why is it so difficult to see the truth? All you have to do is sell RIG and buy ESV,ATW and sleep better. I'm just trying to help sheesh. If oil goes to $75 bbl then rig will go up. I hope it does for everyone involved.
I do not own RIG, I own 2000 shares of ESV at a price of 25.15. I will probably buy ATW 1000 shares at the open or by selling puts at 32 strike.
I was a RIG long for the past few months and was all for the company but wow..... something is going on here. 0.44 for 2016 IF that happens RIG will be under 12 if not 10. Will that happen? If oil goes up it will not but if oil stays around 50 I guess it will. So many better drillers are out there. ATW and ESV are extremely cheap and on better financial footing also.
In conclusion to my findings I would place a sell on RIG (many reasons but the .44 for 2016 is dismal)
I would place a hold on SDRL (Only reason this is not a buy is their debt load)
I would place a hold on DO (Good balance sheet compared to others but .90 for 2016?)
I would place a buy on NE (Debt is ok divi is good but if oil stays down they will cut it and we all know what happens at that point)
I would place a buy on ORIG (debt is ok, same problem with the dividend as NE... it's good while it lasts then it turns on the PPS but 7.6 is a buy)
I would place a strong buy on ESV (already cut their divi, 3.50 for 2016 is nice and 24 pps is crazy cheap, also best rigs in the business helps)
I would place a strong buy on ATW (good balance sheet, good debt levels, ok divi, $5+ for 2016 is nice, at $30 it is cheap)
There is a fine line somewhere for the Saudis to retain market share, keep the shale drillers depressed, and still make maximum profit. I bet that line is $70 bbl.
You can see them get concerned around $40 and they seem nervous around $50. I bet $60 is a good place for them and $70 is perfect. I bet we stay between $50 and $70 for a while.
Back then though the float was only 141M shares vs the 234M now. Also they had net cash of +400M vs net cash of -4600M now. Book value now is 3 x what it was then however or about 10B more so I guess they put the 5B to good use.
I did my work and I don't see it. That is why I am asking for you to enlighten me.
Rig is up 9%. Esv was just like RIG and way better than SDRL. Only thing new to Esv is the dividend cut which should be an assumed and should be viewed positively. We will see.
Goodwill is junk on their balance sheet from previous acquisitions etc. They, along with all the drillers are writing off their goodwill. It is not coming from their cash.
That is positive. Can't you guys see all the drillers are using this downturn to clear up their balance sheets? This report wasn't bad. The dividend cut is a good thing going forward. I don't own any yet but if they sell this off ill buy some in the am.