Current Market Cap = 30.24 billion
Projected Added Gross Revenue On Approval = 30,000 x 40% x $300,000 = 3.6 billion
Projected Added Cost of Sales = 3.6 billion x 10% = 360 million
Projected Total S&OP Costs = 1.9 billion
Projected Total Revenue = 4.2 billion
Projected Net Income = 2.3 billion
30.24 / 2.3 = 13.14 times future earnings. So a 20% to 25% run is realistic - I think you may be right.
That was my initial caution. Another way to look at this, is that it implies they expect cash flow development 2 to 3 quarters ahead of current pace, or they just get more debt. But no dilution is a positive.
I don't know how many times I posted they needed money. 300 M seems either too small as I thought a billion based on development forecasts and cash flow projections - OR - this is an incredibly bullish sign that Vertex management reasonably projects that (A) they will increase revenue by additional indications, partnerships, or sale of non strategic assets, or (B) accelerate development, or (C) any combination thereof.
So how do you read it? Bull case or Bear case. I am leaning towards Bull.