The only time you would speculate on something like this is to evaluate the risk vs reward scenario. What is the downside risk if the news is negative? Low $20's or mid $20's? Then even if the news is positive what is the impact that we know earnings coming up won't be pretty?
I can only dream this falls to $29 around 25% to replace SONS as number one loser today. The news on SONS is so much worse yet it rallied hard from 35% down.
They are holding on to lots of assets and do not have to sell the entire company to raise more capital to pay down more debt.
It may not matter if you looked at EXXI. It's in far worse shape with a huge debt to equity ratio yet the stock rallied from under $3 no matter what now.
This stock is trading as the Ocwen business has completely gone away. That may be true but they were supposed to diversify their business to not rely on Ocwen so much and if they can survive without it this is an easy double or triple when all dust settles.
If you google asps insider trading it will take you to the nasdaq link where it showed Cooperman sold hundreds of thousands of shares at $15-$16.
His track record as an investor should be good to be a billionaire but on this one no. I dumped at around $24 fortunately before earnings. I was going to hold through earnings but the date seemed delayed and didn't expect them to cancel the buybacks. Anyways this is starting to get into the territory of depressed level priced for possible bankruptcy. I mean this can even go to $5-$7 if they want to knock it down, but I'm accumulating starting at this price level.
Yeah I'm doing better than him on this security. He took a big loss selling at $15-$16 but at least it saved him another 20% slide from there. The question is if he continues to dump more at $12-$13 or that was the last wave of selling by him for now. I'm not getting too excited by the action but have started to accumulate starting today.
It's hard to imagine people selling at this level if they haven't at $20+ so this is probably due to the works of shorts. Selling at $12's is like those that sold SQM at low $15's only to see it snap back 20%. There's just no news to drive this down another 40% from $20. I guess the big uncertainty is how OCN impacts this company but if they can survive without it then holding at this level for long term may be worth it.
The news was out Mar 4 and they surprised investors by not follow through with the buyback which may be prudent for their survival. This only took about a 10% hit after the news but now has gone down 40% reacting to it for the past 2 weeks. Hate to be catching a falling knife and that's why I only bought 10% of it back below $13 today but you have to start wonder at what level is the bottom in? With daily downward movement it's certainly closer than 2 weeks ago...
Man look at how this is been driven down.
If this has gone 45-50% down from $25 in a single day even with bad news it would've at least have a dead cat bounce of 10-20% lol.
The way they are bringing this down there's just no buyers daring to step in now. This may even hit single digit like some on this board are saying now.
Man this has been going down from $25 to half in less than a month with not much news so it's hard to say when the bleeding stops. I only bought one tenth of what I had sold at $24 so I'm good for now and will see what happens next. No need to put all eggs in one basket as there are plenty of stocks that snap back much quickly than this one.
Man when I got out around $24 I left some money on the table when this went above $25 but now seeing this halved with no major news was too tempting to dive back in. Got back in a little bit at $12.98 and depending on this do may add if it continues to nosedive.
Who ever sold at that level today is going to have to live with that thought forever. On the other hand some may be due to forced margin selling as I've been liquidated before without knowing on margins.
I'm only trying to trade this as I no longer have faith in WS to hold long terms. Man this thing's been holding at $17 making it hard to get in again but perhaps fed statement coming up may move it again.
I do believe if the fine is levied out this will go up but a decision may take time to drag and I've got no patience for that.
I am not complaining. You should just take this opportunity to make some money if you believe this is insane price action getting driven lower.
I already made couple trades on this and even though I sold a bit too early at $16.35 I'm still happy!