So what would you rather take your chances with today, A stock of Counterfeit bills or the equal $ value in Income Realty stock? And, you were forced to hold one or the other for the next 3 to 6 months while Bernanke and Co. try to figure out where or not they will Step on the QE Brake?
uHmmmm, Today, I think I would much rather be in cash and Tide Dergent on sale at Walmart, than I would in this God Forbidden REIT. Glad to hear you still have some of your principal left, but you just watched 2 days worth of 2 years worth of dividends go right down the circular file.... Whhhhoooosshhhhh! Sorry about that. Sincerely, sorry for your lowered principal by 11% in 2 days. That never feels good, does it? But, since you are rejoicing, why not another 11% lower to make it an even 22% Kaboom? Chances are you inherited this position from you rich husband Rich anyways so sleep well. You still have a cushion of $49 big ones to sleep on, right? At least for today. Should the Fed be walking on QE, I sure would rethink this concept if I was everyone in this stock.
STILL - ) - )- ) - )- ) - ) ******* K-A-B-O-O-M !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When you have long lines and STILL YOU CAN'T IMPROVE FLAT SAME STORE SALES, YOU'RE A MESS! Do you understand this concept? Long lines DO NOT equal longer profits or earnings or earnings growth or earnings growth acceleration. LONG LINES AT CMG AND STILL THEY HAVE TO RAISE PRICES JUST TO MEET FLAT SAME STORE SALES FORCAST FROM CMG'S CEO AND CFO? NOT THE KIND OF BACKDROP FOR A 41 P/E STOCK ONLY GROWING 9 TO 16% IN THE HIGHLY CONCENTRATED RESTAURANT INDUSTRY. 16% EARNINGS GROWTH FOR 2014 WILL BE DOWN FROM 29.4% JUST 2 YEARS PRIOR IN 2011/2012. OH, BY THE WAY, If you want an interesting IPO coming out, it's NOODLES & CO., LEAD BY ORIGINAL CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL'S CEO. IT GOES PUBLIC THIS SUMMER. THIS IS WHERE THE REAL GROWTH IS AND WORTH 30 TO 40 X EARNINGS AS IT'S GROWING 30 TO 50%
Everything with a rate is going up...insurance, mortgages, etc... this can't be a good thing for anything reit?
BREAKING DOWN CMG'S VALUE BASED ON CURRENT FUNDAMENTALS: EARNING FR THIS YEAR ARE SLATED TO BE 10.64 VS 8.75 (2013) AND FOR 2014 THEY ARE SLATED TO BE 12.75 VS 10.64 (2013) .To arrive at valuation first we need to take this year's growth vs last year's growth to see if we are accelerating or decelerating in their growth. CMG's 2013 earnings growth from 2012 to 2013 (year ending 12/13) will be approximately 21.6% if their guidance holds up to be accurate. For 2014 CMG's earnings grwoth from 2013 to 2014 (year ending 12/14) will be approximately 19.8% .Now when we go back to the period prior to this one, and look at 2012's year ending earnings of 8.75 was an increase of 29.3%.over it's 2011 year ending results of 6.76. So now we have a 3 year period to use in this breakdown of actual and trending earnings growth...
2012 vs 2011 Earnings Growth: 29.3%
2013 vs 2012 Earnings Growth: 21.6%
2014 vs 2013 Earnings Growth (EST): 19.8%
It's obvious, Chipotle Mexican Grill is experiencing a "DECELERATION" IN IT'S EARNINGS GROWTH DURING THIS 3-YEAR PERIOD. And, this is what Wall Street used to determine what Wall Streeters will pay for CMG shares. With a Deceleration in both earnings growth and same store sales growth, which I will breakdown in a separate message on this CMG board in the days to come, what is a fair P/E to attach to these shares? IT'S NO LONGER A EARNINGS "ACCELERATION" STORY SO PAYING UP FOR SOMETHING THAT IS SEEING WEAKNESS IN IT'S EARNINGS MOMENTUM, IS NOT SOMETHING I WOULD RECOMMEND. Instead, look to where the earning's growth and same store sales growth will go from hear. And, for this year, CMG has already WARNED THAT THEY WILL ONLY SEE FLAT TO UP 1 OR 2% AT BEST IN SAME STORE SALES.THIS IS DOWN FROM THEIR EARLY YEARS OF GROWTH WHERE THEY WERE CHURNING 7.5 TO 12% SAME STORE SALES GROWTH. WITH THIS AND THE ABOVE IN MIND I GIVE CMG THE FOLLOWING PRICE TARGET BASED ON 2013 TO 2014 PERIOD...CMG PRICE TARGET: $169 (15.8% GRWTH, W/P/E 15.8)
Cmg's fundamentals and stock price are one and the same ... Like a cat on a tin roof hanging by it's claws with all of us watching and praying that someone does something to save it from the 41st floor (ie- 41 p/e).
What best describes the reit mice and more specifically income realty traders/investors reaction to uncle ben's spiking interest rate jargon? kaboom!
REITS GO KABOOM!!!! K-A-B-O-O-M!!!!
Still, one insider shows a little support by picking up some shares, not even alot of shares, just cost averaging down in his position ... and, everyone jumps on this stock like sheep in heat? Sounds like a good "Tail" to me. Baaaah BaaaaH!!!!
