The high pressure off the pacific that has sent storms to the north and Midwest and east, and has given California record drought has finally broken. California is being soaked in rain, while the rest of the country will go away from winter weather and start warming up. Don't get caught holding Natural gas at these prices.
From new technology and fracking. We had over a 1000 rigs going 5 years ago and now we have less than 400 yet we are producing more than ever before.
So what, the ability and technology to replenish are reserves get better everyday. The country has 100 years of proven natural gas reserves. In North Dakota alone we flare $100 million dollars worth of natural gas a month!! Inventories and supply numbers are meaningless because of how much we have and how quickly we can access natural gas. We have almost 70% less rigs drilling than we did 4 years ago yet we are producing more than ever before. This is all priced into natural gas, storage numbers are meaningless
Major shift in the pacific jet stream. Instead of storms being pushed north into the Midwest and into the east, the stream is now dumping much needed rain in California. The rest of the country will now begin to warm up, winter is coming to an end. Also after much hype over the "mother" of all withdrawls, it came in under estimates AGAIN! This was a bad winter, no doubt, but nothing unheard of. Prices will plummet soon
the pacific jet stream which has sent weather to the north and into the Midwest and east, and has given California its worst drought on record has finally begun to shift, rain for California and dryer warmer weather for the rest of you
Drawdowns will be much lower than expected going forward. When peoples heating bills double the first thing they do is turn the thermostat down and start using less. That's exactly what will happend the rest of the winter, people will not continue to pay these high prices, they will conserve like crazy
And this thursday will be at the low end as well, its been way to warm in the south and west. I have been saying this every week, and every week its been lower than expected. Natural gas is going to plummet hard in a few weeks, make your money now, just don't be a bag holder. Were producing more than ever before with 66% less rigs going, we flare a 100 million worth of Nat gas in northdakota each month. So much supply it's insane
It won't, every week has been below what has been expected. The west and south have been to warm this winter to have record draws. Watch it will be below estimates again and natural gas will plunge on the news
Yet the entire west coast is warmer that last year. I guess that's why the storage reports keep coming in below estimates
Ya, I've been looking out the window here in California for the last 2 months and all I have seen is new record highs on a daily basis. I guess that's why the storage reports keep coming in below estimates because the western half of the U.S. have been enjoying warm and sunny days all winter long. A few more weeks of winter and all this "fear" of supply shortage will go away and Natural Gas will plummet to "real" prices
nope, not gonna happened. The main reason for the higher than normal prices were because of the energy companies making the wrong bets about how much natural gas they were going to need for the winter. When they were on the wrong side of those bets they had to buy natural gas and extremely expensive prices. Once winter ends there will be no need to buy on emergency and prices will plummet to what the fundamentals deem a true value
This rally is driven by nothing more than fear, but I guess that is all the stock market is. The next storage report will come in below the estimates again because of how warm the west coast has been all year. Did anyone catch the article on Yahoo about the gas companies flaring off $100 millon dollars worth of natural gas a month in North Dakota. If we can flare off that much gas then supply is not an issue. Winter will be over in a few weeks and natural gas will plummet. Don't be bag holder at these prices, the fundamentals always win and their is no basis for these prices.
We have a 1000 less drills going then 4 years ago yet we are having record production. We will replenish are storage in no time come summer. Will be many years before we stay above $5. To much easy supply to get to with all the new fracking technology
NO, the price surged because to many power companies that don't have quick enough access to natural gas had to pay out the ears to get the natural gas to cover the rise in demand. Look at the draws for the last few weeks, not nearly as big as everyone thought, yet the price went through the roof still. Power companies weren't hedging having this much demand. Things are looking warmer for the for see able future. Price will drop back to $4 in a matter of months. Supply is plentiful and infrastructure is in place to drill for easy natural gas. Prices will be cheap for many years
Even with a huge drop in the number of drills, natural gas production is at an all time high. Cheap natural gas is here to stay for many years
we have 28 days to see what happens. My bet is natural gas is going to start dropping very quickly. Weather pattern is warm for the next week and then were looking at possible snow meaning there shouldn't be record cold. I have a feeling we had an early winter and will have an early spring. That's just my bet. Either way the last storage draw proves that we are no where near having to worry about a short in storage.
I think the lower than expected storage draw proves that the west coast matters as well. If the whole country was in a below normal temperature pattern then I'm sure we would've seen a blowout on the storage draw. But you factor in the 100 million people in the west and down south that have had record heat and droughts, it just evens everything out. I haven't turned my heater on since December.
Storage draw numbers were no where near the blowout everyone thought and that is because people don't take into account the weather pattern the western half of the U.S is having. While everyone else is having record cold, we are having record heat. Besides a freak few days, the south has also been seeing record highs. Record cold plus record highs cancels out to an average winter. Storage numbers maybe a little lower than the norm, but not nearly low enough to justify such a huge run-up in the natural gas price. The high prices were mainly due to spots on the east coast who weren't betting on this much cold and had to pay outrageous prices to keep up with demand. We had an early start to winter, don't be surprised if we have an early start to spring, this may all just workout to be another average winter