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Terex Corporation Message Board

jonathan.loewer 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 11, 2015 5:23 PM Member since: Apr 26, 2010
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  • Reply to

    new high tomorrow on the way to 60s

    by raggwead Feb 11, 2015 4:50 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Feb 11, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    Yep, this is a stock to hold and enjoy: those who bought at over $120 ($60 after the split), and sold at the low in the $30s gave up on a good profitable company. Those of us that jumped in down in the $30s can sit back and enjoy the ride the rest of the way up back to the previous highs.

  • jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Feb 3, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    I am going to ring the register now and lock in my 75% gain. I was investing based on merger hopes, and Office Depot/Office Maxx and Staples are now in talks. So I will sell since it's up on the rumor.

  • jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Feb 3, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    Sie haben gut gemacht, Sammler! I hope you're still long the stock. I am going to sell now and take my large gain and move on. There may be even more value to pull out if they do merge, but I have almost doubled my money. Hope you're in the position for the same.

  • Reply to

    Fundamental Valuation for AEO

    by jonathan.loewer Jan 22, 2011 2:25 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Jan 14, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    It's been almost four years since my original post on this string, and almost five years of being long this stock. I'm just posting to bump this back to the top of the string, and emphasize that dividends investing is still the way to go. Also, as gas prices fall, this stock should rise, as lower fuel costs increase margins and cheaper gas brings out more apparel shoppers.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Keep Whole Foods in the matress!

    by georgesickler Nov 6, 2014 10:06 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Jan 12, 2015 6:00 PM Flag

    WFM continues higher yet. I think the bears started finding other plays; we could get a small squeeze over the next day or two. Over the longer term, Whole Foods is a great company to own here. I am letting this one ride because I expect higher highs and higher lows. It is, and will continue to, be a bullish chart and a growing company.

  • Reply to

    Sycamore is smart.... I think

    by marsandbars Dec 8, 2014 10:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 8, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    From a technical aspect, there are no support levels that are holding. It just keeps making new low after new low. With regards to apparel retail overall, the whole sector is getting battered. If I had to buy any shopping mall retailer at all, I do like GES, AEO, and maybe ANF on another leg down of a few more percentage points drop. Both Guess and American Eagle dropped 10% and 15% after their quarterly reports. These drops have brought their dividends to 4.5% and 4.15%; remember, dividends are taxed at a lower rate than capital gains sales.

  • Reply to

    Sycamore is smart.... I think

    by marsandbars Dec 8, 2014 10:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 8, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Sycamore is smart. They are too smart to add more common stock shares. They will only offer high-interest rate loans with secured collateral that will ensure that they at least get pennies-on-the-dollar back in case of bankruptcy; also, the should demand a preferred stock that pays a dividend and, likewise, preferred stock shareholders are front of the common-stock holders in lien position. The preferred dividend would eat profits right out from under the commons. That's the advantage of being in a position of bargaining power when whom you're bargaining with has little liquidity at the time of negotiation.

  • Reply to

    Go ahead and sell

    by prudentvoice Dec 4, 2014 1:30 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 8, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    They did. Down another 10% on heavy volume.

  • Reply to

    BK for AEO?

    by zombies_were_people Dec 5, 2014 12:27 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 5, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Yeah, it's bankruptcy time. Companies that have $3.30 per share in cash-on-hand and no long-term debt, and at the same time continue to earn enough profit to pay their four-plus-percent dividend yield without dipping into their pile of cash are ripe for bankruptcy. (rolls eyes) Keep trying, Zombie; we're all hoping to get our hands on cheaper shares.

    As a side note, a bankruptcy by Aeropostale, Wet Seal, or another struggling teen apparel retailer will really help this stock by the decrease in the number of competitors.

  • Reply to

    Going Private

    by irenebassem Dec 4, 2014 1:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Also, keep in mind that these PE firms now have a lot of deals out there: GES, AEO, EXPR, ANF, and FRAN are all at 52-week lows, however they're all still profitable, unlike ARO. Those are better buys. Also, PSUN and TLYS are two retailers that surprised and their stocks popped more than 10%. These private equity firms could come after them for about the same price and have a lot less "fixing up" to do.

  • Reply to

    Going Private

    by irenebassem Dec 4, 2014 1:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 9:21 PM Flag

    because lines of credit are in front of common stockholders in the lien position line. Common stock holders can win the most (bond holders and credit holders just get their rate of return promised to them, but stocks can go up forever), but they're the ones who end up getting nothing when the debt holders come to collect.

