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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

john89930 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 17, 2015 11:14 AM Member since: Apr 30, 2013
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  • john89930 john89930 Jan 13, 2015 9:46 PM Flag

    I spoke to them to just make sure I was clear about the fundamental pluses and minuses. The numbers haven't really changed IMO and actually the decline in oil and iron ore prices is an incremental positive in terms of input and plant operating costs. Lower Treasury yield and updated mortality tables could be a minor negative on pension expense but not materially so I don't think vs. previous guidance. 2.25% 10 year treasury at the time of their Q3 report vs 1.89% now is relatively small change. They are still going from a cash consuming company to cash generating in 2015 in my view affording them much more flexibility.

    They have no direct exposure to oil and gas specialty products and the rebar commentary in China is pretty much laughable. 75% of their revenues were contract based in Q3 so that provides a significant buffer to lower spot prices near term while plummeting iron ore is a big offset.

    Even if I discount the street estimates for this year we are looking at a company trading at 5x earnings or less. If you want to let the bashers take your shares by all means sell but I believe that the recent drop is more fear mongering and bear raid related than any significant change in the fundamentals. Of course, bears have the ball until the company reports Q4 results later this month but the company is far better positioned than they were when the stock was at these levels in 2013.

  • john89930 by john89930 Feb 17, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Seems to me like the company's use of the warrants is far better than simply doing a regular public offering. Modest dilution to hold them over until a customer order is announced. They all received large blocks of stock as compensation recently, so it is in their interests to dilute shareholders as little as possible.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Warrant thoughts

    by john89930 Feb 17, 2015 10:45 AM
    john89930 john89930 Feb 17, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    I have owned the stock for over a year bought the dips sold the rips. Have also spoken directly to the company several times. So I have done plenty of DD. Stay short please so when an order does hit your margin account will be wiped out.

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