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Extendicare Inc. Message Board

johndaley404 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 24, 2015 9:42 AM Member since: Oct 17, 2012
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  • johndaley404 by johndaley404 Aug 24, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    down 35%???

  • Maybe someone can illuminate this better for me as I haven't really looked at it much since putting on an original position a year or two ago.

    My understanding is that they are at most 25% of the coking coal market. Due to their technique they have no environmental emissions and are the cheapest operator. If US Steel or Mittal or someone shuts down a plant at the end of a contract, then I thought they would just contract with SXC for a different plant. I.e., the pending environmental regulations, the prohibitive cost of building new coking coal capacity and the steel manufacturer's existing very high cost of coking coal capacity would make anyone want to sign an agreement with SXC to take over their coking coal operations, rather than do it themselves.

    Now, it's possible that the next contracts are at lower rates if these companies are out of business and the price of coal continues to go down, but there is no competition for SXC's services at a similar price level. At 25% of the market, they would need the existing blast furnace market to decline by 75% in order for them to not have any available customers. This is the extreme, but it just doesn't seem at all possible.

  • Reply to

    Help Understand

    by bmwman23233 Aug 6, 2015 8:39 AM
    johndaley404 johndaley404 Aug 6, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    In general, the larger solar wins are coming in much lower margin business. The real key to watch is the Utility segment and the Energy Efficiency segments. They are growing very nicely at reasonable margins. The solar is extremely lumpy, and much lower margin.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    CamelBac

    by bamajoe20715 Jul 27, 2015 9:40 AM
    johndaley404 johndaley404 Jul 27, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    very quick math is they are selling it for 14x EBITDA or so - for a company that only trades at 7-8x EBITDA that seems like a lot

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