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Asia Entertainment & Resources Message Board

johnmassey44 46 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 12:25 PM Member since: Nov 8, 2011
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  • Reply to

    comments about competition

    by johnmassey44 Jul 9, 2014 7:37 PM
    johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 11, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    As I said, the information you seek is available to you if you want to take the time to read the HK listing application, as I have.
    You still haven't proved a thing except that you are finding out saying you have is much harder than actually doing so.

  • Reply to

    comments about competition

    by johnmassey44 Jul 9, 2014 7:37 PM
    johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 10, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    I will tell you this much though. Pretty much all those answers can be found in the HK listing application/prospectus, which I have already read through. Go for it bro. I'd be glad to help you with any addition or subtraction equation problems you have.

  • Reply to

    comments about competition

    by johnmassey44 Jul 9, 2014 7:37 PM
    johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 10, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    How sad, and revealing, it is that you are so ignorant about the questions you asked and yet still claim to be knowledgeable about IKGH. The answers to these questions are available from information IKGH has published. All it takes is a little research on your part. If you are too lazy to do it that's your problem. The questions I was talking about are more subjective in nature, not how much is 2+2 though I have no doubt you struggle with that as well.

  • Reply to

    comments about competition

    by johnmassey44 Jul 9, 2014 7:37 PM
    johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 10, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    BTW, Bain just took down MPEL's Q2 EBITDA by around $30M. Know why? Of course you don't. Low hold for the quarter!!!!!!!! You know, the phenomenon that amazes you each time it big companies and small ones. Gosh, what a dope.

  • Reply to

    comments about competition

    by johnmassey44 Jul 9, 2014 7:37 PM
    johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 10, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    Do you also make predictions about whether it will rain after you look out the window and the see the puddles forming? Gosh, what a dope.

  • Reply to

    comments about competition

    by johnmassey44 Jul 9, 2014 7:37 PM
    johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 10, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    As I said I was reacting to the article that appeared on MacauBusiness's site, trying to spare you the embarrassment of humiliating yourself again by another display of your abject ignorance of all things Macau.
    But, alas, your self imposed humiliation continues. PREDICTING they would lose money? That's a good one after EVERYONE who can count to 5 knew they were losing money since they publish the hold % each month. Of course you don't know how much they lost because counting to 5 is your limit.

    So once again I'll make the generous offer of answering any questions you may have about Macau
    since all one has to do is read your posts in order to see just how uninformed you are.

  • johnmassey44 by johnmassey44 Jul 9, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    I thought I would get out ahead on this to save mm the trouble of embarrassing himself again. A few of the media sites covering Macau gaming quoted management recently saying Macau's upcoming expansion could hurt their business. Anyone who has read the application knows it was mentioned there as standard "risk factor" language all companies are required to include in a prospectus. Basically it means more rooms opening is going to spread players over those rooms potentially reducing IKGH's RCT despite expectations that VIP play will increase due to pent up demand. I could write a lengthy post about this but the best thing to do is go back and listen to the Q4 call, specifically the answer given to Bain on how they will position themselves for the casino openings.

  • johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 8, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    If anyone else but you had written that I'd be thinking to myself, "this guy can't be that stupid can he?" But I already know the answer to that is yes. Let me put this in as simplistic terms as I can make it. Never mind Neptune is a junket investor not a junket company, that they don't control the operations of the junkets they invest in, that they are massively in debt, all the things I've already explained to you. Consider they would have to go from $37M USD in profit to $430M USD just to earn $0.10 USD. Now do you understand Neptune's p/e is virtually MEANINGLESS? Surely even you can comprehend that concept. Can't you?

    BTW, I know you're not exactly a math wiz (or a wiz at anything) but as I have explained to you before you can not rely on other people's numbers. IKGH's 12 month trailing p/e is 6.54. Didn't you already make that mistake once?

    Yes, Q2 was a very unlucky quarter. Hold was 2.17. They lost money, probably around, well, I'm sure you have figured it out by now. That's the nature of gaming. But don't look for the divi to be reduced. I think they'll pay the same $0.08 payment they made last year and see what happens for the rest of the year.

  • johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 7, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    Okay, I checked it out. Neptune has more debt than cash, IKGH has over $200M in cash. One of Neptune's owners was detained on suspicion of money laundering not too long ago, IKGH's reputation is spotless. IKGH has now been audited by two accounting firms with Rothchild having spent 7 months going over their books, interviewing concessionaires, interviewing agents......could Neptune withstand such scrutiny? Neptune has 4.6B, that's B as in BILLION shares outstanding so it would take a tremendous amount of profit to come through to the bottom line, IKGH has just 60M. That much larger junket you referred to made just $37M USD in profit last year or $0.008 USD in EPS. Neptune is an investor in junket operator profits, among other business operations, IKGH is a junket operator. IKGH gives RCT and win rate visibility every month, Neptune does not. IKGH's financial statements allows everyone to clearly see what the internal finances look like, not so with Neptune.

    Neptune, a superior junket company? That kind of thinking is what has earned you the well deserved reputation as a know nothing fool.

  • johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 7, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    To which you will ask, why haven't they been asked to run a new room. The answer is, we don't know they haven't. But with the pending HK application and their general attitude towards credit greater exposure to default risk is the last thing they want.

  • johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 7, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    Except that casino management understands some degree of conservatism is called for and is industry wide. If any of the concessionaires hosting IKGH thought they were mis-managing their business they would be asked to leave.
    Furthermore, credit extension is only one component of the decision to invite a junket to run a room. The promoter's reputation in the industry is more important now than ever as concessionaires do a dance for the Japanese, not wanting to have any headline risk of shady dealings at this point in the process. The size and type of the promoter's agent base, their geograph reach, the amount of cage capital a promoter can offer, management's experience, all these things are weighed.

  • johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 7, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    Good move. You lost the argument so change the subject. You said VIP was dead, it isn't.
    IKGH's growth from here will depend on the continued success of their cash agent initiative and whether they buy another room or get invited to run one. Also on whether credit play makes a comeback as that will not only make them a more attractive partner but also grow their cash reserves for future acquisitions.

  • johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 5, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    The reason it is so easy to humiliate you is in most cases you do it to yourself.

    "I can't stress enough, VIP is dead,"

    Recognize that? After having written it you now are forced to take the laugh out loud stupid position that 11% CAGR isn't good. Sounds a lot better than "dead." A statement you wouldn't have made if you had any idea VIP would continue to grow. But then to know that means you'd have to have some understanding of the Macau gaming market, which as we see over and over you clearly don't.

    Like I said before, stop embarrassing yourself and just ask me when you have a question about Macau. Though I must say I've been schooling you for a long time and you still appear to be a bit slow. Are you learning disabled?

  • johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 4, 2014 8:01 PM Flag

    Union Gaming estimates that VIP gaming revenue in Macau will reach approximately HK$349 billion in 2017, which represents a CAGR of 11% from 2014 to 2017. According to Union Gaming, in order to achieve this growth rate, both VIP gaming promoters and casinos need to expand their focus and extend their marketing reach into previously under-penetrated parts of mainland China.

    BOOM, nitwit.

  • Reply to

    about that "motherload of dilution" lie

    by johnmassey44 Jun 28, 2014 10:27 AM
    johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 3, 2014 7:54 AM Flag

    And you know I could go back and copy many lies you have told about IKGH and its management. Quite a few that you are still telling.

  • johnmassey44 johnmassey44 Jul 2, 2014 10:43 PM Flag

    "How can it be possible that I can be right and he can be wrong so often????"

    It can't be, and you aren't.

    Those of us who know Macau's history, and therefore knew a similar reduction in VIP happened in 2010 during the last WC, were not surprised by the decline this time around, as you apparently were.

    Neither are you aware, apparently, that IKGH's YoY RCT is up 12%. A better growth number than VIP on the whole.

    The other thing knowledge of Macau affords me, but not you, is knowing hold varies. I don't think you appreciate what a clown act you make yourself look like when you post, in upper case font, that IKGH loses money during a low hold month. I'm embarrassed for you to have to point out all the concessionaires typically report "hold adjusted" numbers each quarter. Meaning hold goes up and down, or is that too much for you to

    Tell ya what, rather than humiliate yourself repeatedly from now on when you have questions about Macau just ask me. There is more shame in pretending to understand things than admitting you don't.

  • Pretending IKGH and Neptune are comparable is just another lame attempt at fear mongering by MM. It's pretty much all he does and all he knows how to do.

    Neptune is not a junket promoter company, Neptune is an investor in the profit interests of junket promoter companies, like IKGH. Neptune has a track record of shady dealings, IKGH does not. Neptune recently reported a very large portion of their outstanding debt has been outstanding for more than 90 days, this is not the case with IKGH as they run their company more conservatively. Neptune has billions of shares outstanding so increased profits have virtually no impact to earnings. IKGH has roughly 60M shares outstanding, has a share buyback program, and will not make a dilutive offering (remember they only did the right offering because it was necessary to list in HK and they gave investors the opportunity not to be diluted by buying shares at a discount). Neptune no doubt hit a new low (if it did, I haven't checked, and MM can not be trusted to tell the truth) because of slow to negative VIP growth while IKGH's RCT has shown very good YoY growth and they have significantly increased the velocity of cage cap from last year.

    The bottom line, I'm not sure if MM lies out of stupidity or malace (sometimes it's both) but I do know what he says is wrong 99% of the time.

  • go to ikghboard



    All you get over there are the facts.

  • Right after they authorized the issuance of more shares at the shareholder meeting last year you started claiming a hugely dilutive issuance was coming in HK, clearly implying it was connected to the listing there. Now we know, as I have been saying all along, the listing will be by introduction.......meaning no share issuance.
    My understanding about the reason for the authorization was they were advised by their investment bank they might want to have the option to split shares prior to the HK listing. This in order to reduce the stock price, making it more attractive to HK investors who apparently prefer lower priced shares.
    So now you are still claiming they are going to massively dilute shares at a future date. I say they will not.

    We both know I'll be proven right about this but it is a claim you can keep making as it remains a theoretical possibility.

  • johnmassey44 by johnmassey44 Jun 28, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    First he posts this dire looking headline, based on an analyst's comments, trying to scare people.

    "*The new visa restriction is likely to mostly affect only junkets* Barrons"

    Then after I ask him to explain how the new visa rule will effect junkets, a question he can't answer (but assumed was true due to only possessing a superficial knowledge of how Macau gaming works), he realizes he has been humiliated again so he starts to backtrack and writes this..........

    "It's nothing major, I even stated that it was being blown out of proportion by the media."

    That is what capitulation looks like.

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