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Stoneridge Inc. Message Board

johnford706 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 22, 2016 9:58 PM Member since: Mar 17, 2013
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  • Reply to

    nice Market order

    by lofgrenfan Apr 21, 2016 4:00 PM
    johnford706 johnford706 Apr 22, 2016 9:58 PM Flag

    Sanofi's product was a bit complicated, so i heard. It would take at least a year to redesign and submit application again. On the other hand, Adamis's product is literally an injectable syringe. Research why they received a response letter last year. It took Adamis about 9 months to resubmit the application with a new design because there was a problem with the volume of the drug injected. I hope they got it right this time.

  • Reply to

    BIOS New Board Member looks good!

    by jfrancisofsi Apr 18, 2016 3:14 PM
    johnford706 johnford706 Apr 19, 2016 3:17 PM Flag

    Thanks mpackard.

    Yes, it appears that Dan Miler & Gamco funds hanging in there. But i am sure they are probably frustrated as well.
    It certainly has been very frustrating past 2-3 years for me with this stock and i am sure some of you have been suffering as well.Initially, I bought when the price was in teens (in 2013). So my avg. price in two different accounts is around $5 & $8 respectively. I am hoping when it is sold , i break even at the least.
    Various other Gabelli Fund managers (Laura Linehan, Beth Lilly) have talked about BIOS in the past 2-3 years to Barrons, CNBC, Bloomberg etc. very highly about potential sale at 10-15 EBITDA multiple, if Rick Smith can get this company's cost structure in order. Obviously, the various merger integrations have been messy and now we are talking "turnaround". It was shocking to hear that they sold PBM business for only $25M. So, have to be very cautious what the whole company will be sold for even when they right this ship.

  • Reply to

    BIOS New Board Member looks good!

    by jfrancisofsi Apr 18, 2016 3:14 PM
    johnford706 johnford706 Apr 19, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    jfran - BIOS has a lot of , what appear to be 'heavy hitters" on its board. Carter Pate who is heading the "turnaorund implementation" team is also top guy.
    Do you know what Dan Miller of Gabelli Funds is up to as far as BIOS position is concerned?
    It would be very interesting to hear his commentary on the turnaournd execution so far and also what he thinks may happen in the near term.
    Thanks for posting this information.

  • Reply to

    Keep an eye on Carlo as He

    by wyattkap Apr 17, 2016 9:30 AM
    johnford706 johnford706 Apr 18, 2016 10:07 AM Flag

    Yes,i am not sarcastic about $1B valuation. I know the product pipeline story and i have been following this company for almost two years. Essentially, i know the bull story but just to make sure there is nothing in the blind spot i need to hear bear argument as well so that i can hedge appropriately in a timely manner.
    Biotech/pharma stocks can cause investors serious price pain because biotech/pharma companies have to play that FDA roulette game. Read my old posts on ADMP last year before March 28, 2015 PDUFA date for epiPFS. Approval was never a slam dunk as some noted investors were thinking.
    I am not here to criticize any MB members , i am just looking for fair and balanced rational discussion and reasonable explanation and also sharing of good honest information, & strategies etc.
    I am in ADMP stock for the long haul. Like you, i do believe, there is a long term value here. Of course, there is a tremendous amount of risk because product pipeline approval is not guaranteed.
    Good Luck everyone.

  • Reply to

    Keep an eye on Carlo as He

    by wyattkap Apr 17, 2016 9:30 AM
    johnford706 johnford706 Apr 17, 2016 12:55 PM Flag

    $1B market cap , sure. When do you think that will happen?

  • Reply to

    Considering the recent movement of admp...

    by emclu Apr 16, 2016 8:58 AM
    johnford706 johnford706 Apr 17, 2016 12:24 PM Flag

    Mr. Ling-Ling Wang, you are the one who is pumping the stock.Read your comment. You are stating that it will be "$250M" upon approval , that is more than 100% up from current levels. Sure, it is possible the stock can double from here upon approval and i will look like a fool if i sell it at $8 or $9. Probability of doubling the stock within a month or two - is 5% in my opinion (if i am a betting man, i dont like this odd).
    All i was saying was that it can go up until the PDUFA date but since it has risen so fast in the last few days, it is smart to take some chips off the table.
    I am bullish long term though (due to other products in the pipeline) however, in my opinion current valuation reflects approval.
    But if you think otherwise then , hey, that's what makes the market , right ? I will be on the other side until i feel the valuation is reasonable. Nothing wrong with making money by going short or long.

  • Reply to

    Considering the recent movement of admp...

    by emclu Apr 16, 2016 8:58 AM
    johnford706 johnford706 Apr 17, 2016 8:19 AM Flag

    That is correct, my sentiment around $7-$8 is a buy since i expected this run up to PDUFA date. Investors can still push it above $10 but i see there is a valuation risk given the history of this stock. I plan to sell it if it shoots towards $10. Beware, the current valuation i think almost prices in approval and the future sales. Do you know how much revenue ADMP is expected to make in the next one year (post epiPFS approval)? Do the math.
    If you think the investors will value it $250M upon approval, good luck to you my friend.

  • Reply to

    Considering the recent movement of admp...

    by emclu Apr 16, 2016 8:58 AM
    johnford706 johnford706 Apr 16, 2016 10:08 AM Flag

    Most likely, we wont go above $9 even if we get epi PFS approval because valuation does not support given the market share it is believed to capture. I will be pleasantly surprised if we go above $10. To trade in the teens it needs major partnership announcement or some great news on the APC-5000 development.

  • Reply to

    Are we going to see a $7 handle soon???

    by wyattkap Apr 11, 2016 12:44 PM
    johnford706 johnford706 Apr 14, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    Up on a monster volume. Run up to PDUFA date was expected and also, market is in good mood in general. Enjoy the ride. Cheers!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ADMP - what is going on ? Down on heavy volume on apparently no news or did i miss something?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Time to go long .....

    by parksinvestgp Mar 22, 2016 11:17 AM
    johnford706 johnford706 Mar 22, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    Yes, 3 products approval and launch in 2016 has been in the plan for a long time and i believe these 3 approvals were supposed to be 'low' risk ( as compared to AT-004 & AT-005). Product launch is a big risk. However, i dont understand why there were a couple of downgrades and price target cuts just yesterday or last week. Depressing to say the least.

  • Reply to

    Time is running out.......

    by centurycom Mar 16, 2016 12:53 PM
    johnford706 johnford706 Mar 17, 2016 7:56 AM Flag

    Well done, centurycom!

  • Reply to

    Bioscript this year...

    by jfrancisofsi Mar 16, 2016 8:16 PM
    johnford706 johnford706 Mar 17, 2016 7:24 AM Flag

    jfrancisofsi- I think it will be a tough sale , not sure what they will get. Trying to average down. Honestly, dont thinkthey will get more than $4 per share. Their PBM business sale was a major disappointment, they got only $25 million. Wall Street was expecting $50-60million. So that was a disaster in my opinion. Even though i am long, i dont have big hopes on this one. Made a big mistake of buying at a wrong time.

  • Reply to

    BIOS earnings today...

    by jfrancisofsi Mar 2, 2016 9:01 AM
    johnford706 johnford706 Mar 2, 2016 4:10 PM Flag

    i hope they dont announce a buyout because i paid lot more than the current price. I waiting to hear the turnaround has a firm footing and it is trending in the right direction before i can buy more shares.

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