You bet ! They have three products that are projected to be in the market in late 2016. AT-001, AT-002 & AT-003 are three products that Aratana is planning to commercialize in the second half of 2016. AT-004 & AT-005 are on the market but will not capture market opportunity according to Aratana's recent product update. They are working on a second generation AT-004 & AT-005.
Projected revenues for AT-001,AT-002 & AT-003 - if each estimated to generate about $50 million each by end of 2017, then revenue estimate = $150 million. Giving avg.market multiple (x3) for this industry, stock should $450 million. So, the stock should trade at least at $12 or $14 per share by the end of 2016 if , Aratana manages to get these drugs approved and commercialize successfully as they have been saying.
So, estimate is there is at least 50% upside to PETX shares from here.
In the short term, it is going down to $6 or $7 if biotechs continue to selloff.
If you are a long term investor , this could be a great buying opportunity.
This is the news no financialbio. Does that look like a decrease in stake to you, meetup?
Gamco Investors, Inc Et Al has filed a SC 13D/A form about Bioscrip, Inc. Filing Text: 000080724915000206. From Mario Gabelli’s Gamco Investors, Inc Et Al’s filing, we see increased stake in the stock by 87.76% to 9,322,400 shares. Mario Gabelli’s Gamco Investors, Inc Et Al owns after the filling 13.56% of the Health Care-firm. The form was required because of trading on September 22, 2015.
How do you know? Did you check the SEC filing that GAMCO decreased BIOS position.?
Gabelli seems to be doing the same, averaging down. Recently read a news that Gamco Investors increased their position in BioScrip (on Sep. 22) . BioScrip is at a critical stage in the turnaround process. If it does not work out, then anything is possible. They are unable to control/manage expenses. New BOD team is tasked with this. I am long & still a believer in BIOS. Unfortunatley I could not pick up shares when it fell in low 1's last month ,was on vacation.
But the filing is at least 45 days old, remember that. By the time we look at it, they might have sold the stock in their portfolio already.
excellent job, elahsilo finding this news. Thanks.
This company has great potential. Next year or two will be critical. I will be patiently holding on to shares. I bought it when the stock was down significantly ($10 or $11). Plan to buy more if it ever goes back to that level (assuming the story has not changed). Good luck to you all.
Good to hear from you markdevera! Indeed, I am patient and i actually liked that i got the opportunity to pick up the shares at a discount. Glad to see Castor still believes in it and i am going along with him.
Yep, i am here too. It is tough to see this go down but you have got to be patient if you believe otherwise just take a loss and move on. Really surprised that they got only $25 million for the PBM business.Analysts were estimating they will get $40- $60 million and were saying stock will shoot higher almost regardless of what they get. I guess it could be the revenue guidance that is causing the pain today.
If they are forced to sell due to inability of management to turn this around and improve EBITDA, margins & cash flow then the sale will happen at distressed share price i would think. Not sure what that price would be. $4,5 , 6 or 7 . Just guessing. I really do not like the CEO -Rick Smith.
Yep, you are correct. $50 -$70 is what i heard too for PBM business.. But some analysts are saying that just the announcement of this sale will make the stock shoot higher.
How do they pay down debt ? The answer could sale of PBM business. In the past they sold non-core assets and generated cash to partially pay down debt and also for acquisitions.
I would agree debt is big worry given that margins are not improving. As Gabelli said, if this management does not get it's act together (about the cost structure) then they may be forced to sell the whole company.
Hello my friend jfrancisofsi. I am not sure if you read the Gabelli Funds Q1 2015 report. It seems like Gabelli is planning to hang on. Gabelli thinks that the activist investor (Chirs Shackelton) might force cost structure improvements.
Remember, to make extraordinary gains you have to be contrarian sometimes and buy when everybody is selling. If you believe in the fundamentals of BIOS business, this may be an exceptional opportunity to buy for parabolic gains.And , if you hedge well, you should be good.
BIOS management is looking to stabilize PBM business and they want to sell that business so that they can focus on Infusion services business which has better margins and will make potential acquisition of BIOS easier.
I am a huge long as well. I have been in BIOS since late 2013 and it was just my bad timing to buy this stock. Just to remind, the near term catalyst could be a sale of PBM business. The stock will go up regardless of what they get for it.