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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

johnf50 4 posts  |  Last Activity: May 13, 2015 8:10 PM Member since: Sep 6, 2011
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  • Reply to

    37 Billion company for sure

    by rojospan May 12, 2015 7:36 PM
    johnf50@rocketmail.com johnf50 May 13, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    Double the average volume and a 1% gain? Why are people jumping in? And why are those jumping out not demanding a MUCH higher price?

  • Reply to

    37 Billion company for sure

    by rojospan May 12, 2015 7:36 PM
    johnf50@rocketmail.com johnf50 May 12, 2015 8:40 PM Flag

    Current Market Cap = 30.24 billion
    Projected Added Gross Revenue On Approval = 30,000 x 40% x $300,000 = 3.6 billion
    Projected Added Cost of Sales = 3.6 billion x 10% = 360 million
    Projected Total S&OP Costs = 1.9 billion
    Projected Total Revenue = 4.2 billion
    Projected Net Income = 2.3 billion

    30.24 / 2.3 = 13.14 times future earnings. So a 20% to 25% run is realistic - I think you may be right.

  • Reply to

    FORM 8-K

    by thirdmeinvestor Jul 9, 2014 5:55 PM
    johnf50@rocketmail.com johnf50 Jul 9, 2014 8:38 PM Flag

    That was my initial caution. Another way to look at this, is that it implies they expect cash flow development 2 to 3 quarters ahead of current pace, or they just get more debt. But no dilution is a positive.

    J

  • Reply to

    FORM 8-K

    by thirdmeinvestor Jul 9, 2014 5:55 PM
    johnf50@rocketmail.com johnf50 Jul 9, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    I don't know how many times I posted they needed money. 300 M seems either too small as I thought a billion based on development forecasts and cash flow projections - OR - this is an incredibly bullish sign that Vertex management reasonably projects that (A) they will increase revenue by additional indications, partnerships, or sale of non strategic assets, or (B) accelerate development, or (C) any combination thereof.

    So how do you read it? Bull case or Bear case. I am leaning towards Bull.

    J

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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