JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Message Board

Lots of short shares are hedged, eg, against the box or options, +932,906 shares insiders, lock in profits without reportable sale/tax, etc.
Insider Summary
Type Last 12 Mo.
Number of Insider Trades 45
Number of Open Market Buys
View: All Purchases 19
Number of Sells 26
Net Activity 932,906
Total Shares Traded: 1,137,208
Number of Shares Bought: 1,035,057
Number of Shares Sold: 102,151

DAL COLLUSIOIN/PRICE FIXING RISKS GOVERNMENT PENALITIES?:
Delta, American match United on change-fee hike
Delta, American Airlines match United, US Airways in boosting US ticket change fee to $200
ATLANTA (AP) -- Delta Air Lines Inc. and American Airlines have matched United's increase in the fee for changing a domestic-flight reservation to $200 from $150.
With US Airways Group Inc. having matched the increase last week, all four of the so-called legacy airlines have raised the cost of changing a ticket.
United Continental Holdings Inc. has said that it incurs costs when a customer changes a reservation and the higher fee compensates for the cost.
Delta spokesman Anthony Black said Thursday that his airline "closely monitors competitive conditions and periodically reviews its pricing of fees. After careful consideration, Delta increased its change fees to remain competitive in the marketplace."
Matt Miller, a spokesman for AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, noted that American sells fares called "Choice Essential" and "Choice Plus" that allow customers to change reservations at no extra cost. The tickets cost more than a base economy fare, however.
Major U.S. airlines have increased revenue from extra fees in recent years, saying that customers should pay extra for extra services.

Warren Buffett was aware of competitive advantage analysis in 1989 when he first opened a position in US Airways' preferred So why did Buffett do it?
In the Essays of Warren Buffett, the Oracle says "he was not pushed into the (US Airways) investment nor misled by anyone when making it (page 143)."
Warren Buffett even said: "In an unregulated commodity business, a company must lower its cost to competitive levels or face extinction. This principle should have been obvious to your Chairman, but I missed it (page 144)."
The amazing part of this story is that the Oracle of Omaha spent $358 million in US Airways' preferred stock in 1989, only to see the company defer its dividend for years, and for Berkshire to write it down to $89.5 million at year-end in 1994. Warren Buffett even declined to stand for reelection to US Airways board. All seemed lost.
Just completely by chance however, in the second half of 1996, US Airways started to turn a profit and pay preferred dividends - not because of any improvement in its competitive stance, but because of a cyclical upturn and industry tailwind. Buffett fully recouped the value of his preferred investment and even received extra preferred dividends due to stipulations agreed upon in the event of a deferral of them (which had occurred). US Airways common stock jumped from $4 to over $70. And then, as the preferred stock was called for redemption, Buffett made a killing thanks to conversion rights.
Average investors are never this lucky. Still, Buffett made a mistake, but there is a degree of luck to every investment, & Buffett may not have put competitive advantage analysis first in the late 1990s (US Airways). If he did, there is no way an airline would ever fall on his radar. So the one thing that you never knew about Buffett is not his foray into the airline business. Most people know this. But, instead, it's what such a foray really means about his style and returns from inception through the late 1990s -- when his fantastic returns were generated.

Reason shorts are shorting is value trap since Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2014)1: is 5.37;
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: is 0.24; Price/Sales (ttm): only 0.38 ; etc. are not typical of a healthy industry?
Some of Warren Buffett’s most amusing quotations have all been on the subject of airlines:
“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.”
“As of 1992, in fact—though the picture would have improved since then—the money that had been made since the dawn of aviation by all of this country’s airline companies was zero. Absolutely zero.”
The airline industry had, at least up to 1990, lost more money than it earned for equity investors. Buffett's remarks underline that the airline industry has an unenviable relationship between risk and return. The reasons are straightforward: airlines have high fixed costs, and when demand falls below break even, it is difficult to lower those costs by selling surplus aeroplanes because of the low demand. High fixed costs are characteristic of several industries but the airline industry is more prone to overcapacity because its air of glamour attracts more capital than justified by pure spreadsheet-based calculations.

