Agree. And if results are bad, he will wish he still had something. I don't think the issue is what could potentially happen... it is how does he cope with his nearly 50% loss.
If you have 20 k shares in reserve and have taken profits off the table - I envy you! You will retire nicely if PRAN is successful - no further work needed. At a 3% dividend rate and PRAN hitting $750 per share... you will be sitting on north of 400 k per year in investment income from your portfolio. Don't worry though, if you are in the U.S., I am sure the government will make you pay your fair share of taxes.
However, if you are willing to do your homework, you will find other opportunities. I would suggest waiting on PRAN results... other opportunities categorically are in mining, manufacturing, communications, computers, five other diseases, logistics, automotive, and energy - these are all hints and not all of them are US centric.
PRAN is just on the forefront chronologically. What is good business advice? Have a five year plan...
My opinion, If you don't have more than 5% in PRAN, don't do anything. Wherever it goes, count it as a lesson learned. If you do, you shouldn't have invested that much on a % basis any way and should decide what your willing to lose.... count it as a lesson learned. This is a binary issue - it will succeed or fail and you won't have any warning until after the price moves. The idea that this will return to $13, or fall to $3, or whatever, is pure speculation akin to playing slots. Don't take that as callousness, take that as I too have learned very hard lessons.
Still desperate to defend yourself when the comment was not directed at you? And without any credible information, you resort to insults. That states volumes about the security you have in your posturing, and I would therefore assume that the majority of your posts are lies. Thank you for proving my point, and I would encourage any that follow me to place you succinctly on the ignore list.
Life experience would dictate that when you blindly throw a rock into a pack of dogs... the one that yelps is the one you hit.
According to Vangaurd as reported last year:
Under 25 $3,865
And that said, this is biotech, anyone who invests more than 5% of their investment capital in biotech is making a grave portfolio management error. You can read between the lines there... and yelp again.
So anyone who can take their cost basis off the table... already should have. If you are greedy and are all in... well, I hope your risk is commensurate with your reward. Myself, I have been trading equities for 15 years, and experience says... take your cost off the table and diversify, diversify, diversify.
It is nice not having to watch the daily price movements. So for those freaking out about the day to day... think about what the emotional stress is worth to you. What is peace of mind worth? Bottom line, don't be greedy.
And for those talking about owning 10,000 or more shares from the mid $6's, I have to call baloney. Most retail investors don't have more than $20,000 in working capital, and an easy google search on money statistics reveals this, so it is just amazing to me how many gazillionaires are on the Yahoo message boards who are throwing around hundreds of thousands of dollars every 20 minutes... when the reality is 80% of people in their mid 40's don't have more than $50,000 in an investment account / 401(k).
I bought on the preliminary positive data, albeit only 8 patients, which as you know is not statistically significant. I originally had over 4,000 shares in the mid 2's. Now, sitting on roughly 1,000 shares and I don't care what it does. If this is successful... $750 to $1,500 per share.
Peace of mind. And it only cost me roughly $15 k in profits. So please BASH BASH BASH this stock... if this trend continues for another a week, I might just become a strong buyer again.
And on a implied volatility basis.... stay away from options. For those posting 100% gains on puts bought a week ago... come on, a 100% gain on an option is not that uncommon. Whoop-tee-do (technical term)
And if this does go to the moon in price, I will still have no regrets... there is always a 'next big thing'. I have identified 12 more opportunities for this year with an equivalent potential to PRAN... I state that to incite you to look for them.
GILD's rise to 130 B had more to do with advances in diabetes, cancer, and HIV.
While I agree that there is more value in VX-135, PSI-7997 is not the whole story regarding GILD's rise.
Thank you for the vote of confidence. I am sure you did your due diligence. So let me follow up with my assertions.
Price tag too high: My wife is a director for a nursing home. The issue is, where is that money going to come from. The most common trade off is that we are spending X on this now, and we can just take that money out of X. The problem with that is that there is just to much overlap with reasons people are in long term care or end of life care generally to qualify exactly what we are spending on X. At least in the US, and the ACA, there is limits. And there will continue to be limits. The other thing is that this is a chronic condition. Meaning that a higher price tag is not going to be necessary to recover costs and be profitable.
I am thinking PBT2 will be prescribed and have market / economic behavior very similar to Statins. Widely prescribed and relatively cheap. I think with the advent of newer testing mechanisms, PBT2 would be prescribed starting in the early 30's as a preventative regimen for people that test positive for markers. Based on my own observation, I have seen 100's of patients die over the years from other conditions and yet were showing signs of some form of dementia but were not classified as such. The newer tests are going to change this. This supports my theory that the population size is too low.
My hard drive crashed and I lost my model, otherwise I would give you some more concrete numbers.
Either case, the future for PRAN is up!
Your price tag for the drug is too high. Your population size is too low. But your market cap of 30 billion sounds about right. A useful comparison would be the Hep C space and how how that has been. The key difference between that space and this one, is that as far as we understand treating this disease with PBT2, the income is in perpetuity. I would not be surprised to see this go at a premium of 45 billion. These are big numbers and represent mid- $1,500s per share value.
There is another post about the timing of the gain. That is relevant. This goes higher from here.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
And the up trend and amazing volume are very strong indicators of demand - institutions are getting in. The way this issue trades day to day is going to change.
Irrational exuberance and pure greed would only hold on those returns Goutah.
Similar position myself... I bought in the $1.50's to 2.50's only to sell in the $4.00's... and then the $6.00's... and then yesterday. I never expected this to hit double digits before results.
Do I regret not holding everything until now? A little. But I have no regrets at this point if it goes down and peace of mind if it goes up.
What people should see your actions as is that it is not fear. It is investment maturity.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I hope you are not short for your own sake.
This is a breakout - plain as day.
$135.... 20 days.
Now we have both made some 'out there' assertions... check back in with you in a couple weeks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well, since we are doing algebra:
Vertex up 2.4%. Shorts lost 466 million.
Insiders also made 5 million dollars today... and all the longs are up too.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Glad you haven't changed your handle... makes it easy to see how much money you have lost trying to catalyze downward momentum. This is an institutional stock so you are wasting your time.
Seems my message was cut off.
...imminent [less than 2 mths] break out.
non-gating mutation is my speculative catalyst. Unless I missed that one.
Been busy in the mining sector. And for Vertex longs, and longs in general, I encourage looking what the demand curve is on the rising middle class for iron. Prices in the near term (and investments) are likely to take hits which are opportunities. This is a 20 year investment. Potential technological disruptions are RPM and HSHP concrete.
1/3 of my position in Sangamo which reflected 18% of my portfolio... those Jan 20 calls did nicely (sold those last week) as well.
Used the proceeds to buy Vertex!!! This has the appearance of an imminent (