  • Reply to

    4.5% Dividend and $5.50 in Cash-on-Hand

    by jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 3:31 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    All of retail has been getting slammed this week: ARO, EXPR, ASNA, AEO, JCP, CBK, JOEZ, and WTSL. Investors have just been getting away from retail altogether, especially any retailer in shopping malls. I think over time it will get back toward the old highs providing outsized gains plus a good dividend while investors wait.

  • The company earned 24 cents profit and will pay out 22.5 cents in dividends this quarter. That means the company will throw a few more pennies onto its pile of cash. The stock is down 10% to a new low, but that has increased the dividend to 4.5%. This is a fine entry point for a long-term investor that wants dividends and growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Go ahead and sell

    by prudentvoice Dec 4, 2014 1:30 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Guys like this said that after ARO's fall from $20 to $15. Then new investors jumped in after the fall from $15 to $12. Again, a new batch of investors showed up and said that after the fall from $12 to $10. Months later, they all disappeared. Then new investors jumped in and said the same thing after the fall from $10 to $7.25. A few months later, a new batch of ARO investors patted themselves on the back for getting in at $6. Nobody's heard from them since. But that's alright, because a whole bunch of new people came in at $4--plus a few bitter ones that hung around from higher prices--and were excited about getting in on the bottom. For the last couple months they've patiently waited while this stock sat in the 'low-threes' waiting for the stock to get back above $4, and continue higher. Well, you see the high volume today?... That's them all throwing in the towel, and folding their cards and giving up their poker chips.... But that's alright, because Prudentvoice is here to assure you that this is the real bottom.

  • Reply to

    Go ahead and sell

    by prudentvoice Dec 4, 2014 1:30 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Guys like this said that after ARO's fall from $20 to $15. Then new investors jumped in after the fall from $15 to $12. Again, a new batch of investors showed up and said that after the fall from $12 to $10. Months later, they all disappeared. Then new investors jumped in and said the same thing after the fall from $10 to $7.25. A few months later, a new batch of ARO investors patted themselves on the back for getting in at $6. Nobody's heard from them since. But that's alright, because a whole bunch of new people came in at $4--plus a few bitter ones that hung around from higher prices--and were excited about getting in on the bottom. For the last couple months they've patiently waited while this stock sat in the 'low-threes' waiting for the stock to get back above $4, and continue higher. Well, you see the high volume today?... That's them all throwing in the towel, and folding their cards and giving up their poker chips.... But that's alright, because Prudentvoice is here to assure you that this is the real bottom.

  • Reply to

    Going Private

    by irenebassem Dec 4, 2014 1:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    This isn't a fad or a short-term blip. This is the long-term degradation of the shopping mall itself. In the 70s and 80 shopping malls popped up everywhere, and they had a great run for 30+ years. Now, shopping malls are looking like ghost towns, and only the best (malls, and stores within those malls) will survive. In order for the better retailers (the stocks worth over $1.5B) to survive, a lot of the weaker ones (the stocks worth $500mm or less) will finally need to go bankrupt and shutter their doors. There is too much competition between them and they are constantly offering Black-Friday-type deals all year round, cutting out each other's profit. Every clothing store in the mall has had signs in the window that say "SALE! 30-50% OFF!" for the last couple years. They're just cutting each other at the knees, and they'll keep doing it until some of the weaker players leave the table.

  • Reply to

    ARO is Not Cheap Yet

    by jonathan.loewer Aug 3, 2012 1:27 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Just coming back to emphasize just how long some of these stocks can fall. When they break down, they stay broken down, and sometimes even fall more precipitously. That is why bottom-fishing usually fails as an investment strategy. I am still bearish two-and-a-half years later.

  • jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Yes, I hope it shows up tonight, too. I am a little worried about tonight though since many of the retailers reporting this week have gotten battered (GES down 8%, EXPR down 10%, ARO down 22%, JCP down 12%, and many other retailers have been falling based on those results plus news that Black Friday wasn't so great). We'll see in a few hours. Of course, AEO is in good shape because it has cash-on-hand and, like you said, they have stayed on top of inventory, keep costs down, and shutter unprofitable locations.

  • jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    I agree. I really like their store layout and clothing for the fall and winter season. I just hope that ANF's and ARO's results aren't a pre-cursor of AEO's. PSUN had a good quarter with positive comps again, so hopefully AEO will also have similar comp increases. I'm right there with you in the same boat: Long 800 at 14.19. I've traded around a core position since 2011 buying more when it fell and selling them off when it rose, but always kept at least 100 shares since 2011.

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