Not sure who is handing out the red thumbs? Howd you like the AP release... missed EPS estimates lol. No mention of the 9cts per share charge on the tanker sale, otherwise would have been a major beat top and bottom imo. Ridiculously cheap equity here even for a tanker co
Today is time to harvest gains imo, prices are still not recovering enough for IPI to make money here, they are high cost producer. Was a nice buy 3 weeks back at under a buck just on technicals but I have little confidence things are improving, just looking at potash prices are really still too low.
Ok now I have a big swing position lol, $5.90 this Am... really? Avg entry now $6.05... waiting for some bad news now since apparently this stock works in reverse... down on good news and up on bad news? This is what happens when shorts hijack your stock
Some idiots from the HZNP board follow me around for saying bad things about their great stock. I shorted it from $34 last year and covered around $16 and they think it was my fault or something. That's what you get for screwing with professional paid pumpers lol
Four months now of dark from the light bulb guys. Kind of bizarre, Yan's own company investigating him and outside lawyers watching every move for the class action. This company has been dark for most of its first couple years of being listed and liquidity for the shares is gone. Somewhere behind all this drama is a company that supposedly has some value still, we can at least see they have product on the shelves and a building here in Ohio. I remember when the Hauser case was active people were following that case online, anyone following these class action guys?
I looked at the V patent and the primary utility is 5 years out, there was a process patent granted extending the life but I think that would cover the way the tablet is constructed with layers, and its method of action etc. Not sure if another company just glued a prilosec and advil together if it would prevent that?
Elaborate for me, no I did not read those I looked at the latest SEC file which shows debt principal repayment due in next 5 years to be quite low actually. Presumably after the initial 5 year period annual principal is much higher
Short interest was up 1.5M last month from prior. Total now is like 13% of float. I am of the opinion its the debt holders who are major shorts, they have big risk here since repayment terms are very lazy for 5 years and then substantial repayments start. Am I wrong to think in 5 years the V patent is gone and it is a major cash flow contributor, D goes 2 years later. Both combined are 1/2 of sales. They really do need these new drugs you speak of so highly to be major success but what is the patient population? I'm thinking the prices will have to be astronomical on these so what is the game plan if BS or Trump are elected? Have you looked at some of the state proposed legislation on drug pricing? Scary
D&V are 7 and 5 years I recall, not sure what life is left on V really since there are different claims with different lives. Using the logic of adjusted EPS, the best thing that could happen here is a goodwill impairment charge since would that not also be a huge add back? Is nonsense really
Orphans are limited in number of patients, frankly I've never heard of anyone with FA or refractory gout for example so they are extremely rare. As far as cancer & oncology, I'm a skeptic on interferons due to having had melanoma and cured it without that toxic stuff. Interferons are old tech imo and cause mucho side effect that lasts for a long time. Anyway, will they have to raise prices substantially on these new drugs to make back their nut ? The environment now for drug price increases is really touchy I think.
I still hold some energy plays, SXE is almost fully valued now, LGCY could easily move 25% up, AT will eventually be over $3 with the refi of those convert notes which were short the commons. Insiders are buying that one like crazy which I like obviously. Shorting these last year was like shooting fish in a barrel but the easy money played out already, now ride them back up to fair value I think is the move but oil needs to find solid ground in the mid 40's for it to really work. Good luck, don't bet the farm obviously.
I think they need to do some acquisitions quick with their cash. I've modeled these financials and the conclusion is that they must continue to add more patent rights costs (on the balance sheet of course) to increase the amortization that they are adding back to their adjusted EPS numbers which make it look like a growth business and therefore justify that sort of premium. The stock price must also go up since this was the currency they formerly used to make buys (which worked great before the political troubles for the rollups caused their stock price to decline).
This makes sense why the GAAP EPS is very low is because in reality land, they are basically earning a little more than what they paid for the drug rights but not much profit for shareholders after royalties, commissions, etc. BTW, the use of adjusted EPS here is extremely misleading as I mentioned that is normally used for long lived assets (like buildings and such) which actually go up in value due to inflation or other factors and does not fall off a cliff eventually like a patent value does in addition to loosing ability to generate cash revenue.
When their patent right amortization slows so does adjusted EPS number and when patent expiration comes I would presume generic competition erodes their franchises which means GAAP EPS never really rises once the amortization is completed. So its basically a rocket type of stock that needs to achieve escape velocity or gravity brings it back down. If it does not grow quickly it fails a few years out. I think the current environment is hard to grow however with all the Fed and State legislatures talking about drug price restrictions and such. Additionally O's new anti tax inversion proposal really hurts since it makes US based aqcuisitions difficult and our country is the only one that is hands off (for the time being) on drug pricing. So good luck, congratulation on the nice gain today, I didn't buy any after kicking the tires. Hope you make money
Is happening now, I always thought most of the shorts were from the convertibles which are being refi'd. So no more need for a short position to hedge the debt... should get up and head back over $3 soon enough. A little concerned over the new facility having that mandatory sweep but forced deleverage will ultimately reduce longer term risks.
If I bought all my food last year with cash and put it in a freezer to eat this year it still cost me cash right? I just paid for it last year is all. For example Crealta they paid cash right? When they start selling Krystexxa you consider all the revenue to have no cost? I think in a nutshell this is my problem with HZNP
Im a trader, not an investor. In the past I was an investor but discovered I was a much better short term swing trader reacting to events rather than being slammed by them. I sometimes have crazy tax bills to pay when I'm successful but I don't mind that. I kind of thought this would run up again into earnings but am having second thoughts. I just don't understand this EBITDA thing and why its considered an accurate measure of the company success. For example, if I add back my food and housing cost it looks like I'm doing fantastic but when I subtract my real costs its a different story?
i think you are correct, no way they can achieve a 6 pe on GAAP numbers. Is it normal in this industry to use EBITDA instead of earnings? EBITDA is often used where companies are depreciation or amortizing assets which in reality have long lives, for example a building or pipeline with high residual or replacement value. Why is it normal to use that measure here? To me is unrealistic because the asset is a patent that probably has a finite life. When you try to sell an expired patent it has little value due to generics so I'm concerned about that. Seems like something that should be discussed more here? I think amortization of patent or license costs is really more like their cost of sales since they are selling their patent exclusivity in reality, they paid cash for it in the past so to me its hard to argue there is no cash cost for it. Granted the cash for the patent rights was spent in prior accounting periods. Perhaps is more like inventory where you buy it and store the value on the balance sheet then charge it off to the income statement when the stuff gets sold.
Forward PE is 6? How does that square with past results? I cannot see how this occurs unless it is really EBITDA number so I'm looking for the smartest person in the room to help explain it. We can all learn from this brilliant person who will come forward shortly and reply to this message with an awesome explanation we can all go to school on. Thanks
I bought a bunch of their bulbs before prices really went down 2 years back but they are still going strong. Just one of them in the kitchen had trouble which I think was from a large microwave oven causing power spike or something. Took it back to Home depot and they exchanged for a new one. I really wish this company would turn their own lights back on... public companies don't get any darker than this
I will join you for a small swing position at $6.25 This is way oversold here. Just on technicals is due for bounce.
Christ there you guys go again with the red thumbs, oh well I'll take my marbles elsewhere. Just trying to see what you all are thinking about this PE thing but its not important so never mind