I think people who have followed ROSG for more than a day trade are sophisticated enough to understand the lag between billings and cash receipts. Medicare billings come in right away but payments from insurers are on a lag. Regardless, with a stock that's easily worth $10+ based on my own simple DCF analysis I am not going to mess around trying to game the stock for 50c and risk missing a triple.
More than the price of the test, what I really like is the snowball effect of selling this kind of product. Once a group of oncologists start using the CUP test for patients those doctors need very little further attention from sales reps. So even though its only a low single digit % of patients, I can see how they will have huge stickiness once the business is put on. Let's say you have 90% persistency from doctors who begin using the tests. That makes an enormous difference in how quickly ROSG will be able to ramp revenues.
This is going to be a huge year for ROSG. I believe it will triple as sales ramp up and once it gets there institutional investors will take notice and give this company a real valuation. I usually trade in and out of my small bio holdings but this one warrants an accumulate and hold strategy.
Other than a few small spec bio plays I have been 90% in cash the past 8 trading days. As soon as the EM fears starting getting real attention the market has not acted well (actually I feel the tone of the market has changed ever since the taper began) and I decided (luckily) to sell almost everything.
Every time I felt the urge to "buy the dip" I would think of one of my favorite Jesse Livermore quotes "Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.".....
Well with today's action I decided to finally act and got short around the close via ETFs. The action of SPY in particular was very odd with SPY seeming to have more beta than the underlying stocks themselves. And to top it off they ran it right into the close with the jobs number looming tomorrow morning which felt like an added bit of chasing. Today seemed like an oversold bounce on low volume that was manipulated up to force people to BTD.
Anyway, I guess I'll see tomorrow if I will cover and get long or be proven correct. The risk still seems to be to the downside.