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Barnes & Noble, Inc. Message Board

jonathan.loewer 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 8, 2014 1:15 PM Member since: Apr 26, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Sycamore is smart.... I think

    by marsandbars Dec 8, 2014 10:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 8, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    From a technical aspect, there are no support levels that are holding. It just keeps making new low after new low. With regards to apparel retail overall, the whole sector is getting battered. If I had to buy any shopping mall retailer at all, I do like GES, AEO, and maybe ANF on another leg down of a few more percentage points drop. Both Guess and American Eagle dropped 10% and 15% after their quarterly reports. These drops have brought their dividends to 4.5% and 4.15%; remember, dividends are taxed at a lower rate than capital gains sales.

  • Reply to

    Sycamore is smart.... I think

    by marsandbars Dec 8, 2014 10:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 8, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Sycamore is smart. They are too smart to add more common stock shares. They will only offer high-interest rate loans with secured collateral that will ensure that they at least get pennies-on-the-dollar back in case of bankruptcy; also, the should demand a preferred stock that pays a dividend and, likewise, preferred stock shareholders are front of the common-stock holders in lien position. The preferred dividend would eat profits right out from under the commons. That's the advantage of being in a position of bargaining power when whom you're bargaining with has little liquidity at the time of negotiation.

  • Reply to

    Go ahead and sell

    by prudentvoice Dec 4, 2014 1:30 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 8, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    They did. Down another 10% on heavy volume.

  • Reply to

    BK for AEO?

    by zombies_were_people Dec 5, 2014 12:27 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 5, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Yeah, it's bankruptcy time. Companies that have $3.30 per share in cash-on-hand and no long-term debt, and at the same time continue to earn enough profit to pay their four-plus-percent dividend yield without dipping into their pile of cash are ripe for bankruptcy. (rolls eyes) Keep trying, Zombie; we're all hoping to get our hands on cheaper shares.

    As a side note, a bankruptcy by Aeropostale, Wet Seal, or another struggling teen apparel retailer will really help this stock by the decrease in the number of competitors.

  • Reply to

    Going Private

    by irenebassem Dec 4, 2014 1:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Also, keep in mind that these PE firms now have a lot of deals out there: GES, AEO, EXPR, ANF, and FRAN are all at 52-week lows, however they're all still profitable, unlike ARO. Those are better buys. Also, PSUN and TLYS are two retailers that surprised and their stocks popped more than 10%. These private equity firms could come after them for about the same price and have a lot less "fixing up" to do.

  • Reply to

    Going Private

    by irenebassem Dec 4, 2014 1:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 9:21 PM Flag

    because lines of credit are in front of common stockholders in the lien position line. Common stock holders can win the most (bond holders and credit holders just get their rate of return promised to them, but stocks can go up forever), but they're the ones who end up getting nothing when the debt holders come to collect.

  • Reply to

    4.5% Dividend and $5.50 in Cash-on-Hand

    by jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 3:31 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    All of retail has been getting slammed this week: ARO, EXPR, ASNA, AEO, JCP, CBK, JOEZ, and WTSL. Investors have just been getting away from retail altogether, especially any retailer in shopping malls. I think over time it will get back toward the old highs providing outsized gains plus a good dividend while investors wait.

  • The company earned 24 cents profit and will pay out 22.5 cents in dividends this quarter. That means the company will throw a few more pennies onto its pile of cash. The stock is down 10% to a new low, but that has increased the dividend to 4.5%. This is a fine entry point for a long-term investor that wants dividends and growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Go ahead and sell

    by prudentvoice Dec 4, 2014 1:30 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Guys like this said that after ARO's fall from $20 to $15. Then new investors jumped in after the fall from $15 to $12. Again, a new batch of investors showed up and said that after the fall from $12 to $10. Months later, they all disappeared. Then new investors jumped in and said the same thing after the fall from $10 to $7.25. A few months later, a new batch of ARO investors patted themselves on the back for getting in at $6. Nobody's heard from them since. But that's alright, because a whole bunch of new people came in at $4--plus a few bitter ones that hung around from higher prices--and were excited about getting in on the bottom. For the last couple months they've patiently waited while this stock sat in the 'low-threes' waiting for the stock to get back above $4, and continue higher. Well, you see the high volume today?... That's them all throwing in the towel, and folding their cards and giving up their poker chips.... But that's alright, because Prudentvoice is here to assure you that this is the real bottom.

  • Reply to

    Go ahead and sell

    by prudentvoice Dec 4, 2014 1:30 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Guys like this said that after ARO's fall from $20 to $15. Then new investors jumped in after the fall from $15 to $12. Again, a new batch of investors showed up and said that after the fall from $12 to $10. Months later, they all disappeared. Then new investors jumped in and said the same thing after the fall from $10 to $7.25. A few months later, a new batch of ARO investors patted themselves on the back for getting in at $6. Nobody's heard from them since. But that's alright, because a whole bunch of new people came in at $4--plus a few bitter ones that hung around from higher prices--and were excited about getting in on the bottom. For the last couple months they've patiently waited while this stock sat in the 'low-threes' waiting for the stock to get back above $4, and continue higher. Well, you see the high volume today?... That's them all throwing in the towel, and folding their cards and giving up their poker chips.... But that's alright, because Prudentvoice is here to assure you that this is the real bottom.