I would say that "fighting the fed" as the term goes on Wall Street, went out the door about 20 to 30% ago in this REIT and in stocks as a whole. AT THIS POINT IN TIME THERE IS 20% AT A MINIMUM, OVER-EXTENDED JAPAN QE-FLUFF in the United States stock indices. As we will soon learn as the fluff and excesses are bled out of the markets. Whether we do this starting Monday or we wait until August. If we keep rocketing higher from this level, just add the additional gains to the above numbers and then it's going to be a 40 to 70% Crash instead of a 20% correction. IT'S THE FED'S AND OBAMA'S CHOICE, RIGHT? I will be gaining either way. I'm never long without being short something else. But I'm are rare bird in the U.S. Most here are hopped up on QE crack and are leveraged with seconds on their mortgages and brokerage margin w/rates of 20%+. Soon, this too with be learned the hard way.
This is one tough as nails bond fund folks. i would slowly trickle w/laddering funds into this bond fund and then enjoy a 50 x bank rate return as it performs like the rock star who runs this fine tuned bond buying and hedging machine!!!
I guess it's there money right ... the rich and stupid have one thing in common, they know how to burn it like nobody else, lol! ; ) .... And, Jim Cramer would say it's "momentum stock like Apple was last Fall, 2012 .... BUY, BUY, BUY!!!! " We know how Apple investors turned out. I can't help but figure that alot of the losing money in Apple found it's way over to the "New Safety Stock" ... INCOME REALTY. Where your money in "O" is as safe as a bank savings account, cd or checking acct. Most think that REITS are even FDIC insured, lol. Should be good popcorn entertainment viewing any day now when they find out what they just bought into. It's not quite as bloody as "Chainsaw Masacre" but there is something special about watching a super rich MF part with his/her greenbacks .... NICE!
Yield destruction on the part of our federal government is the primary reason for REITS getting panic bids from social security recipients, the wealthy, the unemployed and retirees. All of the above are folks in the "needing income due to fed yield destruction" in America. The only problem, it's been take way way WAY beyond "to far", as REITS have been pushed to 2 1/2 to 4 x their earnings growth rate. In the case of "O", the next 2 quarters offer the greatest threat for disappointing earnings as per their prior 3 years reporting in these two quarters. But, aside from these factoids, investors have been led by irresponsible talking heads on the tube that are like robots on reply...over and over, "I LIKE REITS, I LIKE REITS, I LIKE REITS ...." Turn on another tv business show and more.... "I LIKE REITS, I LIKE REITS, I LIKE REITS ...." . So at $55 / share, Income Realty has the next 2 years of capital gains priced into the shares and the price and p/e of a 50 to 70% earnings grower or the best growth stock on the Nasdaq. It's fascinating to watch as I still own a few hundred shares of this rocket, but I would watch for the moment soon where wall street takes the last buyer and turns them into an Income Realty @ $45 owner over night. It's like playing a nasty game of music dates on eHarmony where it's only a matter of dates until you pick up a nasty case of , well you know ... the herps. NASTY STUFF.
Wrong joeytee2002, in april, 2012 sbux traded at $64, today it's 63.55. keeping swinging slugger! oh, any it's down a percent again today. bummer. i'm telling you this is a better short than a safe long. without a doubt. let's chat again in a month or two, ok?
THIS IS A "NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT GOING THERE" ... STOCK AND COMPANY. AMERICA HAS SO MANY OF THESE, DOESN'T IT? 1. SBUX , 2. MCD , 3. CMG , 4, WEN , 5. T, 6. AAPL, 7. BBY, ETC...
I can't believe that peet's coffee shops are always packed and their employees are so much more attentive and so well trained. i challenge anyone to walk into a peet's and order a 1 lb bag of guruda and then do the same at starbucks. peet's employees are lightning fast and will chat with you while they prep your order and you are on your way home in lest than 5 minutes. 10 minutes later in the starbucks store you are still waiting for the employee to check with someone whether they even carry guruda, which they don't, and then they give you a pathetic substitute. i guess mcdonalds is commodity cow heard tender too, but they're stock has just done nothing in the past 1 1/2 years. hmmm, so if starbucks is doing so great and they have so many waiting lines, then why has their stock only "churned" a measly 4 to 5% in the past 14 months? any good answers for that one? ; )
Just a little interesting tidbit...if you would like to check out an interesting comparison, have a look at yahoo finance and enter a symbol of CMG for the CMG stock page to come up. Then click on CMG chart on this page and when it pops up, you can type in a comparison stock to compare performance in CMG to. Type in symbol: "O" for Income Realty, and check out the comparison. IS THIS CRAZY NUTS? I was amazed at what I saw when I did this comparison. O is a REIT and mostly an "Income Generating stock" whereas CMG pays zero dividends and is considered a growth stock. How in the world in today's market does an income stock keep up in performance with a go-go growth stock, right? With markets hitting new highs daily and weekly, how in the world are O buyers thinking that at current dividend of 3.6% , and this is about 1.8% to 2.2% after tax for high income tax payers, that this is an interesting income opportunity when they are putting all of their income at risk, should there be a recession or even a hint of setback in the economy, which is what it's looking likely of right this moment. Neither stock is all that exciting at this time, but O trading in line and practically mirroring CMG over past year is comical and rediculous in my view. But, what about this market and QE stimulus results is normal ; ). Let's see how CMG holds up without the recent Talking Head comments and Silly Price Target raises of $25 dollars like the one from Miller Tabak yesterday. Or, the overly emotional comments out of Motley Fools Fool today. I would believe that tomorrow and into Friday we slowly head South as the longs run for cover, rethinking their story stock investment.