Also work being done by PFE...
"A CTD–Pfizer collaboration: manual curation of 88 000 scientific articles text mined for drug–disease and drug–phenotype interactions"
What happens when this becomes the industry norm?
Google the following articles:
"Computational Chemists Awarded the Nobel Prize By the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences"
"A self-updating road map of The Cancer Genome Atlas"
"DNA scientists map origins of cancer"
"Cancer’s family tree mapped by fingerprinting single cancer cells"
"Computing Model Could Lead to Quicker Advancements in Medical Research"
~ Add to that work being done by The Cancer Genome Atlas, AMIA, and a few advanced genomic companies and even work being done by GE.
So I think the rate of change is going to be faster than expected once all the dots are connected, which I think will happen in about 3 to 5 years.
On December 3rd, 2013, the 20 day moving average volume was 430,000 shares per day.
On December 4th, with no news, there was 3.23 million shares traded with the stock moving down 4.3%.
On December 5th after market close, the company released the new data.
Someone leaked the news. This is obvious and the SEC should do a thorough investigation.
Agree with everything you have said. With the current developments in both mapping (reference last 7 days) and immuno-therapies (too numerous to mention), cancer will be, or at least most forms of it, will be easily treatable in 5 years.
I am curious your thoughts on the implications on the structural changes in the healthcare system / economy that causes... because current therapies and treatment centers eat up a lot of money... translate economic potential. I think there is going to be a whip lash effect.
Just doing a quick and dirty analysis:
With the cessation of Canadian operations, net income should go up around 50 million dollars on an annual basis. Even factoring in a 6% overall decline in US store sales which is the worst case scenario, this should place 2014 net income at around 184.5 million dollars or an EPS of around $3.15 per share.
As they are estimating 2013 EPS at $1.45 to $1.65 per share, or $2.35 to $2.63 sans write down respectively, this represents a 2014 EPS growth of roughly 20% excluding the write down.
So I am watching the after hours trades in enormous volume and order sizes... 44,000 total in lots (less than 10% of daily volume) of 100 to 500 shares respectively, and I am thinking two things:
1. A strong dip here is a huge opportunity if Big Lots can show traction in 2014.
2. The after hours decline is all retail investors, so I am speculating this is going to turn into a horrible case of whip lash in the next 48 hours after the big boys crunch their numbers.
Big Lots just cut off a cancer... who ever thought that Canada would be a growth market should also be canned. Sorry for all the people that got laid off... I know that pain.
Well I guess you got the thumbs down because of a superficial understanding of what you are actually saying.
I agree with you though - but I don't believe it will happen. Partnership more likely and would be a great boon for Vertex.
Happy Thanksgiving to you as well. Many things to be thankful for, and I just want to express my gratitude for good contributors on this board.
Regarding the CF issue... the 150 million influx changes a 400 million dollar issue to a 250 issue. That is roughly 1000 patients, so the positive news near term could bode very well for confidence in Vertex stock. In fact, I would tentatively state that I wouldn't be surprised by a near term rally if the near term data bakes in the success of future data next year... which is why I have also opened some Dec call positions... either they expire or it is a merry merry Christmas. De-risking Vertex at this stage will double the share value. The cash is a measure of de-risking... the next two expected data releases will also de-risk... leaving only the speculation on the lion share data... so how does the market price that? Your guess is as good as mine... I am willing to bet on it though... hence the call options.
I also think that Third's mention of the ECFS meeting next year is an important date to pay attention too.
Not going to apologize for opinion sways, I don't allow myself to fall in love with a stock... love can make you blind... I avoided a 20% drop and am sitting on a 8% gain.
I also think that the VX135 data could come in early...
The price dropped on account of cash flow concerns. The recent J&J rights payment is the reason for the recovery.
These reasons you state above were all well known before the drop, and therefore cannot account for the recovery or the drop for that matter... it is not news.
Not discounting the value at all... but this should be an indicator how much the market values Vertex's cash flow position and what impact any further delay in delivery will cause. And I emphasize delay, not failure.
What does this mean? Any delay will likely cause similar (20%) decline in the stock price... and is an opportunity.
Opened a position in Big Lots. The recent seeking alpha article is #$%$. I think this holiday is going to be filled with upside surprise and BIG is undervalued relative to peers. If a rising tide raises all ships, this should do well.
The SA article makes some very valid points that are supported with data. Spend your time refuting the points in lieu of dismissing it as his 'opinion'.
Honestly, do you think everyone is just dumb? This was a momo (momentum) trade... pure and simple. The facts the SA article presented popped the balloon.
38% fall in two days is not a reaction to someone's 'opinion'... but do please continue to bury your head in the sand.
This will rinse and repeat. Just wait.
I don't think AF's article was negative at all. I do think that if everyone knows the price of R117 is baked in... then if successful, will it justify baking in the success of the 551 studies in advance of data? ~ Just a thought.
This actually bolster's my theory that the down fall is entirely on account of pricing in the risk of Vertex's cash flow. I honestly didn't even consider this - blind-sighted. But it shows they are looking for ways to raise cash.
If this goes sideways a bit, I am thinking I would be comfortable calling it a base until further CF news is released. Dipped my toes in the pool today... but this is still a very binary issue.
You must have went to the buy high sell low school of investing
You only lost if you bought above $9... everyone that sold made money.
Do you due diligence... the best tech is in the Universities and is being licensed to well, everyone. Onvo never had a lock on the intellectual property, still doesn't... and thanks for the triple.
in less than 6 months. I think they have been trying to avoid doing this by looking for a "partner". In the absence of finding a "partner" they will have to resort to raising equity.
I think that any institutional investor will want a 20% buffer and the the CF franchise is reasonably priced at 13 billion. This equates to about $47 per share. At 30% you get $41 per share. Hence the $40 to $50 per share range I have previously stated.
And I think that if they do this, they will dovetail it on some positive news such as the R117 data and / or the VX-135 data.