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Diamond Foods, Inc. Message Board

joeschmo_4 1384 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 1, 2015 12:41 PM Member since: Sep 13, 2006
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  • joeschmo_4 by joeschmo_4 Aug 1, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Thoughtful Longs –

    This has been a long, difficult stretch for Peabody but IMO the worst is likely over. There is meaningful supply constriction underway from multiple sources, BTU management continues to manage the situation the best they can with ongoing expense reduction, they have sufficient liquidity for two years, and spot PRB coal prices have even begun to rise lately. Several of their competitors have announced mine closures. Meanwhile sector sentiment continues to be overwhelmingly negative, which in fact is bullish. Shares bought at these levels will likely appreciate significantly over a two year time frame.

    I know we’ve had our differences over the past few months and years on related issues, but the commonality we share is that coal will continue to have a future in the total energy picture, and Peabody Energy will be there. It is not going bankrupt.

    I suggest we all refuse any dealings with the obnoxious pig who has infected the board over the past 4 weeks with nothing but sarcasm, name-calling and 30 posts a day to spew his garbage. He adds nothing to an intelligent exchange of information, and exists only to taunt.

    Cheers to you and fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    S&P Capital

    by vonerick1980 Jul 31, 2015 10:59 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 31, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    Great summation RP ... You've mentioned all the major areas of concern, particularly management credibility. Any more smoke and mirrors / stay the course we're working on it / similar vacuous promises from McInerney & crew and we'll gap down for sure. GNW investors are long overdue for some good news.

    Cheers to you and fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Hold

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 31, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    PLEASE guys don't sweat the short term. And that's what you seem to be doing. NVAX didn't get to this stage of their development overnight ... so what about those issues you mention ... does that change the status of our groundbreaking platform? Have a little confidence ... and enjoy your weekend!

    Cheers,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 31, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    Ark - Monte is just suggesting we've had a good week, with good recent news, and better news ahead. We can enjoy the weekend anticipating more positive results for shareholders in the not too distant future. That's all...

    Cheers!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 30, 2015 6:34 PM Flag

    There's gotta be a joke in there somewhere ...

    :-)

    Joe

  • joeschmo_4 by joeschmo_4 Jul 30, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    I always did like him. Favorite phrase was, "I know NOTHING!"

    Cheers to fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Risk on this investment decreasing by the day...

    by goducks542 Jul 30, 2015 1:12 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 30, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    Rezoom - I swear the sun must shine on you 24 hours a day ...

    Cheers!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Paying down debt vs paying dividend.

    by arman12321232 Jul 30, 2015 1:54 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 30, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Arman - When you consider the hierarchy of GNW management concerns in recent years, shareholders have perennially been near the bottom. IMO we need some real disruption if shareholders ever hope to recoup significant value, relative to book. A buyout of the whole firm, going private, something major.

    Joe

  • Someday ... someday ...

    It wouldn't surprise me to see this touch the $6's near term as there really are so few reasons to get excited about the stock. Yes, I know the POTENTIAL ... been there ... said that ... and yet we're the better part of being to 2016 and still no dividend ... same ole same ole.

    Oh well.

    Cheers to fellow graying Longs,
    Joe

  • joeschmo_4 by joeschmo_4 Jul 30, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    I listened to the CC, thought about what they said and considered my own view and others as well, and came away with several observations:

    First of all, Peabody WILL be a survivor. They have more than enough liquidity to get them through the next two years, so a BK filing in the near future is highly unlikely. I am impressed with their new CFO. Meaningful cost reductions are happening.

    Secondly, significant supply IS being taken out of coal markets internationally, not only by BTU but by their national and international competitors. That is a great sign and news I wanted to hear.

    Third, as per Barrons and others, the pace of coal-to-gas fuel switching by power generators has likely diminished, as structurally there is just so much that can be converted short term. The base load of power being produced by coal will likely not be reduced by the same rate it has been in the previous 2-3 years. It has likely stabilized in the 30%-35% zone.

    In terms of overreach by the EPA, I see favorable times ahead for the industry.

    In all, I'm a bull on these shares. For a modest holding and a 2+ year time frame they make sense.

    Thoughtful replies appreciated,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 30, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Guaranteed!

    :-)

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    100% GUARANTEED

    by wily.coyote Jul 29, 2015 10:40 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 29, 2015 9:49 PM Flag

    Classic Stooges ... Slowly I turn ... Step by step ... Inch by inch ... and then I .... #&*%$%@

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Railcar order statistics

    by puzzled48 Jul 29, 2015 3:50 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 29, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    Well said Gomer. I used to work for ARII and know a little something about the rail car mfg and leasing business. Not to be overlooked is TRN's substantial leasing division. Leasing rail cars is a cash cow business. It reduces cyclicality and serves to cushion lean times as they may occur for rail car manufacture. And yes I heard those CC remarks too - they're getting substantial orders for a wide range of specialty cars. Then there's rail car maintenance and upgrading - another facet of TRN's business.

    For shares to be trading this cheaply must be related to unresolved litigation. Buying under $30 makes a huge amount of sense to me if one's investment time frame is longer than 6 months. If we could only put the guard rail distraction behind us ...

    Cheers to you and fellow Longs,
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What's up today?

    by alfamagnate Jul 29, 2015 11:19 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 29, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    WSJ had an article about biotech valuations this morning ... how some new companies are valued $1B without approved drugs yet. Not to worry. This is trading noise. We know what we own.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the silence on CNBC about MU news

    by extp4096 Jul 29, 2015 7:11 AM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 29, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    Hey guys - forget the Mickey Mouse reporting on CNBC. The tutes know what's going on here, THEY control the share price, relax and if you NEED to watch cable at least turn off the sound. You'll feel better, lower blood pressure, etc.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bounce?

    by greenhornet4102 Jul 28, 2015 1:23 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 28, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    "Bull" History? Just because I want to see institutional validation of what others have hoped and wished and pined for all these months? Sorry, I like numbers and given the risk here I like validation.

    Cheers!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bounce?

    by greenhornet4102 Jul 28, 2015 1:23 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 28, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    Thanks Stone - I'll give a listen ... The tape confirms your view ...

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by historyrepeats11876 Jul 28, 2015 1:57 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 28, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    History - you may be right - meanwhile we have an amazing run going on today ... Wow!

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reverse Split

    by historyrepeats11876 Jul 28, 2015 1:57 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 28, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    I would go with management, History. A higher share price gives them more credence to institutional investors and may make it easier for future secondaries as they stabilize the company. And YES secondaries CAN be helpful, positive and useful for shareholders (I know some on here will go ballistic when I say this) if they provide more strength to the overall firm, giving them an opportunity to grow while possibly reducing debt.

    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bounce?

    by greenhornet4102 Jul 28, 2015 1:23 PM
    joeschmo_4 joeschmo_4 Jul 28, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    If shares can be up 5% on the kind of news we read this morning then I say the WORST IS OVER. I took a very modest position this morning - the first one I've had in BTU in a very long time.

    My take is that they have the liquidity to outlast this downturn. And it's not just me saying it - institutions have said as much this morning with their purchases.

    Cheers to fellow Longs!
    Joe

    Sentiment: Buy

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