  • Reply to

    Going Private

    by irenebassem Dec 4, 2014 1:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    This isn't a fad or a short-term blip. This is the long-term degradation of the shopping mall itself. In the 70s and 80 shopping malls popped up everywhere, and they had a great run for 30+ years. Now, shopping malls are looking like ghost towns, and only the best (malls, and stores within those malls) will survive. In order for the better retailers (the stocks worth over $1.5B) to survive, a lot of the weaker ones (the stocks worth $500mm or less) will finally need to go bankrupt and shutter their doors. There is too much competition between them and they are constantly offering Black-Friday-type deals all year round, cutting out each other's profit. Every clothing store in the mall has had signs in the window that say "SALE! 30-50% OFF!" for the last couple years. They're just cutting each other at the knees, and they'll keep doing it until some of the weaker players leave the table.

  • Reply to

    ARO is Not Cheap Yet

    by jonathan.loewer Aug 3, 2012 1:27 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Just coming back to emphasize just how long some of these stocks can fall. When they break down, they stay broken down, and sometimes even fall more precipitously. That is why bottom-fishing usually fails as an investment strategy. I am still bearish two-and-a-half years later.

  • jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Yes, I hope it shows up tonight, too. I am a little worried about tonight though since many of the retailers reporting this week have gotten battered (GES down 8%, EXPR down 10%, ARO down 22%, JCP down 12%, and many other retailers have been falling based on those results plus news that Black Friday wasn't so great). We'll see in a few hours. Of course, AEO is in good shape because it has cash-on-hand and, like you said, they have stayed on top of inventory, keep costs down, and shutter unprofitable locations.

  • jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 4, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    I agree. I really like their store layout and clothing for the fall and winter season. I just hope that ANF's and ARO's results aren't a pre-cursor of AEO's. PSUN had a good quarter with positive comps again, so hopefully AEO will also have similar comp increases. I'm right there with you in the same boat: Long 800 at 14.19. I've traded around a core position since 2011 buying more when it fell and selling them off when it rose, but always kept at least 100 shares since 2011.

  • Reply to

    WTSL JOEZ APP

    by kwaijhie Dec 2, 2014 1:05 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 2, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Oh, how could I forget BodyCentral... There's another one--of many--that are zombie retailers that are just walking dead, and have sent investors money to the grave yard.

  • Reply to

    WTSL JOEZ APP

    by kwaijhie Dec 2, 2014 1:05 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Dec 2, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    Actually, a couple of the retailers need to disappear. There was never that necessary cleansing during the Great Recession. A whole bunch of companies from almost every sector went under during the Great Recession, however, all the clothing retailers either had private-equity firms come in and take them private (Talbots, True Religion Jeans, Lucky Brand Jeans, Hot Topic), or they just offered secondary stock offerings to come up with the necessary cash (Wet Seal, Coldwater Creek, PacSun, JCPenney), or they had a private-equity firm or angel investor come in and put in a lot of money (American Apparel, Aeropostale, PacSun, Destination XL, JCPenney, Express) to ensure they had liquidity. Only Coldwater Creek actually disappeared since the Great Recession; all the other shopping-mall retailers are still there. The clothing retailers are killing each other with Black-Friday-type sales all year round for the last couple years because there are so many of them competing with each other. If WTSL, APP, PSUN, JOEZ, CACH, ARO, or any combination of these companies would just finally die off and close their doors, the others might be able to not only survive, but thrive.

  • Reply to

    Still Cheap on a Price-to-Revenue Valuation

    by jonathan.loewer Sep 11, 2014 12:08 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Nov 17, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    And yes, the 47% increase in top-line revenues did not increase bottom-line profits. However, EBITDA earnings did increase by over $50K. You could reply that I am 'grasping for straws' by noting that, however, it is a good first step and it's an increase free cash flow.

  • Reply to

    Still Cheap on a Price-to-Revenue Valuation

    by jonathan.loewer Sep 11, 2014 12:08 PM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Nov 14, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    With this new quarter, with the 47% increase in top-line revenues, its trailing revenues over the last four quarters is $48.3mm. Now the market cap is $9mm. So now the company is 18.9% of trailing revenue. As the report states, the Wal-mart exposure, and the new Toys-R-Us additions, will only increase those revenues. Just as the title of this article stated regarding last quarter, the same is true this quarter: With this single-digit P/E and a price-to-revenue valuations of 18.9% means that this stock is still very cheap.

  • jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Nov 14, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    Yes, I heard the forward guidance with expectations for positive comps. However, I just thought that low-single-digit increases compared back to a disappointing and unprofitable base would not be enough to turn the stock around... I guess it's like JCPenney. They had negative-30% comps in 2013 so when they reported slightly positive comps in 14 the stock spiked, but I thought... "Ummm... still really bad when compared back to '12." 2013 was such a low hurdle that I expected investors to demand better than just low-single digit comps for JCP. I expected the same here with COSI.

  • Reply to

    Picked up 20,000 at .64 thank you!

    by tazzsnaper Nov 14, 2014 10:32 AM
    jonathan.loewer jonathan.loewer Nov 14, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    That could work very nicely for you. All the company has to do is put out a letter that says "We got this!" or "We're on this" (even if they don't 'got it' or if they're not 'on it') and the stock will make up half of today's losses for a 15-20% pop.

BKS
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