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ImmunoGen, Inc. Message Board

johngunn51 5150 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 8, 2015 4:18 PM Member since: Mar 8, 1999
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  • johngunn51 by johngunn51 Jan 8, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Year to year same store sales drop, online sales increased but only because they were so low last year. I don't think the company is competitive in big store retail. Too much overhead, too much dead inventory, too many other places for people to shop. I just think it's a bad concept. As for the stock, given the debt load and the ongoing struggle to produce even meager profits there is no way to justify valuing it anything more than 5 or 6 bucks a share, that's more than fair, that's where it's probably going.

  • johngunn51 johngunn51 Dec 12, 2014 10:54 PM Flag

    As a retired analyst- retired because I was good and made a lot of money, I would remind you fbg that you never want to compare your valuation to a company that is overvalued. The overvalued usually comes down. That said, the market cap for Advaxis could be 500 mil or perhaps more in 24 months assuming the data for the Keytruda/Advaxis combination is compelling, which the scientists believe it will be. I think enough data will be available in 16-24 months to make Advaxis a hot buyout candidate. If I am one of Bristol Myers, Astra Zeneca or Merck and I have a PD1 candidate the efficacy of which is signicantly enhanced by combining it w Advaxis I am going to try to buy the company before the other two do. This could be really good for Advaxis and could take the take out market cap much higher.

  • johngunn51 johngunn51 Dec 12, 2014 8:48 PM Flag

    No the ADXS platform is not presently tailored to individual tumor genes in individual people. To take a tumor cell remove it, bio-engineer it and return it to each individual patient is prohibitively expensive and time consuming That is why Dendreon is going bankrupt. The Advaxis listeria platform is inexpensive, and production is higly scaleable w quick turnaround time. Yes all cancers have individual genomes but they also have common traits by types such as proteins, enzymes, kinases and checkpoint inhibitors. So far the Advaxis flagship product has been proven to aggressively attack HER2 positive genotypes which affects a very significant % of the overall population. Roche/Genentech/Immunogen's monoclonal antibody Kadcyla for example is now becoming the standard of care in breast cancer where the patient is HER2 positive, which is determined quickly by testing the patient, not the tumor. Sales of this drug for this one indication are running around $3billion annually. By combining Advaxis' off the shelf product w Merck's checkpoint inhibitor Keytruda, you could get as near as I can determine a 2X-3X increase in T, NK cell activity and tumor response rate. This is a very big deal. There is no question in my mind that the course Advaxis is on is the right way to go. Look for a buy-out within 2 years @ 20-25 per share, maybe more.

  • Reply to

    The real deal in diesel emissions control

    by evolutionisafact Dec 4, 2014 12:53 PM
    johngunn51 johngunn51 Dec 6, 2014 7:31 PM Flag

    The Tenneco system is big, complicated, and expensive. Tenneco makes their money in oil and gas pipelines not in CAFE standards equipment. There was a little tax lossing selling in CDTI last week. There was also some large volume buying. I truly believe this stock will fly next year.

  • Reply to

    I'm a buyer

    by billyteex1 Dec 2, 2014 10:32 AM
    johngunn51 johngunn51 Dec 2, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    I bought some yesterday. I think we have a little tax loss, a little market capitulation selling going on here. I'm sold on the zero PGM catalytic converter platform- as we can see w oil in the 60's internal combustion/diesel engines are back in vogue, they will go as far as emissions reduction technology will take them. If you look at the whole sustainability profile of PGM- the lifecycle from mining to exhaustion in catalytic converters- it's ugly.

  • Short positions have been building big the past few months just like short interest on the Airlines spiked right before 9/11 and it was proven after a determined effort by forensic accounting investigators that the Saudis had been using offshore decoy accounts to do it. I say blow the towelheads up! They talk outta both sides of their mouth and cannot be trusted AT ALL.

