What's love got to do with it? Even today at a higher price than when most people on this message board bought their initial stake, Nokia remains one if the most interesting free cash flow growth stories out there, one with well-defined milestones that anybody can use to manage their exposure.
Maybe you should focus on what you are not doing right instead of making wild-eyed generalizations of what are people are doing. That's usually the sign of a loser.
I certainly wouldn't mind if that were the case. This is only going to be the second full quarter of earnings since they finalized the transfer of D&S to Microsoft. Nokia needs to make their licensing activities more transparent like the way Qualcomm reports its licensing activities. After Qcom sold its netwoks and handset businesses in 1999, it did a masterful job of showcasing their licensing activities to, among other things, nearly corner the market for scarce RF and SOC (system on a chip) engineers and scientists.
Naw, I prefer to have frenchie around than a drama queen like farhan. At least frenchie knows how to build a joke.from scratch. He could reduce the number of posts and increase the quality, but whatever! It is a free country and you are free to ignore.
Farhan has nobody to blame but himself, really. Last earnings report he predicted that Nokia would beat estimates and the stock would jump $2-$3 as a result. Idiot obviously was talking up his $9 and $10 calls.
He lost some of the goodwill and credibility he built up over the years with his solid but not particularly insightful commentary. Then the last few weeks he lost it all by trying too hard to convince people that, really, he was a very good investor who could change his mind in a split second, just like an HFT algorithm.
He did say, as part of his long drawn out dramatic exit, that he would no longer share his observations about Nokia because he did not want to create any panic about the earnings report that presumably would move the stock $2-$3 lower. Imagine that!
Deutsche Telekom is probably the carrier to watch because of the importance of Mercedes Benz, BMW and Volkswagen to the German export machine. These are the carmakers that are already scaling in semi-autonomous technology (onboard radar, self-parking, etc) in their luxury vehicles. Not surprisingly , these were the same carmakers that also drove the adoption of built-in navigation in luxury vehicles in the late 90s. Navteq was then owned by Philips, the Dutch consumer electronics giant that spent more than $600M to develop the first automotive grade navigation database.
Siemens brought the DT account to the table when they formed the 50/50 joint venture with Nokia in 2006. NSN went live in 2007 and NSN/Nokia has been the lead vendor ever since.
At the recent CES, I think Nokia Networks and HERE showcased a vehicle-to-vehicle demo with latency under 50 ms. The goal is to get latency under 10 ms then under 5 ms. HERE already has the digital map part of that equation worked out. It has spent more than $2 billion in R&D over the last 4 years to produce the next generation HD maps that will be constantly updated in real time. Nokia Networks has already future-proofed its Flexistation base station platform by making it easy to update the software constantly. Now it's just a matter of letting the chip technology catch up. LTE-Direct is being standardized by Qualcomm, Ericsson, Nokia, etc. This currently appears to be the wireless protocol that will enable sim-enabled vehicles to communicate with each other and know their precise coordinates on the map in relation to each other without going through a data center. By 2016, Intel/Micron, Toshiba, Samsung Memory, etc will start rolling out their 3D memory technology. Latency is significantly reduced by putting the 3D memory chip as close to the integrated CPU/GPU chip as possible on the motherboard,and greasing the pathways between the semiconductor memory and the processor.
Google - 31.4%
Facebook - 7.8%
Microsoft - 2.5%
Yahoo - 2.5%
Twitter - 0.8%
Others - 55.0%
Total - 100.0%
No, you're off the hook since you stopped spouting the nonsense that HERE was bleeding cash because you considered that accrual losses and cash losses were the same. Good to see you looking behind your back, though. ;-)
By the way, I have you pigeonholed as saying that Intel is going to own the $20+B a year wireless chip market by 2015? Do you still think that is the case?
Google is out. It is going to be wrestling with European antitrust regulators for years.
Apple is out. As I explained in more detail previously, there is going to be a race to the courthouse between Apple and Nokia in 2017.
Facebook is a maybe. Yik Yak is an up and coming chat service that is very popular with college students. It only works when people are within 1.5 miles of each other and it sports a growing variety of features that use geocoding and geofencing. Facebook, however, locked itself into its current trading range because of its heavy spending plans so I doubt that they are in a rush to pay premium money for any large purchase.
Boring topic, planet. Last go around with this topic only showed that some Nokia shareholders didn't even know how to read the financial statements. I don't think anything is going to happen to HERE until the current Microsoft 4-year HERE licensing deal is up for renewal in 2018. Even now you can already tell that the competive enviroment in 3-4 years will be very from what it is today. Internally, the organic growth/acquisition calculus for HERE will be very different so the overall hold/sell calculus will be very different as well.
Huawei (20% sales growth/12% net margin) and ZTE (8% sales growth/3% net margin) previewed their 2014 numbers last week. Both are end to end wireline/wireless networking players with mobile device businesses.
Earnings should be decent all around even for ALU. Nokia will likely have the gentlest decline from the seasonally strongest December quarter to the seasonally weakest March quarter because of the Sprint and T-Mobile contracts, the Indian contracts and the increased spending by Europe's top carriers. Google's decision to become a MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) using the Sprint and T-Mobile networks will mean hefty upfront payments from Google that will strengthen the overall cash flow and wireless capex of both carriers throughout the year.
In terms of US market share, ATT and Verizon currently have around 37% market share each while Sprint and T-Mobile have around 14-15% share each. In terms of 2015 capex, ATT is at $18B, Verizon is at $17.5-$18B, Sprint is at around $8B and T-Mobile is at $5+B.
