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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

john89930 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 17, 2015 11:14 AM Member since: Apr 30, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Warrant thoughts

    by john89930 Feb 17, 2015 10:45 AM
    john89930 john89930 Feb 17, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    I have owned the stock for over a year bought the dips sold the rips. Have also spoken directly to the company several times. So I have done plenty of DD. Stay short please so when an order does hit your margin account will be wiped out.

  • john89930 by john89930 Feb 17, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Seems to me like the company's use of the warrants is far better than simply doing a regular public offering. Modest dilution to hold them over until a customer order is announced. They all received large blocks of stock as compensation recently, so it is in their interests to dilute shareholders as little as possible.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • john89930 john89930 Jan 13, 2015 9:46 PM Flag

    I spoke to them to just make sure I was clear about the fundamental pluses and minuses. The numbers haven't really changed IMO and actually the decline in oil and iron ore prices is an incremental positive in terms of input and plant operating costs. Lower Treasury yield and updated mortality tables could be a minor negative on pension expense but not materially so I don't think vs. previous guidance. 2.25% 10 year treasury at the time of their Q3 report vs 1.89% now is relatively small change. They are still going from a cash consuming company to cash generating in 2015 in my view affording them much more flexibility.

    They have no direct exposure to oil and gas specialty products and the rebar commentary in China is pretty much laughable. 75% of their revenues were contract based in Q3 so that provides a significant buffer to lower spot prices near term while plummeting iron ore is a big offset.

    Even if I discount the street estimates for this year we are looking at a company trading at 5x earnings or less. If you want to let the bashers take your shares by all means sell but I believe that the recent drop is more fear mongering and bear raid related than any significant change in the fundamentals. Of course, bears have the ball until the company reports Q4 results later this month but the company is far better positioned than they were when the stock was at these levels in 2013.

  • john89930 john89930 Dec 17, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    I think the stock can go to $10 in short order. Many tailwinds for 2015 and its a very cheap stock especially as estimates will keep getting adjusted higher. Shorts will try to push it down but it probably won't work this time because the numbers are going against them.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • 37% increase in shipments despite the outage, big bottom line beat. 23% short interest you are going to be tripping over yourselves trying to cover as the analysts raise price targets and estimates for 2015

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    pro and con

    by plurka Dec 15, 2014 9:44 AM
    john89930 john89930 Dec 15, 2014 8:41 PM Flag

    Agree. Pretty much all of my watch list of 50 or so small biotech stocks were down big today with IBB off nearly 3%. Usually that means the small caps will be down double plus we may be getting a bunch of tax loss selling before people pack it in for holiday vacations. I was hoping this was over for ATHX though considering how weak it has been.

  • Reply to

    pro and con

    by plurka Dec 15, 2014 9:44 AM
    john89930 john89930 Dec 15, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    While I would be a lot more confident seeing management stepping up to buy large blocks of stock now, I do acknowledge that the CEO and the rest of the management already have a lot of stock. The cash component of CEO Gil's compensation is more in line with the norms if you don't consider the shares and options he was granted. I am OK with the latter because he only makes money if stroke goes well and all shareholders make money and to date has only sold for tax vesting purposes.

    According to the 10K, the CEO made $569K in total cash comp in 2013, $537K in 2012 and $444K in 2011. He owns 917K shares according to the latest filings (and also options) so his real wealth will be made if he can deliver on stroke or other indications.

  • Reply to

    in reply to john's post

    by plurka Dec 12, 2014 4:15 AM
    john89930 john89930 Dec 12, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    My discussion with the company about the expansion of the end points was positive. My view is that even mixed results could be enough for Japan approval so why not give themselves the best odds possible.

  • Reply to

    in reply to john's post

    by plurka Dec 12, 2014 4:15 AM
    john89930 john89930 Dec 12, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    Hi Matty,

    Yes the science and the credentials of mgmt have been part of the reason I have stubbornly held on but the last few months have been brutal with so little info from the management. It's my biggest dollar and percentage loss ever in 25+ years of investing. What I really don't get are the shorts. Even if the odds are slim you can't be short a name that will go to double digits with even a small amount of efficacy on stroke. To me the only debate at this level is whether to be long or be out all together.

  • Reply to

    in reply to john's post

    by plurka Dec 12, 2014 4:15 AM
    john89930 john89930 Dec 12, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    That is fair. Look I am not trying to bash and your posts have provided a huge amount of great information over time. I don't post much because what is the point really??? If the facts change ie japan partnership or a few smart institutions start adding I will reevaluate. I have been looking for any reason to stay because like you I recognize that a positive outcome on stroke is a life changing amount of money.

  • Reply to

    in reply to john's post

    by plurka Dec 12, 2014 4:15 AM
    john89930 john89930 Dec 12, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    I strongly disagree about the hedge funds being unsophisticated. I have two friends that work as analysts in hedge fund health care pods and they have scored big on a few of the small cap bios this year. Even those small positions represented 100+ hours of mgmt calls, discussions with industry expert networks, etc . The institutional ownership has been reduced substantially since UC to a mid teens percentage. Is it possible that everyone has missed this? I suppose there is a very small probability. As to sentiment it is not like I am the weak hand and bailed as soon as UC flopped. I have anguished over this stock for hundreds of hours this year reading every message board post, listening to every presentation, reading every scientific article but at this point being objective there is no conspiracy to keep this down etc.

