I would have to concur the current stock movement does not seem to have any support. They are spending tons of money to lose users. This link goes into the numbers ... not sure this one has any staying power ... thinking this may be a good short position.
No I meant to clarify this is not to mislead. I did sell this short and have already closed my position.
I am actually going back again to see why I should not short again. IE. is there a reason the stock is worth the investment or is this truly hyped as the many reports and analysis say or is there a true value.
I did attempt to pull up the cc call transcript to highlight the specific response however I am unable to locate the transcript ... I typically use seeking Alpha's site but it seems there is not one available. However if you are able to find it or go back to the recorded cc call and fast forward to the Q&A you will find several reference in which refer to the response I was highlighted.
I am sorry if you feel this was a lie because that was not the intent. However I am still am concerned with the inability to to see the details of the game. You can have a free popular game even being the most popular on FB however if you are not making any money on it then it does not seem that doing more of the same thing will increase revenue only expenses. Which in turns means this company will not be successful.
I saw the same article and although interesting it is hard to see how you would monetize this. What now they are going to get into cloud services and data center hosting vs. games. Not sure that is where the core business is and that will actually take them into the big boy arena which already have cloud services and experience in providing these services.
Again most importantly ... it sounds fancy but hard to see how they make money on this and increase revenue. Trying to create a community of friends that like to play games and socialize seems like they may be stepping out and trying to compete with FB. That should be interesting.
I realize this is an IT saving and reducing costs is most certainly important.
I believe you are highlighting in your second point about the marketing money that google and facbook and linkin make. Although that is true they gather funds by users clicking on ads.
However think your logic through ... if on google etc I am searching a particular topic I get a related add because of the search.
However if I am playing a game I do not want ads for anything popping up. Additionally if your playing a game you are not going to stop playing and then go shopping. Where as if you are online searching clothing you are likely to purchase.
As companies look to advertise I would out of the options you provided you really think hey ... someone playing a free game may just want to spend money ... very unlikely.
I should clerify ... they did cover MAP the information they did not disclose was the MAP user per game and if each were up or down or breaking out online vs. marketing.
You will see the point by researching Non GAAP accounting. Typically (not always) firms use this and the concern with using Non GAAP accounting is that it allows for "creative accounting".
This is related to the issue of transparency ... you will find the general agreement is that it is used to hide weakness.
Recent article GRPN goes into the concern a bit further.
So because they take a free game and place it in the cloud more people will pay to play!
Not sure I follow the logic.
Cloud is just a virtual place to have the games so they can scale the service. But to be clear it is not a way to bring paying customers.
GRPN was used as an example for Non GAAP accounting practices ... to be clear I am not comparing overall Zynga with Grpn only the research on the NON GAAP accounting which they both came out with and which is a concern.
You answered your own question.
because anyone one else can come in and do the same thing.
But to your point "the real genius is retaining the customers."
it is not so much retaining customers but retaining and and growing paying customers.
Again which zygna does not provide information on number of paying customers and the majority of their games are decreasing in the number of individuals that play.
Again ask yourself ... do you play and pay or know anyone at all that does ... if not you may want to reconsider if this stock will hold it value.
Owner shares in a company I would personally want to know where and how you are making your money and how you intend to increase that. If you do not show that it appears to me that things are not as they seem!
Also ... ask yourself ..
How many people do you know that play any of the games?
Also how many people out of the number above actually pay for the games?
take the number above and add it up over a yearly bases. Remember on 22% of their users are active daily/monthly and they will not post how much of the 22% actually pay and how much they pay.
The fact they will not disclose it is concerning as if it were high they would most certainly release the information.
Solid point ... however I cannot see a company that is looking to expand their gaming to not have at least a minimal support staff.
But to your point not sure I have ever had a good customer experience.
I guess what made up facts are you referring to. You can read the Q&A from the earning call to see how they did not provide the details on paying customers or metrics.
Low barriers to entry easy that is obvious
Non-GAAP accounting ... read up on it as GRPN used the same methodology and was creamed for it as well.
Not sure what other made up facts you are referring to but you can do your research on the topics and you will find all to be true.
Facebook is unique however it seems that they may struggle a bit as well. Interesting article on Bloomberg about companies trying to create storefronts on FB to sell to customers.
That said FB is completely different from Zynga as there are too many other problems with Zynga that FB did not have to deal with.
The primary one is the low barriers for others to compete. Too many people creating free social games and zynga has not stickiness (the ability to keep customers).
Interesting ... I thought I would test this out
Below are the results
Called in for support which is advertised as 24/7
You have the options of
1 help with game play
2 help with technical issues
3 for billing issues
The first two options direct you back to their web site and email support.
After selecting option 3 you get a message that an agent will be with you shortly.
I was on hold for a total of almost 10 min
I would say support for a new company is key. I can see a 10 min wait if I was calling into a larger firm however a 10 min wait before you even begin reviewing a billing issue seems to be above what it should.
I will say if I was playing the game and had technical issues I would not want to email my questions and wait for a response.
I would agree with the overall assessment that support is below average.
Seems it will only get worse as they look to expand games and platforms.
Looks like they will need that PR firm for sure.
- Extremely low barriers to entry - FB could easily make their own games and take 100% oi profit especially with their new payment product.
- over 1 million other free games to choose from
- costs more money to make the games then Revenue they bring in.
- Non GAAP used as GAPP would show the true weakness
- Company is not transparent on details on number of paying clients out of the Active users. This is for the obvious reason that they do not want to show how few paying customers they really have as this would send investors running.
- Growth last quarter sunk to single digits ... this is only typically in mature companies not startups.
- Only possibility for this stock is to go so low that they can be bought by a larger company. No way this will occur with the price where it is now.
I do not care either way however if you are long you should consider what changes you think will begin.
Any using the poker game as a reason you may want to think again about all the other companies again that they will compete with.
Four people with smart phones and FB accounts and all play other free games as paying for a social game makes no sense when there are 50 other similar games for free.
Either way it will be interesting to watch this stock. So long or short gl!