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Peabody Energy Corporation Message Board

joeschmo_4 413 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2015 4:23 PM Member since: Sep 13, 2006
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  • Reply to

    panic

    by vonerick1980 Aug 5, 2015 10:04 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 5, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    vonerick - It's not about earnings, it's about how the company is being mismanaged.

    Joe

  • Reply to

    looks like

    by jarhead19881992 Aug 5, 2015 8:53 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 5, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    I think quality of management is main issue here - really I do. The Street will continue to punish incompetency.

    Joe

  • Reply to

    Stock will open tomorrow at new lows.

    by edblue1003 Aug 4, 2015 5:41 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 4, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    You exited wisely ed, congratulations. I think our rock bottom interest rates, which nearly everyone expected to be higher now compared to this time last year, have made their situation worse.

    Congrats too to those selling covered calls recently. You're making out well.

    Joe

  • Reply to

    You can just sense the dynamism here ...

    by joeschmo_4 Aug 4, 2015 5:31 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 4, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    I don't think I've ever seen a greater case of the whole equaling less than the sum of its parts, and this has gone on for years. Blame interest rates, blame LTC mis-pricing, blame the housing crisis ... what is with THIS company that other major insurance companies seemingly know how to deal with?

    Next up ... getting booted from the S&P 500 ... where at last count they were 4 or 5 notches up from the bottom.

    Joe

  • "We are encouraged with our second quarter results in the Global Mortgage Insurance Division and remain focused on initiatives aimed at strengthening and improving U.S. Life Insurance Division results," said Tom McInerney, President and CEO. "We are making steady progress on our strategy to strengthen and simplify our businesses and increase financial flexibility as evidenced by the two sale transactions we announced recently in addition to the significant progress made towards complying with PMIERs."

    Elmer Fudd anybody?

    Cheers to fellow Long-Suffering Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Coals buggest problem is -

    by pobres Aug 4, 2015 1:23 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 4, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Pobres - You are right in saying cheap NG is a major problem for coal. But those utilities that are able to switch easily to NG already have. If more switching is to occur, more plants would need to be built. Therefore it only figures that coal demand ought to be more stable now than say, 2 years ago.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 4, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    Robert - Expand your time frame from 10 minutes to 3 months and you'll feel less puzzled.

    Cheers!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by historyrepeats11876 Jul 28, 2015 1:57 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 3, 2015 11:14 PM Flag

    Thanks cenergy - Great to hear from you as well!

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by historyrepeats11876 Jul 28, 2015 1:57 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 3, 2015 11:13 PM Flag

    Ford - Thanks for your kind remarks and I've always learned from you as well. Maybe not easily on my behalf but I like and need opposing views from time to time.

    What changed my mind about Peabody was principally what I stated in last Saturday's post. After listening to the CC, positive comments from the CFO (although some may state she had little choice). several recent competitor BK's and more importantly coal supply being taken OFF the market, BTU's comfortable liquidity (about 2 years), all these factors suggest to me that potential or current shareholders have a reasonable chance of coming out ahead if they bite the bullet and take a modest position now. While I may be wrong, I really do think they will avoid BK.

    What did you think of the CC?

    Cheers to you and fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by historyrepeats11876 Jul 28, 2015 1:57 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 3, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    Slight correction: SNV split 1:7 May, 2014.

    If BTU RS's, that may enable them to eventually raise more equity, reduce debt, further strengthen the company and ensure a robust recovery when coal prices recover from basement levels they're at now...

    As a 2-3% holding in one's portfolio, I see great promise here.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by historyrepeats11876 Jul 28, 2015 1:57 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 3, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    Picker-Check out SNV, a SE Regional bank ... RS 1:10 a few years back and is doing fine. Granted they may be the exception, but not all RS's are tragedies waiting to happen.

    BTU will weather this crisis and emerge the strongest in an embattled sector. As a speculative portion of one's portfolio I continue to see much progress.

    And what of today's shouting on Yahoo about sub-$1? Well you saw what happened.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    December Puts

    by rpschom Aug 3, 2015 3:19 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 3, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    For short term operators betting on a negative reaction to quarterly reports in recent years has worked out wonderfully for them. Can't say that I blame them.

    Joe

  • Reply to

    So Much for the Steady Recovery

    by pkg_long Aug 3, 2015 1:41 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 3, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    IMO crude oil prices are affecting TRN as they have for the past 6-9 months, as The Street is obsessed with thinking all they do is manufacture tank cars. Ridiculous. But then again few on here have the power to sway.

    Just holding the course, LONG,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughtful Longs

    by joeschmo_4 Aug 1, 2015 12:41 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 3, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    Fellow Longs -

    Nothing has changed since Friday. The President's formal announcement was long anticipated and is nothing new. The key here is whether or not Peabody will survive and its market cap improve. I say YES to both. This could be a spectacular turnaround from current levels given 6-12 months. Patience.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Current Trading Pattern NVAX.

    by bytetwo Aug 3, 2015 10:51 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Aug 3, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Patience ... not trading ... a company's share price isn't necessarily validation of its future ... there are games being played by traders, as you suggest. Investors will reap the biggest rewards if they ignore the noise and simply wait.

    Holding for the really BIG news,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 by joeschmo_4 Aug 1, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Thoughtful Longs –

    This has been a long, difficult stretch for Peabody but IMO the worst is likely over. There is meaningful supply constriction underway from multiple sources, BTU management continues to manage the situation the best they can with ongoing expense reduction, they have sufficient liquidity for two years, and spot PRB coal prices have even begun to rise lately. Several of their competitors have announced mine closures. Meanwhile sector sentiment continues to be overwhelmingly negative, which in fact is bullish. Shares bought at these levels will likely appreciate significantly over a two year time frame.

    I know we’ve had our differences over the past few months and years on related issues, but the commonality we share is that coal will continue to have a future in the total energy picture, and Peabody Energy will be there. It is not going bankrupt.

    I suggest we all refuse any dealings with the obnoxious pig who has infected the board over the past 4 weeks with nothing but sarcasm, name-calling and 30 posts a day to spew his garbage. He adds nothing to an intelligent exchange of information, and exists only to taunt.

    Cheers to you and fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    S&P Capital

    by vonerick1980 Jul 31, 2015 10:59 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 31, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    Great summation RP ... You've mentioned all the major areas of concern, particularly management credibility. Any more smoke and mirrors / stay the course we're working on it / similar vacuous promises from McInerney & crew and we'll gap down for sure. GNW investors are long overdue for some good news.

    Cheers to you and fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 31, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    PLEASE guys don't sweat the short term. And that's what you seem to be doing. NVAX didn't get to this stage of their development overnight ... so what about those issues you mention ... does that change the status of our groundbreaking platform? Have a little confidence ... and enjoy your weekend!

    Cheers,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 31, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    Ark - Monte is just suggesting we've had a good week, with good recent news, and better news ahead. We can enjoy the weekend anticipating more positive results for shareholders in the not too distant future. That's all...

    Cheers!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 30, 2015 6:34 PM Flag

    There's gotta be a joke in there somewhere ...

    :-)

    Joe

BTU
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