oil and gas, and including the ones in Permian basin too. You want to be taken seriously, state the facts , not your opinion only.

  • Reply to

    What are you longs strategy here.

    by aga0115 Dec 29, 2014 1:37 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Dec 30, 2014 4:10 AM Flag

    By buying up distressed quality asset at a fire sale price, MEMP will grow and triple is not out of the question.

  • joenobody02 by joenobody02 Dec 30, 2014 3:18 AM Flag

    Everything looks so rosy for EROC except when you look at its four years record. EROC has been on a down trend all these years. The trend has been so consistent even at $100 oil it is scary. Something is very wrong, I have no idea what it is but the share price performance does not lie. The 5 year chart of most other names I follow either went up or stay horizontal. EROC is a breed of its own.
    I think I stay with MEMP.

  • joenobody02 by joenobody02 Dec 24, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    I wanted to buy more today but ended up selling the July $17.5 PUT instead. Got $4.3 for it so the worst that can happen is I get assigned at a net of $13.2. Better than buying it at $14.46 today by 6 cents after subtracting the $1.1 in dividend for the next two quarters.

  • Reply to

    When Wells talks people listen....

    by jim_hairball Dec 24, 2014 1:08 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Dec 24, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    LGCY is higher as some of us hope it will take advantage of the low price environment to scoop up some bargain.
    MCEP is lower because people doing dd keep looking at its yield and expect it to be cut.
    VNR with its three way collar ,is not as safe s it may sound.
    LINE should go down more, but people think it is TOO BIG TO FAIL.

  • Reply to

    Start buying now? What we (sort of) know

    by bicepsbunny Dec 11, 2014 4:30 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Dec 22, 2014 2:07 AM Flag

    Casey Hoerth ( Dec 1) stated that the management now estimates a cost of production of around $30-$35 per barrel. This is quite different from your $41-$65 estimate.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2721335-mid-con-energy-partners-looking-toward-a-rough-2015minus-2016

  • Reply to

    Fellow Longs

    by bigbear.2010 Dec 13, 2014 10:56 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Dec 14, 2014 12:44 AM Flag

    I am holding tons of MEMP and tiny little bit of ARP. With every MLP down so much, I would recommend people do a lateral transfer into MEMP. If one were to buy MEMP at $13 today and reinvest the quarterly dividend till mid 2019 (the end of their current hedge), one would get $14.41 in dividend. That translates into a 111% gain. For simplicity, I assume the share price of MEMP stays at $13 through out but it does not matter. If it goes down = you get more shares to capture more dividend. ( If it goes up , congratulation ).

  • Reply to

    time to buy?

    by dak2004v Dec 10, 2014 6:58 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Dec 10, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    Coverage ratio based on reported DCF is 1.51 but it is 0.67 based on sustainable DCF according to Ron Hiram. i.e if no more working capital is needed for the future.

  • Reply to

    thank god for hedging

    by jimjones62 Nov 27, 2014 12:02 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Nov 28, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    It was first proposed by Michael Reagan on March 6 this year. He mentioned his dad used Saudi to destroy the USSR back in 1986. Oil price dropped from $31 to $10 in a few months. The USSR was destroyed along with quite a few US petrol companies.

  • Reply to

    IOC likely to get clobbered

    by bonkthegrups Nov 27, 2014 7:22 PM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Nov 28, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    No, AVI is an #$%$. Don't bring him into the discussion.
    Last year the share price reached $106 briefly on May 23,2013 and again $92.25 on Dec 13.2013. We could have bailed and only have ourselves to blame.

  • Reply to

    Re "Discovery"

    by mspieks Nov 14, 2014 11:37 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Nov 14, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    I wonder how it will work out. L Brown did say Triceratops, Bobcat, raptor and Antelope deep are all within the 45 km tie-back radius. Will Total consider the ng from these wells in their payment calculation ? If not, why not, ng is ng , especially it comes out from the same pipe at the end.

  • Reply to

    Raptor is an official DISCOVERY

    by whoooaaaaa Nov 14, 2014 7:57 AM
    joenobody02 joenobody02 Nov 14, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Hession also mention it is a multi TCF prospect. Laure Brown said it, Triceratop, Bobcat and Raptor antelope deep are all within a short distance from E/A , a 45km radius for tie back. This makes all these discoveries, big or small, commercially viable.

AFFY
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