You know , if we grant the management a lot of options they may be more incentivised to maximise the value of the share holders. I know people do not like that but business is business. It is better to give away a billion dollar to the management than to give it all away to Roche.
You are correct in that timing is everything. However, they can sign deals base on perceived value and contingent upon approval. In some country they may even need to go through clinical trials before approval so an early start is important. In each country there are multiple companies to negotiate with so no , it will not be sold cheap.
-Speaking from my first hand experience years earlier on a patented biotech drug.
I think GALE can reach its true value by going out now to negotiate with the pharmaceutical companies . Sell the right to market in Japan to the Japanese. Sell the Chinese marketing right to the Chinese. Leave Europe to Roche. Sell the US right to Merck or Pfizer or JNJ or whatever. I bet the share price will go up incrementally as each right is sold and the incentive for Roche to partner increases. I think we get the top dollar this way compare to selling the whole company to a single entity like Roche . Shareholders, go to quarterly meetings annual meetings etc to make your voice heard (very politely and diplomatically).
I am very aware of the shorts tactic. In fact that AVI guy was on to my other holding IOC too. It would be a shame if the shorts had managed to put GALE out of business. There are #$%$ on earth that would make a buck and the hell with everybody else.
I did not post anything about them as I just put them on ignore all the time.
I did not post more because I think I was reaching the words limit as the typing do not appear anymore. I even have to delete all the URLs that support my one sentence summary ( like the NASDAQ figure on institution ownership). In fact, for every sell there was 5 buys last quarter.
Again, shareholders need to be much more vocal in poking the management if we hope to benefit from GALE's true value.
GALE is in big trouble. Both New/Vax and G-301 trails are showing great results. As such it will be a target for takeover --- on the cheap. Here are the problems.
(1) Very low institutional ownership - Less than 20% are owned by institutions. Even I own more than Goldman Sucks and that tells you in a hostile takeover, no powerful institution will come to the defense of GALE.
(2) The potential suitor Roche has been found guilty of fixing vitamin price in Europe and was fined half a billion dollars - the biggest ever at the time for price fixing. You think they will pay up to a little nothing of a biotech like GALE ? Here, $5 take it or leave it.
(3) Management has a checkered past. That was one of the reasons I hesitated when thinking of investing and I jumped in and out several times in the past but am tempted by the G301 data and hence come back in. You don't think the management will sell out the shareholders if Roche offer them a golden parachute ? Think again.
What then can GALE do to safe guide its shareholder interest ? Plenty if they want to do it. OR, if they are pushed by shareholders to do it.
(a) They can go on a road show to promote the company to other institutions . They can even go talk to the big institution holders , telling them the danger of a cheap takeover and what the values of GALE is. They can ask the big guys to help. Blackrock holds a lot of shares and they probably can do a lot that the GALE management cannot - like getting more instuitions interested and advise them how to fend off a hostile takeover. e.g. put in a poison pill (e.g. 1:100 shares issue if hostile takeover were to occur ). It s true last quarter there were big increase in institution ownership but it is still not enough and way too low.
(b) Partner with other big pharmaceutical companies, sort of give them the right to other Neu/Vax or G-301 in exchange for % payment. By leaving not much in house for Roche to benefit from, Roche may decide to partner instead.
Make a list of upcoming events and post it here at the top for everyone to refer to. Stock goes up in anticipation.
A stock does not go up or down without news. It will help if we create a list of anticipated events with date for investors to look forward too. GALE PR should be able to tell us when and what they expect to do with each of the products. I for one would like to know what they plan to do with GALE 301 next.
A7 is not a requirement for the first certification. Even A6 was optional but can be included. With TOTAL taking over as the operator they may want to just pay less upfront and wait 5-10 years for the second certification. There are other prospects they can rely on to provide the gas by tie back even if they want to build a 3 train facility.
A Wahoo deal with XOM is definitely a win win for both IOC and XOM. I can just see the news headline ------------ Little unknown undervalued company hit the big time, sighing LNG deals with one super major after another, raking in billions blah blah blah.....
Like yesterday, any pull back was immediately overpowered by buying. The uptrend is being established as we speak. The fundamental has improved so much since last time we were at $60. People are eyeing $60 as the next target.
Take a look of the one year chart. There were quite a few jumps like this. Take a look at the Oct 16 one, the share went from 45 to 48.53 in one season and that was followed by three gap ups in the next few days and then an uptrend that last quite a while (I think until Chandler got a margin call on his other holdings)
Where do you expect the TOTAL/IOC jv plant to be set up ? If it is next to XOM's we have bargaining power. If it is far away, XOM could low ball it.
Is it true the room cost $1000 a night ? That is 20 shares worth of IOC, LOL.
What is your impression of the " No compartmentalization " data. How did they explain it ? To me that is one of the most important result that would make or break the stock. The market is skeptical, probably due to ignorance of how this kind of thing works in the field.
Well, I was thinking about my own predicament of having invested in IOC from 2007 on. I should have invested in oil Search instead. LOL, I should have done and lot of trading differently too.
In any case, from now till 2022, we are looking to spend close a lot of money that IOC does not currently have. That is a concern. Something needs to happen for that money to materialize . I suspect we will get bought out long before then and you know what, I bet the management will be the ones who will benefit the most in a takeover.
Notice the date of certification payment has now silently moved from end of 2015 / early 2016 to 1Q 2016.
The most funny slide is #36 where it showed the share price of OSH has TRIPLED. There was no mention of what happened to IOC share price in comparison. Does it mean we all should have sold IOC and bought OSH ?