Marketing guy said PH3 customers don't really start up until 2H. That will keep sales ramp slow near term. Wild card is the new client with existing $4 bil sales product. Hope ur right. Calendar 2017 looks like a hugesales year.
Jerry outlined a very bright long term future but a fairly slow near term revenue ramp. Cash @ 6/30 is $4.5 mil, so a $2 mil cash burn. Expect one more cap raise before year end. No rev guidance. Gross margin was 37% and 60% was reiterated as long term goal. Company is cold chain provider for 78 clinical trials of which 13 are PH3. None of the PH3's are up and running yet. Hence the continued low sales run rate. Cyrx has a 19% share of the global PH3 trial market! Pretty impressive. My guess for FY 2017 is $10 mil rev, $4.2 mil gross profit and a $7 mil cash burn. Cash flow b/e sales now est. to be $14-16 mil so not until next summer.
This will be a $100 mil sales company within 5-6 years IMHO.
What is the present value of their potash deposit? I thinks it is a teensy bit higher than the current stock price.
Consider where the stock would be if antimony prices were $6-7/ lb. Output would be higher, cash would have been deployed to develop Los Juarez etc. management has done nothing really wrong here so I still hold about 60% of a $1.20 cost position.
I remember when people believed NYMX was not a scam. Met with the good Dr. A in 2006. He assured me that a funded PH III trial would start by year end. Since then, all that has been seen is a succession of the same data published over and over again. GL.
Short term, LR tanker rates below 1Q average, so, a sequentially down quarter is n store. Question is, how does market tighten enough to get rates back up? Div sustainability may come into question if 3Q also drops. Time to hunker down. Too late to sell.
I am. Like the bus model but balance sheet makes me puke. CEO is a Mike Milken protege. Has invested $5 mil of own money. Cannot get it back unless business is a success. Recent run up dampens my interest. Hoping for a pullback.
Despite 21 thumbs down, 2x peak sales for the single indication of PDP is reasonable. That offers a buyer a 5 year double assuming 4x peak sales as a terminal valuation. But, if the buyer believes as many of us do, that other indications will emerge over time, then the value quickly escalates.
ACAD has approved drug with similar receptor target. MC=$4 billion. NERV is 40 months behind. ITCI has a drug in PH III with similar receptor target. MC= $1.6 billion. NERV is 24 months behind. NERV MC= $350 million. All molecules have benign SE profiles. NERV looks very undervalued vs these comps.
Investors not impressed. Debt slightly less than expected at $23 mil. NO DIV BOOST! Unless margins improve, will see another year of neg cash flow and slightly higher debt to finance monster sales growth. Stock looks like a buy to me. Div boost and debt pay down must take back seat to huge growth for awhile.