Just my opinion, not investment advice.

DAL Book Value Per Share (mrq): -$2.52
Analysts 2013 eps avg estimate is $2.62
A year to maybe break even?

Just my opinion, not investment advice.

No need to hurry buying SUTR at current run-up price cuz china steel demand will be flat under Li Keqiang, set to become China’s next premier, so just wait & buy after SUTR settles back down to long-term normal range:
BaoSteel forecasts moderate increase in China steel demand
06 Mar 2013

General Manager He Wenbo said that Baosteel Group Corp., the parent of China’s biggest listed steelmaker, expects a moderate increase in steel demand this year.

Mr He Wenbo said that “The steel industry hit a trough last year. This year would be better, although we don’t expect a large increase in demand.”

Premier Wen Jiabao maintained an economic growth target of 7.5% for this year as he delivered his final annual work report to the legislature. Li Keqiang, set to become China’s next premier, highlighted plans in his first policy statement in November to build rail, road and sewage systems to support an urban population that exceeded rural residents for the first time in 2011.

Demand may be hurt after China’s cabinet on March 1 introduced measures to tame home prices, including a 20% tax on individuals selling properties, but if you look over a long term, the urbanization process will support steel demand positively.

He said that Shanghai based Baosteel Group may earn more than CNY 10 billion (USD 1.6 billion) in profit this year, without specifying if the number is before or after tax. The company won’t add new capacity in Shanghai and is moving some plants out of the city to comply with environmental norms.
Blomberg

JMHO, not investment advice

FUTURE estimates depend on new 500,000 metric tons high precision cold-rolled steel production line & given Murphy's law in China there's no assurance it will ever pay out SUTR risky investments.

The new high precision cold-rolled steel production line with a designed annual capacity of 500,000 metric tons (MT) is expected to start trial operations in the first half of calendar year 2013. Once operational, we expect this new line will increase our cold-rolled steel capacity to 750,000 MT. Cold-rolled steel products are used as raw materials to manufacture hot-dip galvanized and pre-painted galvanized steel products, for which we have a capacity of 700,000 MT and 200,000 MT, respectively.
We are making progress on our recently established electronic commerce B2B platform, a complementary business to our existing capital intensive and asset heavy steel processing business. We believe that this platform has significant upside potential. We are currently using it to promote and sell our own products to existing customers. Additionally, we plan to introduce this platform to other companies in the heavy industry to promote and sell their products.
We recently started commercial production of galvolume steel plates. Derived from hot-dip aluminum galvanization and hot-dip zinc galvanization technology, our galvolume steel plates possess exceptional anti-corrosion, anti-oxidation and electric-chemical properties, which make it less prone to rust and corrosion. As a result, this product can be used in a variety of industries such as construction, household appliances, automobiles, machinery and shipping.
Ms. Chen concluded, "We have well positioned our Company to take advantage of additional opportunities arising from China's expected economic recovery. Sutor's business is strong and competitive, and should continue to profitably grow in fiscal 2013."

?DO NOT HURRY TO BUY SUTR CUZ:
China's steel industry in slow recovery

In the fourth quarter of 2012, CE Steel Industry Prosperity Index was 96.5, which was generally level with the previous quarter; CE Steel Industry Warning Index was 63.3, dropped by 3.4 points compared with the previous quarter, and it was still in a relatively cold state.

Look back to the 2012, the iron and steel industry prosperity showed a constant decline trend. On one hand, it was affected by the slowdown growth rate of domestic investment, the slack rebound in the demand for steel of the downstream industries; on the other hand, it was constrained by the serious surplus capacity of the iron and steel industry, and it was also related to the continued destocking process of the iron and steel industry. The macroeconomic rebound trend in the fourth quarter of 2012 and even in 2013 is conducive to the improvement of the operation of the steel industry, but the recovery of the prosperity may be a relatively long process.

Prosperity Index lays the foundation and it will go steady

In the fourth quarter of 2012, CE steel industry prosperity index was 96.5 (the growth rate of 2003 = 100), which was generally level with the previous quarter; the declining trend o

JMHO, not investment advice