and the other fella that bought all those OAS shares recently. Got to wonder if there wasn't a mid-night showing of Dumb and Dumber happening and the select few were the only invitee's. Holy cow John Sculley should be hiding like a lamb about to get slaughtered cause if you think about it....he's gonna look alot like valueguy_65, right quickly, but with alot bigger hole in his underwear. Then again, Sculley will probably still have a roof over his head somewhere, and valueguy_65 won't ...... As the English say..... Pity, Bloody pity ! LOLOLOLOL
If this is the post from Dan Nathan of the FAST MONEY Group you read....You may want to read it again....He's being polite when he states: "This seems like an odd way to make a bullish bet" !. He should have been frank and said What a Dumb Bet LOLOLOL I bet ol' valueguy_65 pulled that dumb move out of his book of Stupid Trading Tips... LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
OAS - in Monday’s trading we highlighted opening put selling in the beleaguered E&P stock:
Shares of the E&P company are down 20% on the year and 76% since August. When the stock was $13.40 there was an opening seller of 24,000 May 10 puts in blocks between .85 and .80.
Yesterday saw more opening put selling as 24,000 of the May 11 puts were sold to open at 1.05 when stock was 12.88. This seems like an odd way to make a bullish bet on a stock down 80% from its highs, capping your gains to just 1.05. You never know, this could be a short (18% short interest) putting in a limit on where to cover.
Seems like, starting to smell like, and sure looks like the cauldron is back on the big ol' bed of coals and things are heatin' up again for a major crashola!
Back in 2006, I was travelling extensively thru the country observing how many people were unemployed and Yet, above all else; Heard them say they applied and received a mortgage. No Job, No Food, No Life and some tool shed (scam artist) at the end of the block had a shingle waving in the wind...Mortgage Lender.
I came home and immediately shorted the entire housing sector. From builders to developers, then shorted all the energy companies, producers, service sector, U name it, I won big. I AM NOT BRAGGING.... I have a track record, in both the Oil and Gas Sector and the Stock Market. I DON'T NEED THE MONEY! And there are people on this board who defy logic and common sense when a few of us are posting common sense by spreading the gospel of "TRUTH" when we say Oasis is "Dead Company Walking" and with wobbling legs, the fragile support structure(Institutional Players) are waning. Once in the Vortex, the black hole tends to expand with no boundaries and zero light. In other words, all who get sucked into such a predicament never ever survive. Some dude named "valueguy-65" comes to mind as a person in need of some common sense. But first, a little advise dudley... do some homework. That means you read everything and anything about that thing you need to understand before you spend a penny of YOUR MONEY on that thing called an "investment".
If... and that's a big "IF", you lose that money, then you failed miserably because you didn't do your homework when it was free and you had money. Now your broke as a post and desperate and looking more like a Villager who's lost the Village than someone who's seen this before and can't help but reflect, share and send along the last free thing you'll receive.... well wishes. Good Luck "valueguy_65".
hey valueguy....LOLOL You sure do type alot but your statements are meaningless. What's your point cause I sure can't figure it out. GL
hey valueguy....I know for a fact OAS IS NOT SHIPPING by rail anything at all.
1) Cushing Oklahoma if FULL
2) Ships are FULL and sitting in the H20 waiting to be bought.
3) U.S. currently has over 2.0 million / BOE /day that they have no idea what to do with..
4) OAS is TOASTADO'S
nice post though....next time get your facts straight, and have a wonderful day :~)
are playing is coming to a slow end. The money flow has been negative and the volume of block trades has somewhat diminished. Option Traders however have hedged their bets to the sub $10 range. Only a little while longer before this shale company gets wiped out.
rschoen...U can't win them all. GL with OAS! Being an ex- O&G magnate, I predict with confidence all shale producers get taken to the cleaners along with their investors (both big and small). :~) Come back in 2 years and see how the sector is doing. Until then, go fishin' or golfin' like a few others I know, or take the bride on a nice holiday but don't be buying into Oil.
When we see single digit....I'll bet ya the Banks start calling OAS, and telling them their Line of Credit is being suspended until they meet their debt re-payments... OUCHie!