  • johngunn51 johngunn51 Nov 26, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    Camarillo State Mental Hospital was closed several years ago and converted into part of the Cal State University system. It's one of the nicest campuses in CA now. While I'm here, let me address the short interest blip this month. It's a small number and even post blip the SI is down 30% from early summer. The spike is temporary and caused by 2 factors- 1 the automatic short the Nasdaq 10 biggest daily gainer program used by some aggressive traders, and 2 frontrunning the expectation that the SA loan would be called. All this is presently being unwound and you can expect a dip in the end of month report and a return to the reductive SI trendline. Happy Thanksgiving ya'll and God bless!

  • johngunn51 by johngunn51 Nov 22, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    For $100 you can subpoena a shareholder's list and initiate a procedure to replace the board of directors with a new slate that will be less committed to nespotic management and more committed to increasing shareholder value.

  • johngunn51 johngunn51 Nov 22, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    The short interest is low. Nobody with any substantial net worth- fund or individual shorts this stock- which leaves the shorter profile to dilettantes and small potatos gamblers- with the exception of perhaps a hedger like a note holder to protect against a default. After this week's loan term amendment to 2016 those positions would most likely be covered and not be reinitiated until a spike in price/ due date approach.

  • Beyond just wanting to get away from the 8' snow. Dominican Republic bonds upgraded by Fitch's yesterday on dramatic rise in tourism and business traffic. And of course the buildout for the Olympics in Brazil is beginning. Best part for Jet Blue in all this- you can't drive there. My one year target for JB shares is 18-20 and 25-30 24 months out, esp if oil remains in the 75-85 range.

  • Reply to

    this is a P&D

    by dbtunr Nov 14, 2014 1:44 PM
    johngunn51 johngunn51 Nov 14, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    Look, I'm a marine biologist- I set up live reef sytems for people like Michael Bloomberg and I asked a client who runs a very successful hedge fund and graduated from UC as a chemical engineer to check this out for me.. He came back and said the technology seems to be an "exciting breakthrough" , that post loan amendment the company has enough cash to begin the Spinel commercialization stage. He listened to the conference call , said the CEO and CFO seemed "on the ball" He is prohibitied from buying microcaps for his clients, but he bought some for his own account yesterday and so did I. Gotta go DB, gotta get back to work.

  • Reply to

    this is a P&D

    by dbtunr Nov 14, 2014 1:44 PM
    johngunn51 johngunn51 Nov 14, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    Tesla was IPO'd specifically as a start-up with the intention of making a truly new automobile. Clean Diesel was an already public shell w an ongoing, if somewhat unexciting business. That original business as well as the people who ran it thru various iterations are in the history books. Think of it going forward as a start-up. There is a name change- a re-branding if you will- in the works, and what happened the past 4 years will be just a prologue in a very new book.

  • Reply to

    this is a P&D

    by dbtunr Nov 14, 2014 1:44 PM
    johngunn51 johngunn51 Nov 14, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    It's not a pump and dump. There is some pumping- necessary to gain traction for a transformative technology in a huge, slow-moving industry. There's no dumping. I don't really see it as any different from Tesla. Most folks scoffed the first couple of years when Elon Musk was telling everybody they were going to fundamentally advance the automobile industry and they were raising money. The scale of course is different w CDTI at this point but the premise of disruptive technology in the automobile industry is the same. I remember when Mr. Toyota- the CEO himself came to S.F. and Elon took him for a ride in a prototype Model S. The next thing you know, Toyota wrote a check for $50million and signed over the Fremont production plant which had been producing Toyotas to Elon to produce Teslas. Something similar will happen here, wait and see.

  • Reply to

    Baker Hughs

    by buy4adollasell42 Nov 14, 2014 8:59 AM
    johngunn51 johngunn51 Nov 14, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    I say odds someone tries to buy Superior will increase over time as DrillNReam tool becomes adopted. The IP is strong- unique tool that everyone who tries likes, kind of a monopoly in the making...

