Thanks. This might be it. So it would be neither my option a) nor b). What you say sounds very plausible. All is left is to wait for the earnings.
Yes. Today market up nicely, yesterday very good news on Purion M sale, the stock is seriously oversold and today Axcelis is down again. Amazing?
I still have only two possible scenarios;
a) The Q2 quarter data is bad and it leaked or
b) some fund is liquidating its holdings.
There is no other explanation of this drop.
It has been a long time since last such announcement. The stock had a mini pop by a nickel. Big volume again. I think the seller took advantage of the news and got rid of more stock.
Somebody here posted that insider(s) are selling recently. Where can I find this information?
Axcelis is sinking on the up market. Sinking on big volume. Something might be on the matter. A big miss is a big possibility. Another is that somebody needs to sell for non Axcelis reasons. If the first is the case then everybody should be selling if the second is the case then this is a great buying opportunity.
Which it is - nobody knows.
Well, almost nobody.
Looks like Axcelis is now firmly below two dollar level. Lately the whole market is down but Axcelis price action shows weakness even after adjusting for the whole market. Looks like Axcelis is weak on its own. This is unlikely somebody liquidating large position because volume is low or average. Why such weakness? Maybe Q1 quarterly results are not too good? The management guided $60M to $66M with tiny profit. Maybe this is not going to happen. If sales turn out around $50M then we might see $1.50 again. I have no idea what it is going to be, but this price action looks like a bad omen.
I have no idea why Zack has been bashing Axcelis three times in a row. They indeed write a bunch of nonsense using some partial old data cherry picked to make a negative point. Why do that? As far as Q1 results I'm not sure that these will be so good. Hard to tell. Is Purion indeed selling so well? There were a few sales announcements but will these add up to something significant? If the results are bad again like sales of $50M and loss of 1-3 cents then the stock will take a dive well under $2. We might see $1.60-$1.80 if the results are bad.
What is there to buy? Styling of model S aside, the real value should be in technology. In this case battery technology.. Tesla S uses a modified Panasonic NCR-18650A which is basically the old fashioned AA battery sold for many years. The “technology” developed by Tesla is the methods to mount 7000 thousands of these AA in a way that these batteries will work in unison and will not catch fire. Tesla patents deal with several wraps and spray on substances to prevent battery cells catching fire. No other EV car maker uses such old AA (18650 type) batteries. Most car makers use newer pouch cells in their packs. This is why the Tesla “technology” has little value for them. Tesla used old AA cells to save on development costs. Now they face a dilemma; manufacture the old AA battery packs in the future Giga-factory or develop new technology akin to one used by other car makers. But if they abandon the old AA then all the vaunted “technology” will have to be abandoned. (This “technology” only applies to AA.) Tesla would have to play catch-up. If Tesla continues with the AA (18650s) then they will keep on going deeper into dead ended obsolete technology.
The obvious question is; what “technology” is there to buy for Google. None! GOOG will do best to leave for Tesla guys to solve the above quandary.
I was just browsing on AliExpress (retail arm of Alibaba) and found that on the bestseller tablet list, number 4 is Gooweel G10X tablet 10inch Capacitive screen ATM7029. This is very good news since till now Actions was only in Ainol and Ramos.
By the way number 3 from the top of the list was white box P706 using ATM7021. Big number of orders. Number one on the list was white box using Allwinner A23 Dual-Core SoC. The difference in orders between no 1 and number 3 was very small. Seems like Actions chip is taking some market share. AcliExpress is a huge web retailer selling all over the world.
I would like to become a paid basher. Where can I apply for this job? I spend a lot of time at home and have a Windows 7 PC hooked up to internet. If anybody wants to hire me to bash Tesla then I report my availability.
I believe that Tesla stock is ridiculously overpriced, but this Apple thing made me think. Apple has a lot of lose cash and very few good ideas what to do with this. Visionary Mr. Jobs is gone and the guys left behind are just clueless bureaucrats. These clueless guys are under strong pressure to do something bold to make Apple cool again. Here comes Musk with his Tesla. Tesla is not a great technological achievement (about this some other time) but Tesla PR machine is great and it created perception that Tesla is cool. If Jobs were around he would immediately see that Tesla has little value but these current clueless Apple manager will not see this because they are clueless. These guys might just want to prove that they can do daring, brave things and they will buy Tesla paying through their noses.
Similar thing on a smaller scale happened three years ago. HP bought useless Palm technology for a billion dollars only to write it all off two years later.
Profit is still very tentative. They showed just a penny profit for the first time. It might portend future profits, but the name of the game is orders. They are very well positioned with the Purion line to get lots of orders. Now they have to show the "beef".
More on the competitors:
The following are some of the most popular tablet makers in China:
Yuandao M10 - RK3188, 10.1", 1920x1200
iFive 3 - RK3188, 9.7", 2048x1536
Onda v975m - M802, 9.7", 2048x1536
iFive X3 - RK3188, 10.1", 1920x1200
The above are some top tablet makers. Would be nice if some of the above used Actions chip set in the future. At the moment Ainol and Ramos use Action SoCs. These are also popular.
PS: Many people are looking forward to both A80 and RK3288 chip releases from Actions competitors.
In the past she made mistakes, however this time I fail to see the mistake. The Q4 report was very good. Sales up, first time profitable etc. The revenue was within guidelines set at Q3 conference. It was never amended since. She did all as promised. Sure that she could have surprised with sales around $65M but this is not a blunder on her part.
I truly do not understand why the stock got punished after the CC.
Tesla book value is $4. Price to earnings is in the hundreds. No patents for some important technology except how to package AA batteries into one huge battery.
This stock price has no relation to the real value. It can end up anywhere. If it goes from $186 to $250 then it will be widely overpriced if it goes down to $100 it will also be widely overpriced.
At this point it is like playing with funny money. The price might end up anywhere. No rhyme or reason to this. Pure emotion and hype.
Looks that price is very weak. Down a nickel on a huge up day. Very weak performance. I'm waiting for $2 to get in. Starts looking like this will likely happen. If the market went down today then ACLS would be at $2 or maybe lower.
Puma is responsible for total reorganization of the company. Purion line is her doing. It puts ACLS at the top of implantation market with best product available. She is also a good salesperson.
The last report shows great improvement on every front. Most of all on the strategic position of the company.
Investors clearly expected some more, mainly extra $3M in sales. At the moment Axcelis stock got sold out and lost some value. Not much. Blaming Puma is unfair. She made serious mistakes many years ago. Her performance over the last three years is excellent.