"all the downside is done"......LOLOLOLOLOL, If that's what U'r thinkin'...Lots of Luck goin forward sam! LOLOL
With this unprecedented selling volume, the Big Dogs who were holding are now DUMPING like it's a Fire Sale... Paulson (I'm guessing) being today's party, so expect a systematic downward progression by all the other major holders. Looking at "Options" being traded, $8 seems like a bottom benchmark. Have a Great Weekend all :~)
One such stock that you may want to consider dropping is Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS), which has witnessed a significant price decline in the past four weeks, and it has seen negative earnings estimate revisions for the current quarter and the current year. A Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) further confirms weakness in OAS.
A key reason for this move has been the negative trend in earnings estimate revisions. For the full year, we have seen 5 estimates moving down in the past 30 days, compared with just 1 upward revision. This trend has caused the consensus estimate to trend lower, going from $2.50 a share a month ago to its current level of $2.49.
Also, for the current quarter, Oasis Petroleum has seen 4 downward estimate revisions versus 1 revision in the opposite direction. The consensus estimate is currently pegged at 59 cents.
The stock also has seen some pretty dismal trading lately, as the share price has dropped 16.8% in the past month.
pip..there is alot of funny money invested in this company (funny money = fugetaboutit )....when you have a company that is basically a wildcat outfit of explorers, publicly traded who DO NOT have a dividend for all that funny money probably have not modeled into their business plan a zero life expectancy. Two (2) years going forward is (2) years of lucky charmes for their personal well being, and the big block investors obviously understand "risk capital". The retail investor however does not, and they are pretty much all gone or soon to be. The Hedgies who originally thought drilling short term (producable zones) for a big return never imagined Oil to turn south as fast as it has. Now that everyone understands North American sustainability going forward, all that anyone can expect is the obvious and that's M & A when the waters settle. Before anyone looks at Oasis, they will have to prove reserves because probable numbers are non-negotiable. I'm really hesitant to believe OAS has established geology and leases that reflects substantial returns.
the result going forward is the same.. DIRE! 1) Since late Nov / Early Dec. when the price fell, the money flow has gone against the company 2) When SPO came on board as the so called life saver, money flow turned around to the positive (no suprise) 3) Since Dec. ~ 22nd-23rd, money flow has turned negative and one can only speculate the Hedgies are dumping precipitously. At no other time since this company has traded publicly has the daily trading volume commencing ~ Nov. 2014 been this high. When your seeing red charts, you know shares are bleeding and once the blood letting starts, we all know what happens. Lastly, there are alot of Options being hedged in that $10 price range which indicates someone out there knows something so if anyone out there still thinks (God Forbid) that OAS is going to the moon, better book an appointment with their medical advisor and get a prescription filled. Any day now ....any day another collapse will occur, analogous to a sink-hole ....... :~)
Another factor to consider is all the American "Shale" companies in Calgary who have slashed their 2015 budgets by half along with employees. Projected rigs needed for 2015 has decimated, and the big driller in Canada (Precision Drilling) isn't looking very healthy. Some analyst figures 7500 wells will get drilled in 2015. How he came up with that number is an unknown but from Daily Oil Bulletin Drilling report, all the wells initially proposed as exploratory have been removed. Development wells are on hold. And all producers are expecting Significant Service Sector cost cuts..... If this lasts for 2 years as some sage heavy weights have predicted, alot of personal B.K.'s are going to happen and .... looks like housing is next to fall.....
couldn't agree more. Prior to OAS reporting, expect trading volume to increase, and share price to dwindle further. The debt to equity ratio will keep expanding especially with no light in the tunnel regarding a bounce back in $/BOE. This does put the executive against the wall with zero wiggle room. How are they going to explain debt re-structuring and with who can they possibly construct such a feat? NOBODY.... I agree they won't go bankrupt quite as soon as previously discussed, but the longer the price stays at these levels the harder the climb for OAS and for that matter all the shale companies. When you have a 15% depletion rate in the zones they produce from, life expectancy for these companies to sustain probable expectations is hyperbola. They need proven metrics v. probable to have any interested parties even think of sitting at the table to invest.
pip, obviously the dude is losing his investment and is venting. As we all know, (the shorts, that is) these rookies lose and the shorts who have been warning them to get out...win. Not rocket science anymore....just common sense. Supply v. Demand
LOLOLOLOL.... Thank - you for your charitable contribution. I believe your an employee of OAS and looking for a bigger roll of T.P. as this share price breach's $9. You better get out there and hustle up some more. You should disclose when your selling the house so everyone can come to the live auction LOLOLOL
hey Ted...what's your point? LOLOLOL U better dump those options your holding before they turn to T.P. for the outhouse walls LOLOL