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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

john89930 48 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Apr 30, 2013
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  • john89930 john89930 22 hours ago Flag

    Ask yourself why Dodd, who sold a company for $1.5B previously, would bother with AEZS if he didn't see major potential? It's not like he needs the money at this point...He seems to know the ropes with the FDA quite well and has prepared for a major rollout in January if approved. In the Q2 call he said the 50 reps will get in front of 100% of the targeted endocrinologists twice within the first 6 months. Mind you this is to replace the insulin tolerance test which they don't like to begin with. You harp on the potential dilution to fund a roll-out but upon approval I think this is about as low risk of a roll-out as we get in small biotech.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sand vs Ceramic Proppant

    by john89930 Oct 24, 2014 5:21 PM
    john89930 john89930 Oct 24, 2014 7:08 PM Flag

    Yes I saw that CRR plunged in the past 2 months after they lost a major customer and lowered their sales outlook. I have also seen two consultant market outlook reports published this month on frac proppant that estimate both sand and ceramics will grow 9-11% annually 2014-2018 (varies a bit by report). With sand the barriers to entry seem lower than ceramics.

  • Doing some initial research on the space and hoping that someone with an oil services background can answer what the applications for ceramic are vs. sand and the cost/benefits of each at $80 oil. It seems that ceramic is preferred for deeper wells where crushing is a factor. What percentage of wells fall in this category?

  • john89930 john89930 Oct 13, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    As a shareholder here for over a year I have several serious issues with the CEO. First, he clearly pumped the stock heavily in late 2013-early 2014 and made misleading statements before bagging holders with a big raise at $4.10. Then after the UC failure he completely blew off the outcome and tried to spin it as completely irrelevant to stroke. Second, he has wasted a lot of time running back and forth to Japan for something that is not even proven to work yet and ramping the manufacturing. Third, the CEO and a few other key people are making a GROSS amount of compensation given the current market cap and the lack of any tangible positive results. Finally, the CEO has repeatedly stated how undervalued the stock is yet has not bought a single share in recent months.

    People are selling because Gil now has zero credibility and this stock has been relegated to a pump and dump.

  • Reply to

    Blood on the streets....

    by ramimd Sep 18, 2014 11:07 AM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 18, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    The bottom line is the stock has not acted well for months now and it was easy to overrule my normal loss discipline when I saw major bulls cheerleading and adding all the way down.

    It is obvious whoever emerges as the winners in mobile payments will be great investments but this is a major fundamental blow that even the most die-hard bull has to honestly acknowledge.

  • Reply to

    Blood on the streets....

    by ramimd Sep 18, 2014 11:07 AM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 18, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    There's blood all right. It's my portfolio bleeding to death today with this junk. -2% hit to my portfolio on a spec name. I forced myself to liquidate.

    In retrospect there were many signs this was in big trouble but hindsight is just that....Huge pop on IBM and immediately sold off, no Apple announcement and slid further, very little communication from Monitise to its shareholders while the stock was falling off a cliff and being attacked by shorts. I also learned a painful lesson about putting too much weight on big names like Cooperman/Kass. Without their involvement I would not have invested and certainly it would have been a 2-3% position tops (it was a 7% position unfortunately).

    Anyway, good luck to everyone here but when major negative news like this hits I have to admit that I am wrong and cut my losses. IBM may very well seize this opportunity but hoping for a takeout is not an investment strategy for me.

  • Reply to

    More dilution

    by john89930 Sep 15, 2014 4:56 PM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 15, 2014 9:02 PM Flag

    Thank god this isn't a big position for me but it definitely hurts to lose 25% on any amount of shares. Another tax loss

  • john89930 by john89930 Sep 15, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Nice job. You completely botched the second indication presentation and now you are stuffing us with another round of dilution at the 52 week low on the stock. I am selling my entire position tomorrow. Lesson learned do not invest in sh** management.

  • Reply to

    Something is wrong

    by hld321 Sep 11, 2014 6:07 AM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 11, 2014 9:30 AM Flag

    Already have a big position in this so not adding when the stock is getting smashed and we don't know why. Bear raid or not, someone definitely knows something IMO. I am holding because I firmly believe MONI is right in the middle of a huge wave in payments and will somehow capitalize but I hate being on the other side of hedge funds shorting the stock.