  • Very interesting. In light of the fact that the company should be EBITDA positive w DuraFit in 2015, it's unlikely that they will need to sell any more stock- unless they want to fast track commercial development of Spinel. So the value of the existing available shares increases. My guess is whoever bought the offering added some more this morning and may in fact be interested in a 13D stake. The single biggest problem with car/truck emissions control is the cost of the catalytic converter-pretty much everybody that owns a 100K+car or works on cars or smogs certificates cars has a catalytic converter gripe or eventually will. I did a quickie patent search- found the PGM from 2013 but not the new ones. If the IP is legit, this company and it's stockholders will be MAJOR winners.

  • Has anybody seen the patents?

  • johngunn51 johngunn51 Nov 5, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    I showed it to a guy from Cal Tech who is automotive engineer in Fremont. He used to work for Toyota and now works for Tesla.. He says "no way". Only rhodium will catalyze nitrogen oxide. He said at best this design may work for a few thousand miles and then "load up" and have to be replaced or recharged. Like I said the unnamed "investor" who shorted the stock on the "disruptive" press release and then was granted free warrants at a lower price to cover made a hundred grand up front and can afford to right off a big loss on the rest of it against income for tax purposes..

  • johngunn51 by johngunn51 Nov 4, 2014 8:43 PM Flag

    I would bet dollars to doughnuts, second thought, I bought a doughnut for $2 yesterday- anyway you get the idea. that the "investor", with whom this whole pump and dump was prior orchestrated, sold short 168,000 shares somewhere above 3.50 the day of "the PR Release" and then used the 1cent warrants grant to cover them- an immediate profit of 100grand. It's illegal of course, but it happens quite a bit. The director leaving at the same time no coincidence. A director to replace him from a mining company in Nevada w a less than stellar record of corporate governance also no coincidence. The Spinel technology, according to Lambert who has more school and papers on the subject than all the CDTI management combined, the amount of rhodium, palladium, platinum in catalytic converters is only about .5% and nothing including zirconium, lead, magnesium will convert NOX3- . Had the company run a profitable business, kept it's neck out of a noose, I would be inclined to take a wait and see approach on a new catalytic converter technology, despite the fact that the best organic chemists and automotive engineers in the world have been working on it fruitlessly for 30 years. But given the company's record, their human resources, and the tendency to overpromise to investors with extra checkbooks when people are chasing "story" stocks, I have a feeling this is not going to work out for retail investors.

  • They're getting way ahead of themselves saying airlines will go too far in adding capacity and that the oil price drop will be fleeting. Low oil 75-90 is here to stay. The U.S. is producing 9mil BPD and Canada 4.5 from existing developed shale fields- twice what they were producing just 5 years ago against a use rate of 19millionBPD that is stagnant to declining. This is a long term trend, not a blip. While it is true that shale wells have high decline rates, it's fairly easy and cheap to tie 15-25 of them into a single hub, and the supply of shale from already active deposits has an aggregate cost basis with current extraction methods of $40-45 per barrel so even at 75 everybody is making a good living and nobody shuts down. Who will shut down is subsalt, deepwater offshore and energy and labor intensive onshore- some of the tarsands. This may effect EXXON and ROYAL DUTCH and STATOIL AND PETROBRAS investments and developments. The supply demand situation will remain in parity around 80-85. And what is "too little too late"? One would think any self-respecting analyst, excuse the oxymoron, would reach a little further into Roget's to find a less abused cliche. I am a retired analyst and I became one because I wasn't judged good enough in math to be an engineer or good enough in English to be a writer, but If I were trying to hide that I was trying to influence the market on behalf of a hedge fund client who is stuck short with Jet Blue I would come up with something better. JetBlue is a good little company and they are growing rapidly and sustainable, IMO. I upgrade the stock to a Strong Buy with an $18-20 12 month target. People are flying again. It's a social phenomenon that is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

  • johngunn51 by johngunn51 Oct 28, 2014 2:25 AM Flag

    He has misled investors about GIG's prospects for 5 years, refused to conform to GAAP metrics in a hardware business where everyone else reputable does. And he has back-doored cash and cash from stock at every opportunity. He has probably put on his cleanest underwear and brushed his hair, and stifled his neurotic Hebrew accent to appear as attractive as possible to GSIT directors and the cash hoard on which they sit. . I'm not goin' for it and neither are the Asians.

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