GALE is in big trouble. Both New/Vax and G-301 trails are showing great results. As such it will be a target for takeover --- on the cheap. Here are the problems.
(1) Very low institutional ownership - Less than 20% are owned by institutions. Even I own more than Goldman Sucks and that tells you in a hostile takeover, no powerful institution will come to the defense of GALE.
(2) The potential suitor Roche has been found guilty of fixing vitamin price in Europe and was fined half a billion dollars - the biggest ever at the time for price fixing. You think they will pay up to a little nothing of a biotech like GALE ? Here, $5 take it or leave it.
(3) Management has a checkered past. That was one of the reasons I hesitated when thinking of investing and I jumped in and out several times in the past but am tempted by the G301 data and hence come back in. You don't think the management will sell out the shareholders if Roche offer them a golden parachute ? Think again.
What then can GALE do to safe guide its shareholder interest ? Plenty if they want to do it. OR, if they are pushed by shareholders to do it.
(a) They can go on a road show to promote the company to other institutions . They can even go talk to the big institution holders , telling them the danger of a cheap takeover and what the values of GALE is. They can ask the big guys to help. Blackrock holds a lot of shares and they probably can do a lot that the GALE management cannot - like getting more instuitions interested and advise them how to fend off a hostile takeover. e.g. put in a poison pill (e.g. 1:100 shares issue if hostile takeover were to occur ). It s true last quarter there were big increase in institution ownership but it is still not enough and way too low.
(b) Partner with other big pharmaceutical companies, sort of give them the right to other Neu/Vax or G-301 in exchange for % payment. By leaving not much in house for Roche to benefit from, Roche may decide to partner instead.
I think GALE can reach its true value by going out now to negotiate with the pharmaceutical companies . Sell the right to market in Japan to the Japanese. Sell the Chinese marketing right to the Chinese. Leave Europe to Roche. Sell the US right to Merck or Pfizer or JNJ or whatever. I bet the share price will go up incrementally as each right is sold and the incentive for Roche to partner increases. I think we get the top dollar this way compare to selling the whole company to a single entity like Roche . Shareholders, go to quarterly meetings annual meetings etc to make your voice heard (very politely and diplomatically).
Make a list of upcoming events and post it here at the top for everyone to refer to. Stock goes up in anticipation.
I am very aware of the shorts tactic. In fact that AVI guy was on to my other holding IOC too. It would be a shame if the shorts had managed to put GALE out of business. There are #$%$ on earth that would make a buck and the hell with everybody else.
I did not post anything about them as I just put them on ignore all the time.
I did not post more because I think I was reaching the words limit as the typing do not appear anymore. I even have to delete all the URLs that support my one sentence summary ( like the NASDAQ figure on institution ownership). In fact, for every sell there was 5 buys last quarter.
Again, shareholders need to be much more vocal in poking the management if we hope to benefit from GALE's true value.
If what you said is true I will back up the truck and load up on IOC. It tells me IOC finally know how to work in a third world country. Money buys everything, government and critics of government. Ever since the invention of money, bribe is the way to get things done. Ha ha ha ha !!
That moron is also active in another stock I hold - GALE. Looks like he is specialised in bashing stocks with great promises but not quite there yet.
I am proposing that we write a letter to the management suggesting the followings: -
(1) To incentives the management in fending off undervalued takeover attempts . We propose the compensation structure of the management be altered to include granting them options to the tune of 5% of the company.(Void if the company is takeover,)
(2) To fend off unfriendly takeover attempts. We propose that the management converts the potential into concrete income avenues by immediately actively seek out partnerships with international pharmaceutical companies by selling them the marketing right of their local market.
Please voice your opinion as to the pros and cons of this letter. What should be added. IF you do not like the idea, please propose yours for all to critic.
Do yourself a favor. Sell 12 $70 calls. That way you can at least get more than your $66 target. I also think you should not be getting nasty posts on your pending move. Everyones situation is different. May be you have other places that will treat your money better than IOC could, so why not. As for me, I need it to go way over 100 to even consider letting some go.
Strong sign ? The market does not think so. All things oily on my screen gone green except for one POS of a stock. Guess which one.
The management may be afraid to hold the cc in June since they will have to answer questions on the lack of progress drilling.
He is also bashing my other stock GALE which has gone up from 1.2 to 1.63 since I mentioned it a few days back. His master must be really mad at him for not doing his job.
I know what the long arguments are - that the lawsuit is more of a problem for Dreamwork than for GALE but I am simply trying to image the worst possible outcome and consequence. I can almost hear the short argument - that GALE will not get to be a $20 billion company. I believe it will base solely on its science and the potential market. Sorry again Jame2tx, it is not $200 billions - that was a typo in the last sentence of the source you cited nd misinterpreted. I am surprised you read it so hastily and am even more surprised at the upticks you got and the mindless cheering that followed.
(3) The possible need for further dilution is real. I do not know if the FDA will grant GALE anything early or that Roche will attempt an early takeover. If none of these materialise ( I don't think they will ), GALE will have to go back to the market. However, by the time this happens, say in 2016, the clinical trial results would have pushed the share price substantially higher, making fund raising that much less painful to absorb. Thus, I am not worried future funding issues will stress the share price too much. You longs here when the last dilution took place really had it hard and I took advantage of the drop to come in and I don't think the next fund raising will look anything like this time.
All of these argument things on a successful clinical trial outcome and all data from the past ( and to some extent from that of GNBC ) are supportive.
You are going to jail for spreading rumours to manipulating a stock for personal gain. They love fresh meat like you in jail house.
The release you cited is out of date . There informaiton is superseded by the latest information ala the ASCO abstract. The 38% reduction in recurrency was from data in which the low dosage treated patients were counted. 11/22 control and 9/29 301 treated
If only the 1000 mcg treated patients were considered we get 11/22 control and 1/15 treated with p=0.01.
This result was often cited on this board but really one should look at the data more critically. Obviously the lower dosage ones are not working as well as the 1000 mcg. So if we group the data differently we get
1/15 treated with 1000 mcg recurrence
(11+8)/(22+14) = 19/36 = 52.7% recurrence with 0-500mcg treated which is better than the 50% (11/22).
In fact the data is even better if we assume the 100 and 500 mcg did have some effect on the patient .