The truth hurts doesn't it Petey. Defensive posts are a sign of mental illness. I think there is a funny farm near Center Valley. Why don't you get some help. You seem to be the one fascinated with the anus, not me.
The stock is valued at $20+ right now because the estimates are probably over the next 12 months. They are expecting Japan approval soon and US approval next summer. That's when you get the bump to $20+, not now. Even when Japan approval happens and everyone on this board believes it will, we will not be in the $20's. Probably mid $17's for a few days and then we settle back down again in mid $14's. If you want to time the market or play the charts, just keep looking at the recent trading history. The first two days after news the stock is up. the second day's volume is usually about half that of the first day and after the pre-market and early session pop, the sentiment changes to over bought and the shorts take over. Just like clockwork. Look at ARNA right now. Received good news on Friday and jumped 17%, today volume is down slightly and so is % increase. Tomorrow we probably top out close to $6 as options expire this Friday and guess at what level...$6. Get the strategy. The following Monday the PPS will be allowed to run again.
Bottom line of new channel is forming and indicating a price range about $11 in the near term which coincides with a gap fill at $11.10 just prior to Phase II news announcement. When charts become predictable, that's where the real money can be made. If you liked the chart pattern a few weeks before the Phase II news then this new channel will be accurate as well. Just wait for it and buy more then.
I loved your chart updates when things were going up but since the stock has tanked, you've been silent. Charts don't work when PPS drops that fast??
Seriously Tele, if you need a few bucks to get some help, I'll sell a few shares and set you up with a good psychologist.
MGM, I do understand the purpose of these conferences. It's just that so many people seem to make them out to be something they are not. I just verbalized it for what it was. A $2 pop is nothing because as you have seen first hand with this stock, in less than a week we went from $14.74 down to $12.16. That's over $2 in a weeks time. See it does correct it self regardless of news and upgrades. If I would have sold say at $14.50 (which did not) because I did not hit my sell target, I would have an entry point that's 18% better. We are still going to close the gap at $11.10 and know one will convince me otherwise. It could happen in the next two weeks, then it's time to buy more, NOT NOW!
I keep telling you people I do not short. I get out with a profit, wait for the pull back and buy back in. It's that simple people. Shorts actually made what I do possible. Without them constantly pulling the PPS back down from time to time, I wouldn't get what I have. If you think that's shorting than you are clueless. I just have a knack for the charts, understand how biotech works from the trading side and react accordingly. I don't win all the time and I have bought back in at higher levels than originally planned but that's the risk.
I wasn't expecting anything from the conference, it's all the others on the MB that think it was going to be an event. People think that Ron was going to announce a BO or something like that. These are for PR only and very rarely do they yield anything that is not already known. I've learned over tome that these events do nothing short term at all.
Gardening is hardly a fast thing. The time it takes to produce a flower, vegetable or fruit is many months not days. I invest the same way. I put a little effort in everyday and reap the harvest when it's ready.
That's not realistic and you know that. Those who take advantage of the cycles are the ones that make the most.
You know as well as I know that those numbers are released just to attract new money in hopes of a quick run up which allows shorts a quick profit off of the weak. Until Japan's approval we settle in the mid 12's or so. Even when it happens a 40% increase is still only mid $17's. We will need US approval to break $20 mark which still close to 9 months from now. I can double my share position between now and then and reap a huge payday on the markets money not mine between now and then.
It seemed like a lot of people were expecting a quick run up to $15-$17 level which never happened. Since the "short term" catalysts are now over for a while, why sit and hold just to watch the PPS meander between stagnant levels when you can get aggressive on a weekly basis, buy and sell and increase your position WITHOUT always spending more cash. That's my whole point! I am not afraid of missing something because I was temporarily out of the stock, so what. This business happens in cycles so if you miss one, there always will be another one following.This is a long term investment. I just accumulate shares my way which allows me to use my free cash for other things. If you don't like the way I invest, tough. It works for me and that's all the matters. Right Petey!!
Tells me that we will have tug of war for control next week with little news to propel buyers. Shorts know they have a few weeks to try and knock it down.
BP is not going to take on unnecessary risk without approvals first. Why would they?? They could get two big ones within 2014. Of course with approval they will pay more which is to the share holders benefit.
I never heard of a conference that was so over hyped and delivered so little. If it wasn't for the Phase II news we would have dropped either way. Has anything come out of the conference that was note worthy? If we get back to mid $14's I would sell and wait to get back in around high 11's or low 12's. There is no reason for this stock to push to new highs the rest of this year. Yeah you can say there may be a BO, nope too early for that. You say Japan approval is imminent, I agree but not until after new year most likely. What else could possibly make it go up in the near future, someone enlighten may if you can. Trying not to be negative but I just don't see the next 6 weeks being nothing but flat lined around the $13 line (+/-) 0.50 either way.
Why would you assume that the date of release would automatically be pushed up instead of being delayed until after the new year?? That's what people on the MB do. They make statements that have no facts or reason behind them to serve their point.