I'm all for hearing both sides of an argument, but my problem with AF is that he's got a wide audience that he's able to manipulate. Nothing of the same exists on the long side. Seeking Alpha articles are just not the same as the effect that AF has. It's very unfair.
What completely baffles me is why insiders have bought the #$%$ out of this stock over the past year. I don't care how rich you are, nobody wants to lose money. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that the richer one is, the more they DON'T want to lose money. So what gives here? The most recent insider buys weren't that long ago. They would have known the cash situation back than and that it's getting dire. Because of this they would know that the market would react unfavourably once it finds out. So why do they keep buying? It makes absolutely no sense to me.
I think if we see positive PTSD results we will see it move back up towards Fibro. I don't think we'll see a 100%+ spike, which is something we would have seen a year ago. Hell, a year ago we'd probably see this move 400% on positive PTSD based on chasers and the low float.
It doesn't matter. This isn't going anywhere until they pass or fail the trials. Until then, it's just stuck in the mud. If the market keeps tanking, look for it to make new 52-week lows. Even positive trials results will have a muted affect on the share price in this kind of market.
The entire sector looks like #$%$ right now so it's hard to imagine this behaving differently just because ASCO is approaching. Not to mention that bios are a different beast this year than they have been the last few years. We're just not seeing the same sentiment and they seem to be falling a bit back to earth.
I'm not disagreeing that Fibro has a good chance to succeed. I'm just saying that after two failed trials in a year I wouldn't be surprised to see a very muted run-up to Fibro results.
I think we see the data second half of the month. No reason for that other than a hunch. I think mixed results will still result in the share price being crushed. Chalk that reasoning up to having already failed a trial this year and following it up with another trial that means that either a) it needs to be modified and ran again or b) the mixed results don't show anything positive enough for them to continue which means they'll cancel it as well as the tension headache trial. Bottom line, a mixed or fail result in PTSD will be crippling, in my opinion. You have people claiming that Fibro is practically in the bag but you have to wonder how many people are going to take a risk and buy this for the Fibro results based on two previous trial failures in a year.