Nothing is driving down oil but greed.
All these producers trying to pump out 100%+ production which is counter productive as it slashes their revenue by half. All they got to do is agree on 2-3% production cut and the problem is solved.
Well at this depressed level the valuation no longer makes sense.
Just ask how GDP's market cap can come close to EXXI?
at $5 it's cap would be about what EXXI was at $2.4 yesterday?
Well this will be on the assumption that the stock has bottomed or oil will be staging a rebound back above $75. Both OAS and SDRL fell to mid $10 yet OAS was back almost to $15 today while this gets stuck close to 52 week low. Hard to predict which oil stock will rebound from this point on the fastest but it would be good to see more TLM deals.
Unless EXXI management is misleading shareholders I expect the share to perform as follow based on oil price:
oil at $55 - $2-$2.5
oil at $50 - $1.5-$2
oil at $45 - $1-$1.5
oil at $60 - $3-$3.5
oil at $65 - $3.5-$4
oil at $70- $4-$5
Can't tell what the low will be with this vicious cycle but some of the selling doesn't make sense considering the backlog this company has for the next couple years and it doesn't really need oil to recover now but in a few months...
What's there to get excited about on a 12 cents dividend soon to be eliminated when you've lost over 90% on this stock?
I bought this around $15 so it's hard to share your enthusiasm. I mean even if this pops like GDP did three days in a row it'd be half of $15 which was already depressed compared to high of $27!
At this point it's all about survival and no one should be guessing or trying to pick a bottom on oil anymore. This is likened the financial crisis back in 2008-2009 when BofA got pushed down to $2. I remembered AVNR went down to 20-30 cents and DTG (dollar thrifty Automotive Group) under 50 cents but got bought out by Hertz later. So yeah you don't know how low these oil stocks will go and if they don't go to zero there's a chance they'll be back but who knows if it takes a year or 10 years...
Too many are calling for oil to rebound. I think the time for oil stock rebound is actually when crude moves side ways or dip a little yet the oil stocks refuses to go down any more. Also doesn't hedging impact their earnings? Essentially they are giving up the next couple years in order to survive the storm... Not ideal, but probably the right thing to do with this devious cycle.
Apparently another idiot making blind statement without understanding the question. The question is about profitability and survival, who was talking about Exxon controlling the oil market? Does Exxon has to do that to stay profitable at $40 a barrel? Save you self and stop acting like you know something lol.
Are you like #$%$? If you can't answer the question then don't post. The question is about how these other companies can survive against Exxon which can make $ at $40 a barrel. If they can't then they shouldn't be in this business.
Exxon just stated that they can be profitable at $40 a barrel so these companies been pilfering from consumers for years selling at $100+ a barrel. With such big fluctuation in oil prices over the years if the oil companies can't stay profitable at $30-$40 a barrel perhaps they shouldn't be in business.
This went as fast down from $3.7s back to $3 yesterday, pretty surprised that this is up so much with no news... Was just reading the sacks article. That is kind of bizarre, as I believe they've issued the same on EXXI or other oil numerous times already?
Since so many now are placing bets in this space for either bankruptcy or survival, let's talk about it. If the reserves of EXXI are as valuable as they say are the shareholders better off if they file bankruptcy soon and let's say after asset sales and paying off the creditors they may still have more than 350 mil left to pay the shareholders? Anything above 350 just tacks on the gains that the shareholders are getting at this level, can this happen or does bankruptcy spells the end for the longs?
The thing I want to know is how do they justify paying close to 15 percent dividend with the current situation? I can't see they keeping the divvy without some asset sales.
Lol the problem is they have 3b+ in debts. At this point the only thing that can excite investors if they are able to sell some of the assets that they say they were planning to do, otherwise 100M cash is really nothing when you have that much debt.
this now takes over 40% to just get back to $5 and even if it does not sure how many longs can get excited. At some point the addiction gotta stop seeing this going from 20's to 15, 11, 10, 8, 7,6,6,4,3...
Just crazy. When this was at 8 I had anticipated this to recover back to $10's to reduce my loss. Now with the drop below $5 those that bought at $15, $10 won't even break even if this doubles from this level which can take years if ever. So they say never catch a falling knife...