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Peabody Energy Corporation Message Board

joeschmo_4 253 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Sep 13, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Buy Back

    by mmrrus Feb 22, 2016 1:45 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 22, 2016 8:04 PM Flag

    Stockbroker - I'm just a little younger than you but not by much. I didn't mean to scare you by my comments. I'm no expert, and don't have all the answers. I could be completely wrong.

    Portfolio diversification has been key to me for many years as I've had some spectacular successes and some miserable flame-outs as well. I hope this doesn't mean you'll be living on peanut butter and crackers for the rest of your life. Remember these shares still pay dividends.

    Best of luck to you and fellow Longs. I'll be monitoring.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Buy Back

    by mmrrus Feb 22, 2016 1:45 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 22, 2016 5:45 PM Flag

    stockbroker - Pull up a comparison 5 yr chart with GBX and ARII. All 3 are tracking very similar. OK TRN may not hit the single digits for an extended time, maybe intra-day, but the major factors I see here are (1) drastically lower earnings for 2016 (2) no change in sight for commodity bearishness (3) skittish market conditions in general (4) lower renewal rail car lease rates (5) a statement made several times on the CC that their product mix has shifted importantly (I forget the exact word they used) from higher margin to lower margin products.

    I'm holding a small position in the event I am wrong - but I'm in no hurry to buy either. Big move today in the markets BTW ... TRN sags a bit lower ... I think that's going to be the theme unless the factors I stated above change.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Buy Back

    by mmrrus Feb 22, 2016 1:45 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 22, 2016 5:22 PM Flag

    miskeen - Pull up a 5 year chart. Yes I like the management, their balance sheet, their current earnings, all current positives ... but this is a deep cyclical. I hope I am wrong - but I'm not accumulating - not yet, anyway.

    Cheers,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Buy Back

    by mmrrus Feb 22, 2016 1:45 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 22, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    Thanks for the buy back info brad. IMO I doubt TRN is buying back this soon. Crude is up today (though no one I suspects trusts the move) and imagine if crude was DOWN where TRN shares would be trading. They're down just a little bit on a strong crude day.

    No, unfortunately I think we'll hit single digits before a reliable turnaround. That would be when to hit the gas pedal on share buybacks.

    Joe

  • Reply to

    MF: Buy NVAX

    by birdyvax Feb 22, 2016 9:30 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 22, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    Ahhh ... Patience, patience, patience. BTW horcents my post on you "needling" us was a play on words ... vaccinations ... needles ... It's easy to get "stuck" on this company.

    Enjoying the Green,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 22, 2016 8:57 AM Flag

    It's also not rocket science that poor management working primarily on behalf of themselves and not on behalf of shareholders is a major factor in good companies becoming poor ones. How do you know worker productivity isn't what it should be? Are they being led by wise management?

    Joe

  • Reply to

    We Can Be Called....

    by horcents Feb 20, 2016 1:23 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 20, 2016 5:05 PM Flag

    Are you needling us horcents? :-)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Prevnar 13 and its marketing Advertisement

    by uashg8 Feb 20, 2016 12:31 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 20, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    As the guy says in the commercial, "Get this done" ... so NVAX will get it done once the PIII results are in. I see that commercial on almost a daily basis and can imagine what we'd see if PFE somehow links up with NVAX on a marketing or distribution basis.

    Cheers to you and fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    THE MORNING STAR. ( FIRST HALF)

    by ouabra45 Feb 19, 2016 4:41 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 19, 2016 6:24 PM Flag

    ouabra - Gotta hand it to you - you're not "waisting" my time (please google that too for definition) ... you obviously put alot of work into TA and you're passionate about it and when it's all said and done if it's a reason to remain optimistic as a NVAX Long then good for you, good for us.

    Cheers!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    For giggles

    by miskeen732 Feb 19, 2016 12:52 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 19, 2016 1:02 PM Flag

    Or even look at Amazon. But it's apples and oranges. We both know that miskeen. TRN's earnings have peaked for this cycle and are heading lower. Classical cyclical. Assets won't matter if they're not making money, and fixed overhead costs are effectively rising as sales volume decreases. This won't inspire any gratitude from the YMB I'm sure but it wouldn't surprise me to see TRN bottom out in the single digits before the inevitable turnaround (or buy-out).

    Somebody call Warren.

    Cheers!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    No news is good news.....

    by cmarriott11 Feb 19, 2016 12:33 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 19, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    Excellent summary cmarriott. You're taking a long term focus and that's great. I agree completely.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 by joeschmo_4 Feb 19, 2016 12:25 PM Flag

    I think we're going lower. Management was forthright in their CC - however the news is bad for shareholders. Customers are playing wait and see; they foresee diminishing overall product margins as 2016 progresses; they're being hurt by a stronger dollar and weak commodity cycle. They discussed a "sizeable" shift in product mix (presumably to lower margin products). The tank car backlog has essentially been filled.

    I expect to see analyst downgrades beginning next week. Not much to be optimistic about.

    I still have a small holding here. Will continue to hold. I've never shorted any stock and don't intend to here. But we're going lower.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The Elephant in the Room - Litigation Concern

    by joeschmo_4 Feb 18, 2016 7:34 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 19, 2016 10:38 AM Flag

    Anecdotally I have heard that most companies don't have the skill or the interest in timing their stock buy-backs to make use of adverse market conditions. I seriously doubt that in Nov or Dec they could have anticipated January's market selloff or this month's volatility. Nevertheless now would seem a good time for a share buy-back.

    On the subject of buyouts, this might be a WB type of company to buy. He loves well-managed companies focused on the long term with wide moats in terms of competition.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The Elephant in the Room - Litigation Concern

    by joeschmo_4 Feb 18, 2016 7:34 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 18, 2016 8:04 PM Flag

    I'm with you, miskeen. Really nothing more to add. These shares have a stink painted on them that's difficult to ignore. At this point I'm not sure what more management can do as operationally they have exceeded their own and many analysts' targets. Perhaps tomorrow they'll back-pedal a bit on such a bearish 2016 outlook.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Has that suddenly gone away? Curious it's a non-issue. Meanwhile it's a perfect storm for Long TRN shareholders. I think management has given a worst case scenario for 2016, which they will likely improve upon, as they've been skilled at under-promising and over-delivering.

    The CC tomorrow morning will be interesting.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Earnings Estimates

    by joeschmo_4 Feb 18, 2016 3:09 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 18, 2016 3:12 PM Flag

    Correction - Value Line calls for $1.08

    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • joeschmo_4 by joeschmo_4 Feb 18, 2016 3:09 PM Flag

    Yahoo's average is $1.09
    Value Line calls for $1.13
    I'm guessing it will be $1.20

    And yet somehow the market will take that as an excuse to sell off.

    Any other guesses?

    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    There's Something Happening Here

    by joeschmo_4 Feb 18, 2016 12:20 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 18, 2016 12:35 PM Flag

    aka - Amid suggestions that the Fed will be going easier on interest rate increases (a supposed negative for GNW), and overall negative sentiment on financials in general, we're on the rise. Pull up a one-month chart. I think there's movement behind the scenes here regarding a reorg or something of that nature. Just a hunch.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • What it is ain't exactly clear.

    My sense is that we're on the brink of hearing some major change within the company. Nothing scientific or factual ... just a sense that we have institutions and/or hedgies reconsidering a place at the table.

    Staying tuned,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Average down

    by btugod Feb 18, 2016 11:42 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Feb 18, 2016 12:10 PM Flag

    And on top of that they fail minimal listing requirements for the NYSE ...

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