HERE should have a good number. North American and European car sales, particularly in the high-end segment, were very good during the December quarter and HERE should be able to post a 20+% in new car licenses, from 10+ million in 2013 to 12+ million in 2014. Automotive accounts for 55-60% of HERE revenues. Since D&S became part of Microsoft, it has posted smartphone sales of 5.3M in the June quarter to 9.3M in the September quarter. Guidance was flattish sequentially or around 9.3M in the December quarter. Yahoo gained some desktop search market share due to the Firefox deal. It is still not clear what percentage of those Microsoft and Yahoo licensing fees are fixed and variable (unit-based.)
I don't expect any major licensing news until the Samsung case is settled and we all know how the odds leg out on that one. There is at least a reporting lag of one quarter so the monster Apple quarter will probably not show up until the March quarter.
" ... Part of Windows Holographic is the "Microsoft HoloLens" headset, which you can see below. It's the "most advanced holographic computer the world has ever seen," Microsoft says.
It's fully untethered, and features see-through HD holographics. It also includes spatial sound, allowing you to hear sounds all around you. It also has advanced sensors that can capture environment information. What's more, the HoloLens features a built-in GPU and CPU.
"We invented a third processor. A holographic processing unit," Microsoft said. "The HPU gives us the ability to understand where you're looking, to understand your gestures, to understand your voice, to spatially map your environment, to run without wires ... all in real-time."
It also sounds like Microsoft's new holopgraphic technology doesn't intend to compete with virtual reality companies such as Oculus VR.
"Oculus, Magic Leap, Glass developers and everyone else, we humbly invite you--come create holograms with us," a representative said.
HoloLens will work entirely as a standalone device--you won't need a phone or a PC to use it ... " [GameStop]
Thanks, but checkmate implies end of game. Zugzwang is probably more applicable to the kid. Zugzwang is the german term for that unfortunate situation in chess where every move you make only makes your position worse. The ex-doctor can always cut his losses by resigning and moving on to the next game.
So you're saying..... he's the self-proclaimed rising tide genius who wants to go momo and compete with high frequency trading algorithms so badly that he's turning himself into a human caricature of an algorithm?
5-year skunk works. Clean sheet. Supposed to be available this year with Windows 10. I'm getting one.
I've always wondered why Microsoft allowed Apple to buy PrimeSense, the supplier of the 1st generation Kinect 3D chips, for less than $300 million. At that time, I thought their 2010 Canesta acquisition had something to do with the different technical direction they were taking with Canesta, but it appears that may only have been part of it. As I mentioned before, Microsoft now has the broadest and deepest imaging assets out there -- from Pureview (2D) to Kinect (3D) to HoloLens (hologram.)
The Smart Glass category is currently going through the "trough of disillusionment" phase of the Gartner Hype Cylce (see below.)
Nokia licensed its optical waveguide technology to Vuzik in 2012 and it has complete access to Vuzik's core rendering technology that they have integrated with that technology so Nokia already has skin in that game. It appears, however, that it is Microsoft's HoloLens technology that is going to be that rare category killer that will create even more new categories. Best for Nokia to be a V-E-R-Y fast follower of this one.
Gartner Hype Cycle [Wikipedia]
1) Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.
2) Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.
3) Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
4) Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.
5) Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.
Frankly, your opinion doesn't really count, Farhan. You can't even defend your silly "at best 20% increase" number which you obviously just made up to make it seem like you know what you're talking about.
FYI, Nordea and Bernstein currently have the lowest estimate of the Samsung deal at around $300+ million a year or right around the same number that Ericsson got from Samsung. I disagree with those estimates, but those estimates have a rationale.
Your current estimate do not. And I really don't want waste time with your other punchdrunk opinions.
Best of luck!
No, you're just whipsawed from changing your mind too fast, too many times, sometimes over the same piece of partially-digested information.
Take your claim, for example, that Samsung will pay no more than 20% over the previous agreement.
By one estimate, Samsung paid $150-$200 million in royalties in 2013. So you are saying that Samsung will pay no more than $180-$240 mlllion in royalties to Nokia from 2014 to 2019.
Samsung is paying IDCC something like $80 million a year for the next 5 years. Samsung is paying Ericsson $300+ million a year for the next 5 years after making Ericsson go to court after 2 years of futile negotiations. And you expect Samsung to pay much less than Ericsson when Samsung publicly agreed to renew and to be the net payor even before its 2008 deal expired at the end of 2013.
Notice the disconnect?.......and the emotional turmoil that seems to surround your recent decision-making?
Take a break, friend.
I posted this in my trading journal on the day after the Samsung renewal was announced on 11/4/2013. The odds remain the same at this point in 2015.
The likelihood of a Samsung deal being announced by the end of 1Q2015 is 0. This would mean a 12-month negotiating period followed by a binding arbitration hearing lasting only 3-6 months. Nokia and Samsung, of course, are more than welcome to prove me wrong.
The likelihood of a Samsung deal being announced on or before the end of 2Q2015 is 1 out of 3. This would mean a 12-month negotiating period followed by a binding arbitration hearing lasting from 6-9+ months.
If that doesn't happen, the likelihood of a Samsung deal being announced on or before the end of 3Q2015 go up to 2 out of 3. This would mean a 12-month negotiating period followed by a binding arbitration hearing lasting from 9-12+ months.
Of course, if that doesn't happen then the likelihood of a deal being announced on or before the end of 4Q2015 go up to 100%. This would mean a 12-month negotiating period followed by a binding arbitration hearing lasting more than 12 months.
Nokia's recent binding arbitration record is inconclusive. Nokia vs Blackberry in Sweden in 2012 took less than 9 months and resulted in a Nokia win that lead to the early 2013 expansion of their existing licensing agreement. Nokia vs IDCC in the USA took more than 2 years and resulted in a Nokia loss of approximately $250 million in 2005.
'Dem are the mathematically proven odds ;-)