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IMAX Corporation Message Board

jonas_tyrell 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 8, 2015 2:07 AM Member since: Mar 8, 2012
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  • jonas_tyrell jonas_tyrell Jan 8, 2015 2:07 AM Flag

    I owe you an apology TRG_1234, and to the rest of the board for spreading misinformation. I don't have an overly large position in any one stock, so I've been for the most part a spectator on the EXAS board and did not take an avid interest in learning about the company and it's revolutionary medical technology until after the FDA/CMS approval had occurred. Still I've enjoyed an excellent return on capital thus far and I am in no way suggesting that this is a time to take profit. Actually, quite to the contrary.. Due to my late entry into the stock however, I am not one of the most informed people here and it's likely that I'm guilty of getting too much of my information from the board instead of from the company's website and/or legitimate, vetted commentary in the financial community. I'm not certain where I got the impression that the company was reaching out to GI's and failing to educate the PCP out there, but let it be known, I stand corrected and now admit that I was under a false perception and worse - spreading it.

    Thank you for setting me straight. It's actually a win win for me as this is what I would have hoped for the company in the first place. I am encouraged by this news and have raised expectations that the upcoming JPM conference along with the quarterly conference call (next week?) will bring fresh company news of further market penetration and a successful deployment of CEO Conroy's sales strategy.
    My sentiment indicator says it all. Need I say more?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • -without much known resistance.
    Nobody knows, but the buyer of 5000 Jan 27 calls at .62c has made a bet costing well over a couple of hundred thousand that next Thursdays JPM conference is going to reveal some tasty tid bits that will drive this stock past 27.62 before the next 2 days are done.

  • jonas_tyrell jonas_tyrell Jan 6, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    It has occurred to me, that the focus of marketing for this test should be upon the "Primary Care" Docs who work at the big HMO and PPO organizations. In practice, I believe that the GI Doc will come AFTER a positive test result as ordered by the PC docs- not prior. It's ludicrous to think that we are limited to the number of GI physicians out there when it's actually many, MANY times that number upon full immersion. I think we are being done a disservice by those who would profess otherwise. In 2014 it has been estimated that there were roughly 425,000 primary care physicians in the USA. Upon full market penetration, were only 50% of these doctors endorse cologuard as a pre requisite to colonoscopy and write a scant 10 prescriptions per year, we are looking at 212,500 x 10 or 2,125,000 per year x 492.00 equates to 1,045,000,000 or just over 1 Billion Dollars per year. With 85 million shares outstanding the implication is 12.30c per share. Employing the concept of relative valuation utilizing the market cap and metrrics enjoyed by a similar company whose primary focus is diagnostic medicine through blood, as opposed to stool, I have chosen ILMN. KC, the CEO of Exas has been on occasion compared to JF of Illumina in both temperament and business style. The similarities don't end there either. Currently ILMN sports a trailing PE near 100x earnings with a current forward PE of 60. If one were to assume 1 Billion in sales for EXAS within 3 years (as illustrated), we can safely project a price per share of - well Im too embarrassed to post it. People will call me crazy. You do the math (it is astronomical by comparison). With projected earnings within 10% of where ILMN's currently stands and over 50% FEWER shares outstanding EXAS looks to be a behemoth in the making that will easily rival ILMN. ILMN currently trades at 188.31 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jonas_tyrell jonas_tyrell Jan 4, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    This is "brinkmanship" on the part of the insurance carriers pure and simple. IMO the EXAS management team would be wise to call their bluff and hold out for this very cost effective (twice challenged) pricing model (in this final $492 iteration) I think the Healthnets of the world were in shock when CMS figures came in supporting a lifetime cost/benefit ratio strongly supporting the targeted $500. Now that it has been disputed and more or less one (give or take 3-4%), EXAS has a clear victory here and it won't take long before the big health insurers adopt coverage - or start losing customers, and I mean BIG customers. No employer is going to embrace higher insurance premiums without questioning their insurance company's myopic balance sheet; an outright FAILURE in this regard.

    On the issue of last weeks decline during a year end holiday week and on weak volume? My opinion is that it couldn't have come at a better time and is in fact quite healthy in forming the incremental basing that will see us into the triple digits once we see the color green upon the EXAS balance sheet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jonas_tyrell by jonas_tyrell Dec 29, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    Where's our cheerleading fibonacci guy today??
    29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62 29.62
    Come on 29.62 !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jonas_tyrell jonas_tyrell Nov 20, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    Wouldn't it make sense for ILMN to just purchase the tiny SQNM (by comparison) for the insignificant sum their market cap now represents x say, 3 or 4? It really isn't that much money anymore to a company of this size and they would certainly stand to benefit in owning or having alliances with the best in breed as well as their patent troll counterpart competitors.

  • jonas_tyrell jonas_tyrell Nov 14, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    Not true, the demand for ILMN sequencers will DEFINITELY go DOWN once these cheap Edico systems hit the market. Not everyone needs a gas guzzling hummer when a cheaper and more importantly MUCH FASTER MiniCooper will do the job just fine.

  • IF management gives us the proper guidance (confirming the momentum that I believe is already out there), we could have a very nice 2014 year end indeed. The migration to VOIP is still in it's infancy and STILL the number one concern of the LTE and Cellular carriers (Think ATT and Verizon) as this is a must if their over crowded networks are going to be able to expand - rest assured it WILL BE VOIP to the rescue. There just is not enough bandwidth otherwise. Latency is still the big bugaboo, but AUDC seems to have conquered that obstacle better than her peers.
    It won't come all at once, but coverage by just 2 or more large brokerage houses will finally put this stock on the map in a big way, with far higher share prices to reflect this reality in short order. Perhaps well into the double digits this spring. My fingers are crossed. This is my humble opinion only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell within your portfolio. We all need to have and maintain our own defined level of risk.

32.06+0.27(+0.85%)Jan 23 4:02 PMEST

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