  • Reply to

    You are what your stock value says you are

    by fazbro2001 Dec 11, 2014 8:24 AM
    john89930 john89930 Dec 12, 2014 1:42 AM Flag

    The fact that ATHX has stayed this low since the UC failure for more than a few weeks tells me the odds of failure on stroke are probably 99%. Do you honestly think that hedge funds wouldn't be ALL OVER this name with such enormous upside if phase 2 goes well? If this even had 20% odds you would see tons of hedge funds willing to hold small $1-2m lotto ticket positions. If you have a $200m book and make this a 1% position it won't hurt you if it's a zero but can make your year if the data is good. The funds have teams of analysts and enormous resources to consult with medical experts and many of the healthcare sector portfolio managers have medical backgrounds and PhDs themselves. There has been ample time to DD this company since UC failed and almost all the institutions have sold. Furthermore, the CEO and CFO have not bought a single share in recent months. I mean come on what does that tell you. It is impossible that they have been restricted or prevented from buying shares this entire time. I have been long for over a year and now down a ton and will be taking the write off before year end unless by some miracle there is actual good news.

  • john89930 by john89930 Nov 4, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    Regardless of which way this breaks the company should investigate the stock action in the past several days including the recent bear raid. Let short sellers explain their plunging activities to FINRA because this kind of BULLSH** costs really hurts individual investors. GLTA

  • john89930 john89930 Oct 30, 2014 11:50 PM Flag

    Ask yourself why Dodd, who sold a company for $1.5B previously, would bother with AEZS if he didn't see major potential? It's not like he needs the money at this point...He seems to know the ropes with the FDA quite well and has prepared for a major rollout in January if approved. In the Q2 call he said the 50 reps will get in front of 100% of the targeted endocrinologists twice within the first 6 months. Mind you this is to replace the insulin tolerance test which they don't like to begin with. You harp on the potential dilution to fund a roll-out but upon approval I think this is about as low risk of a roll-out as we get in small biotech.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sand vs Ceramic Proppant

    by john89930 Oct 24, 2014 5:21 PM
    john89930 john89930 Oct 24, 2014 7:08 PM Flag

    Yes I saw that CRR plunged in the past 2 months after they lost a major customer and lowered their sales outlook. I have also seen two consultant market outlook reports published this month on frac proppant that estimate both sand and ceramics will grow 9-11% annually 2014-2018 (varies a bit by report). With sand the barriers to entry seem lower than ceramics.

  • Doing some initial research on the space and hoping that someone with an oil services background can answer what the applications for ceramic are vs. sand and the cost/benefits of each at $80 oil. It seems that ceramic is preferred for deeper wells where crushing is a factor. What percentage of wells fall in this category?

  • john89930 john89930 Oct 13, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    As a shareholder here for over a year I have several serious issues with the CEO. First, he clearly pumped the stock heavily in late 2013-early 2014 and made misleading statements before bagging holders with a big raise at $4.10. Then after the UC failure he completely blew off the outcome and tried to spin it as completely irrelevant to stroke. Second, he has wasted a lot of time running back and forth to Japan for something that is not even proven to work yet and ramping the manufacturing. Third, the CEO and a few other key people are making a GROSS amount of compensation given the current market cap and the lack of any tangible positive results. Finally, the CEO has repeatedly stated how undervalued the stock is yet has not bought a single share in recent months.

    People are selling because Gil now has zero credibility and this stock has been relegated to a pump and dump.

  • Reply to

    Blood on the streets....

    by ramimd Sep 18, 2014 11:07 AM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 18, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    The bottom line is the stock has not acted well for months now and it was easy to overrule my normal loss discipline when I saw major bulls cheerleading and adding all the way down.

    It is obvious whoever emerges as the winners in mobile payments will be great investments but this is a major fundamental blow that even the most die-hard bull has to honestly acknowledge.

  • Reply to

    Blood on the streets....

    by ramimd Sep 18, 2014 11:07 AM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 18, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    There's blood all right. It's my portfolio bleeding to death today with this junk. -2% hit to my portfolio on a spec name. I forced myself to liquidate.

    In retrospect there were many signs this was in big trouble but hindsight is just that....Huge pop on IBM and immediately sold off, no Apple announcement and slid further, very little communication from Monitise to its shareholders while the stock was falling off a cliff and being attacked by shorts. I also learned a painful lesson about putting too much weight on big names like Cooperman/Kass. Without their involvement I would not have invested and certainly it would have been a 2-3% position tops (it was a 7% position unfortunately).

    Anyway, good luck to everyone here but when major negative news like this hits I have to admit that I am wrong and cut my losses. IBM may very well seize this opportunity but hoping for a takeout is not an investment strategy for me.

  • Reply to

    More dilution

    by john89930 Sep 15, 2014 4:56 PM
    john89930 john89930 Sep 15, 2014 9:02 PM Flag

    Thank god this isn't a big position for me but it definitely hurts to lose 25% on any amount of shares. Another tax loss

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