  • Reply to

    Something is wrong

    by hld321 Sep 11, 2014 6:07 AM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 11, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    Something is definitely wrong. MONI is down 5% in London now. Maybe we are looking at more bad news on the guidance? This is beyond no Apple news.

  • Reply to

    Window is closing.....

    by ramimd Sep 8, 2014 3:29 PM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 8, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    Apple connection or not I still believe this stock goes much higher by year end.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Per Today's CC, New Indication Sounds Good

    by bargain_hunter_4 Sep 8, 2014 12:24 PM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 8, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    The company should have given some indication of the potential market size on the call. Even a $200-300M annual sales opportunity would have the stock ripping today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • john89930 john89930 Sep 4, 2014 9:05 PM Flag

    The sellers amazingly haven't let up yet. Who is selling now that didn't sell at 1.80, 1.60 etc? We need a catalyst but the company isn't giving us anything to work with :(

  • Reply to

    Picked up some more shares...

    by ramimd Sep 2, 2014 2:41 PM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 2, 2014 4:21 PM Flag

    I think you are on the mark there. Expanded IBM partnership and any piece of Apple mobile payments and this stock would be far higher than the levels of early March IMO.

  • Reply to

    Picked up some more shares...

    by ramimd Sep 2, 2014 2:41 PM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 2, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Where do you think MONIF goes near term if they have any part of APPL mobile payments

  • Reply to

    Why did I buy over 1.5 million shares of Monitise?

    by ramimd Aug 29, 2014 12:30 PM
    john89930 john89930 Aug 30, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    I am very long MONI but in my opinion it should not be more than 10% of any portfolio. Hopefully, that means you have a $12M portfolio :)

    I am still slightly in the red on my position but added further at 80c on the IBM news so now a 7% position for me. The IBM news in my view totally blows up the short thesis and this is likely just the beginning. Portfolio managers who are lagging the market are now desperately looking for small to mid-cap names with huge catalysts and upside and will flock to this as the good news keeps coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Everyone should email Gil and BJ

    by pipelight Aug 28, 2014 12:03 PM
    john89930 john89930 Aug 28, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Good luck with that one - I don't think they give a damn. Your last paragraph is my biggest fear right now. They raised at $4.10 and now they might ride this to zero with our money. As for their reputations, I think you would be amazed at how many chances people get once they rise to a certain status. I don't invest in lottery tickets though so I need to see tangible evidence that the platform is validated before stroke. Otherwise, I will likely substantially reduce and hedge my position for stroke data. As the expression goes "fool me once...."

  • Reply to

    ATHX - where do we go from here longs?

    by john89930 Aug 25, 2014 10:52 PM
    john89930 john89930 Aug 27, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    Yes, I noticed the large restricted stock and option grants by the board to the CEO last year. I submit that it is FAR different to put your own cash on the table vs free shares....It is just poor form to make comments about the stock price being "undervalued" or "sustainable" and then not step up personally at these levels.

    At any rate, I'm sitting tight for a while to see if they produce any results between now and the stroke data. Hoping for the best at this point.

  • Reply to

    ATHX - where do we go from here longs?

    by john89930 Aug 25, 2014 10:52 PM
    john89930 john89930 Aug 27, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    I am not concerned with the director sale as the options were set to expire. However, that director would not have been allowed to sell if anything material was in the works right now (partnership near signing, Pfizer news, etc). So, a director selling means that the executives could be buying personally also yet they do not. We are coming up to data in 6 months that will either lead to a runaway blockbuster or a complete failure. If I was the CEO and founder since 1995 I would be as levered as humanly possible if I truly believed that the trial would be a success.

    While I understand that UC and stroke are two completely different situations, the market is voting that the failure in UC does indeed somewhat increase the odds of failure in stroke as well (and that seems to be the view of many people on this board with medical backgrounds). I find the complete silence from Gil disconcerting because they almost appear to be unfazed by the huge shareholder losses since April and taking the "all or nothing" lottery ticket mentality. The problem with that is this is shareholder money, not theirs...Management needs to understand that they need to do something before the binary Feb data to validate the platform and somewhat mitigate the total loss scenario for shareholders.

  • john89930 by john89930 Aug 27, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    Is there any doubt that Monitise is going to be a huge winner now. Expanded IBM partnership validates them enormously and it will probably be bought out eventually. LONG AND STRONG MY FRIENDS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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