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Weyerhaeuser Co. Message Board

john89930 7 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Apr 30, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Why did I buy over 1.5 million shares of Monitise?

    by ramimd Aug 29, 2014 12:30 PM
    john89930 john89930 12 hours ago Flag

    I am very long MONI but in my opinion it should not be more than 10% of any portfolio. Hopefully, that means you have a $12M portfolio :)

    I am still slightly in the red on my position but added further at 80c on the IBM news so now a 7% position for me. The IBM news in my view totally blows up the short thesis and this is likely just the beginning. Portfolio managers who are lagging the market are now desperately looking for small to mid-cap names with huge catalysts and upside and will flock to this as the good news keeps coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Everyone should email Gil and BJ

    by pipelight Aug 28, 2014 12:03 PM
    john89930 john89930 Aug 28, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Good luck with that one - I don't think they give a damn. Your last paragraph is my biggest fear right now. They raised at $4.10 and now they might ride this to zero with our money. As for their reputations, I think you would be amazed at how many chances people get once they rise to a certain status. I don't invest in lottery tickets though so I need to see tangible evidence that the platform is validated before stroke. Otherwise, I will likely substantially reduce and hedge my position for stroke data. As the expression goes "fool me once...."

  • Reply to

    ATHX - where do we go from here longs?

    by john89930 Aug 25, 2014 10:52 PM
    john89930 john89930 Aug 27, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    Yes, I noticed the large restricted stock and option grants by the board to the CEO last year. I submit that it is FAR different to put your own cash on the table vs free shares....It is just poor form to make comments about the stock price being "undervalued" or "sustainable" and then not step up personally at these levels.

    At any rate, I'm sitting tight for a while to see if they produce any results between now and the stroke data. Hoping for the best at this point.

  • Reply to

    ATHX - where do we go from here longs?

    by john89930 Aug 25, 2014 10:52 PM
    john89930 john89930 Aug 27, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    I am not concerned with the director sale as the options were set to expire. However, that director would not have been allowed to sell if anything material was in the works right now (partnership near signing, Pfizer news, etc). So, a director selling means that the executives could be buying personally also yet they do not. We are coming up to data in 6 months that will either lead to a runaway blockbuster or a complete failure. If I was the CEO and founder since 1995 I would be as levered as humanly possible if I truly believed that the trial would be a success.

    While I understand that UC and stroke are two completely different situations, the market is voting that the failure in UC does indeed somewhat increase the odds of failure in stroke as well (and that seems to be the view of many people on this board with medical backgrounds). I find the complete silence from Gil disconcerting because they almost appear to be unfazed by the huge shareholder losses since April and taking the "all or nothing" lottery ticket mentality. The problem with that is this is shareholder money, not theirs...Management needs to understand that they need to do something before the binary Feb data to validate the platform and somewhat mitigate the total loss scenario for shareholders.

  • john89930 by john89930 Aug 27, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    Is there any doubt that Monitise is going to be a huge winner now. Expanded IBM partnership validates them enormously and it will probably be bought out eventually. LONG AND STRONG MY FRIENDS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • After seeing the recent action even the most hardened bulls must be seriously questioning the outcome for ATHX. I have been long for a year now, riding the move up and selling around 4 upon the offering but then unfortunately buying back in before the UC disaster. The recent quarterly conference call had little in the way of near term catalysts and no new information on the 16 week data and the Pfizer partnership.

    My question is what potential catalysts can lead to a substantial and sustained recovery in the stock short of holding into the binary stroke data early next year? Obviously, good stroke data would send this much higher (my view is a double digit stock price immediately) but another failure would make this a penny stock and a total loss. I fully appreciate the massive long term upside scenarios which is why I have held on.

    I am hoping a few long time holders can chime in and provide some thoughts on the next 6 months and where ATHX could realistically turn this around. I do not believe that the CEO will be able to pump the stock again (and I am concerned that he is not buying more personally after a director just sold), so what could break positively here near term.

  • john89930 john89930 Aug 25, 2014 8:43 PM Flag

    I don't believe the lack of reporting on the 16 week UC data and the status of the partnership means anything. Management was very clear on the call that the data is no different than the 8 week data. At this point it's all about the stroke data in early 2015 and maybe potential developments in Japan.

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