Well said James .... My take is that yes, coal will still be necessary for the world economy, and yet so long as there is abundant supply (despite actual BK's or potential BK's) and slack demand while the major miners are operating in the red while servicing considerable debt, there is no reason to think this won't go lower. There are no positive earnings forecast for BTU for the foreseeable future.
Yes, shorting has been easy here. I do not nor have I ever shorted any stock. But eventually I came to the realization that bruising my portfolio over unrealistic scenarios wasn't worth the losses.
A strengthening dollar may likely even add more pain for BTU.
Monitoring with interest - not buying (yet),
Although some Wall Street analysts still believe in the company's core business, overall sentiments are very pessimistic at the moment. The negative publicity surrounding Lumber Liquidators shows few signs of abating anytime soon and will likely persist over the foreseeable future. The company faces multiple battle fronts against several government agencies, in addition to consumer class-action lawsuits. The suddenness of this high-profile resignation has undoubtedly made things much worse.
As its brand continues to become damaged, the company will likely see an additional hit to its top and bottom lines. However, it is too early to estimate the final impact from this latest development. Although bargain hunters may be tempted to trade this dip, high levels of uncertainty make this an extremely risky gamble, at this juncture.
Thanks miskeen - What I'm really waiting for is the signal, whatever that turns out to be, for institutions to begin buying this again. Earnings and prospects forward clearly suggest we're undervalued. When the buying resumes, I want to be owning the stock, as I do now, and not chasing it.
Cheers to you and fellow Longs,
Sentiment: Strong Buy
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of SunEdison (SUNE - Get Report) are rallying 4.48% to $30.77 in Friday's afternoon trading session after the solar project developer sealed a deal with the electricity supply company Southern California Edison to install 33 megawatts of rooftop solar.
"We are very pleased to be working with Southern California Edison to modernize and upgrade the utility grid," SunEdison's managing director Sam Youneszadeh said.
"As this project demonstrates, solar systems can be sized and strategically located to provide maximum benefit to both the utility grid and California homeowners and businesses," he added.
You think the California fruit hippie yuppie greenie's are selling stock in BTU? No, it's the conservative, blockhead Wall Street institutions that are. Ones who likely think like you. And you're willing to hold until it goes under? Investing purely on political and/or social ideology while ignoring business and sector fundamentals?
Don't underestimate the power of great management - respected management - and right now LL cannot say that. No permanent CEO, no permanent CFO, bad press, litigation risk, probably no earnings (again) this quarter.
I'm outta here guys. Too much risk. I took a bath on this one but would rather own up now and move on to more promising stocks than to hold my breath each morning waiting for more bad news.
If it turns around (and I hope it does) there will be a safer time to buy in the future.
Warren Buffett has also said that strong, experienced, intelligent management is necessary for a company to succeed. You can forget TA here. That won't work in this case. It's a matter of a company besieged on many sides with virtually NO management - except for the former subcontractor who has the polish and skills of anyone BUT a CEO.
If 1800 miners losing their jobs effectively takes actual supply off the market then that's good for the industry. Tough for the workers but it might be good for BTU.
I'm an optimist like you but you must remember all the GOOD news is baked into the current SP as well.
If "worse" news you mean poor near-term revenues then yes you're probably right. But in terms of litigation I still think the company is in the right when it comes to the method of safety testing - their product WAS compliant.
As a tribute to Tilson when he finally goes he should be preserved in formaldehyde!
The first I heard of Lynch's departure was on the 7AM CBS Radio news. The public is getting fed negative messages. Management needs to counter that, strongly and effectively. And since few read newspapers anymore anyway - use the net as well (I'm showing my age!).