Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Peabody Energy Corp. Message Board

joeschmo_4 321 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Sep 13, 2006
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    what amazes me is...

    by paliuchi Mar 27, 2015 11:19 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 27, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    fin - while politics is necessarily a part of the investing equation, it isn't all of it. Smart investors can capitalize regardless of whom's in there. As Bob Dylan said, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.

    Case in point - what happened to the post-November 2014 election exuberance? Did it help BTU? Not meaningfully.

    Joe

  • Reply to

    Why BTU IS Falling

    by winomaster Mar 27, 2015 11:35 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 27, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    dstone - I doubt NG prices are being held down. There is nothing that XOM, APA, PXD and other management teams would want to see more than higher NG pricing. We have a gloat of NG supplies, we can't burn it off quickly enough to affect current and future pricing ... I agree with you that sometime the NG oversupply will end ... question is when ... and the markets are saying (unfortunately for coal) no time soon ...

    Joe

  • Reply to

    sick

    by darrellkwerth Mar 27, 2015 11:29 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 27, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    dstone - excellent points - and I agree with all of them. We still have coal oversupply. No one is making money. There needs to be significant supply taken out of the market, not just BK's - real reduction. That would bolster coal prices and subsequent share prices ....

    Joe

  • Reply to

    Why BTU IS Falling

    by winomaster Mar 27, 2015 11:35 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 27, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    dstone - if and when NG supplies implode - the yes coal will come back to prominence. But there's no evidence of that happening yet - and institutions which have studied this to death are voting with their portfolios - there currently are few if any reasons to buy coal.

    Joe

  • Reply to

    sick

    by darrellkwerth Mar 27, 2015 11:29 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 27, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    dstone - You are right - solar, wind, hydro are are fringe power producers compared to coal at this point. But look at the historical trend. Which is gaining? Which is losing? Which is treated more favorably in the eyes of ordinary citizens, regulators, energy use planners? Which is getting the attention, press ... it's almost a sociological issue if you think about it. And NG - the plants are cheap to build, the energy is relatively clean, and the source seems to be abundant ....

    Joe

  • Reply to

    Why BTU IS Falling

    by winomaster Mar 27, 2015 11:35 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 27, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Not only that - he FORCED the NG industry to dig all these wells and drop NG prices to rock bottom...

  • Reply to

    sick

    by darrellkwerth Mar 27, 2015 11:29 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 27, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    dstone- all correct about SUNE - but it is a company focused on the future - solar energy is growing, costs are coming down, the technology is improving, it is clean, it is a 21st century industry. Digging and burning coal? More like the 1870's.

    Joe

  • Reply to

    6.60 to 5.25

    by paliuchi Mar 27, 2015 10:29 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 27, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    When I stopped looking at the share price and instead looked at the fundamentals, it became clear that BTU was a stock in trouble. And all the political BS on this board - if only you would examine such trivial matters as earnings, cash flow, balance sheet, dividend policy, competitor status, dollar strength. But NOOOOO. You'd rather blather on about Obama and Democrats and Global Cooling. Pathetic.

    Joe

  • I would say the verdict increasingly seems to be ... YES!

    Cheers to fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 27, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    Very impressive.
    Click!
    You're on ignore.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Mgmt is happy milking this company

    by arman12321232 Mar 25, 2015 3:50 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 26, 2015 9:03 PM Flag

    booker - I keep thinking - where are all the corporate raider-type gadfly's? Wouldn't this be prime for Icahn or someone like him to sweep in, buy a controlling interest and then sell the pieces to better management teams?

    Joe

  • Reply to

    Why the secondary now?

    by meliorist_man Mar 26, 2015 8:35 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 26, 2015 8:59 PM Flag

    If it had been a day or two sooner the secondary would probably have been priced in the $8s. Short-term, yea it's a bummer. Long term, just a speed bump.

    Someday Stan may talk about this in a Forbes or Fortune article.

    Onward and Upward,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 26, 2015 8:50 PM Flag

    Optionsguy - Smart investors know that they cannot succeed on every trade - congrats to you for your success up to this point and I'm sure you'll do better in the future. Humility in investing is an underrated character trait.

    As for me, I'm watching this, but as a fundamental, primarily value investor there still is no compelling reason to buy any coal stock, ETF, whatever unless and until we see significant industry consolidation, supplies are meaningfully reined in and NG pricing moves higher. Even a company as well run as BTU can't make money in this environment - it's not even in sight at this point, and IMO there's every likelihood the shares will move lower still.

    Joe

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 26, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    Oh, first it was me, then it's somebody else who, according to you, "has alot to learn." Well, pardon us jay! Most of us on here are investors. We are building wealth. You, on the other hand, are expert at belittling everyone else and sweating out every nickel. So be it!

    By the way, it's not "secondary's". It's "secondaries".

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nvax is dead, read the prospectus

    by wildislife Mar 26, 2015 1:43 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 26, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    I heard

    Paul is Dead.
    God is Dead.
    Disco is Dead.

    And now NVAX is Dead.

    None of them is true .... except maybe Disco, thank goodness.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Prospectus Page S-11

    by wildislife Mar 26, 2015 2:03 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 26, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    Don't you realize this is BOILERPLATE disclaimer in many prospectus's ? The lawyers insist on this language.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 by joeschmo_4 Mar 26, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    ... we're going to turn on our computers to see LL bolt up 10% on strong institutional buying. What we're seeing now is hedge fund games. A highly disconnected share price and share value. But that won't last. IMO we're back to $40+ within 3 months.

    Cheers to fellow Longs for a happy 2015!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The investment opportunity as I see it here is this: Buy a modest holding of LL at these distressed levels, when all manner of talking heads and advice-givers are yelling to run for the hills ... and WAIT.

    Sales are recovering ... housing and remodeling sectors remain reasonably strong ... the company is cooperating fully with the federal agency involved in the testing ... IGNORE CNBC and their loud mouth critiques .... take a position you can afford to HOLD for 6+ months and you'll have a very Merry Christmas.

    I added this morning.

    Cheers to fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    NVAX

    by jay_scott27 Mar 26, 2015 8:38 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 26, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    jay - lengthen your time frame from two days to six+ months and you'll likely see things a whole lot differently. That's investing. You're speculating. BIG difference.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Email to IR

    by gooduntilclose Mar 26, 2015 8:31 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Mar 26, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    When you need funding there's one of three ways to accomplish it. You either (1) sell equity (2) sell debt or (3) enter into a partnership with another firm. Management has decided option 1 is the best way to do this and they've chosen to deal with the best and most well-connected investment firms. That's the reality. If you choose to disagree, you can sell your shares.

    As for me, I added yesterday and anticipate a strong return from current levels in 2015 and beyond.

    Cheers!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

BTU
5.19-0.10(-1.89%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT